dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty uneventful...mostly rain. I'm not totally surprised at this, It seems to struggle with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I hear these things and wonder... the last...I don't know... half dozen or so ice threats have either never materialized or have been minor (the mid- December one was ok) Even before the 2008 storm it seemed we had several in the mid 2000's that were better than the last few years. Ice doesn’t Mean damaging, but you just get them rather frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I hear these things and wonder... the last...I don't know... half dozen or so ice threats have either never materialized or have been minor (the mid- December one was ok) Even before the 2008 storm it seemed we had several in the mid 2000's that were better than the last few years. 12/17/12 was a pretty good one in ORH county...I remember getting around 3 tenths of ice accretion in that. Last 5 years though haven't had much...mostly minor events...though we had two this past December...Dec 12 and Dec 23-24. Huge ice events are rare though...even in the ice capital of New England...most are typically transition events or moderate to minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That high is in a good position. That’s usually a sign to take ‘em down. But nit sure it presses down enough to really go cold in SNE, save maybe Dave’s area. It would be nice to see if we can get a meso low to develop and tuck the cold in. for now ... more willing to bet it stops the GFS' warm sector-like solution entirely ... while landing us a tick or two too warm for freezing. But, things are in flux though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 GGEM is significantly warmer than 00z. That would be a non-event for most of New England except N ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Not the direction your looking for this to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 GFS trended towards euro. It’s surface temps are ridiculously warm though (as one would expect). 850 is as cold as the surface at 0z Tuesday in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Not the direction your looking for this to go. The high position is awful compared to 00z. The 12z run stays bottled up near Hudson Bay...doesn't impose its force down into Quebec and New England like the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 this is gonna wind up a who was 39f rain vs 34f rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The high position is awful compared to 00z. The 12z run stays bottled up near Hudson Bay...doesn't impose its force down into Quebec and New England like the 00z run. I’d rather have the GFS buy in than the GGEM. Modest changes on the GFS, but HP was def more like the euro in terms of position and how long it holds on for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The high position is awful compared to 00z. The 12z run stays bottled up near Hudson Bay...doesn't impose its force down into Quebec and New England like the 00z run. That certainly won't work verbatim, But then again, Its the GGEM, and its swings, Just have to keep monitoring this going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’d rather have the GFS buy in than the GGEM. Modest changes on the GFS, but HP was def more like the euro in terms of position and how long it holds on for. It did look slightly better, But we are still outside of the Meso's range on this too so we only have the global's to go by right now, We still have to see how the ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That certainly won't work verbatim, But then again, Its the GGEM, and its swings, Just have to keep monitoring this going forward. The 12z GGEM would represent a pretty epic fail for the EPS at 96 hrs. That’s night and day. The setup isn’t complex either... I’m flagging GGEM antics on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 12z GGEM would represent a pretty epic fail for the EPS at 96 hrs. That’s night and day. The setup isn’t complex either... I’m flagging GGEM antics on this run. Yeah, Tough to go against 51 other members to the op GGEM.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Rains to Maine. Not the best trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’d rather have the GFS buy in than the GGEM. Modest changes on the GFS, but HP was def more like the euro in terms of position and how long it holds on for. I would be careful you did this with the big rain/cutter where the EPS was much too cold and much too south in the end. GFS destroyed the Euro with that cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 The high can do whatever the hell it wants, but if it can’t press down...then you can whack it to positions all you want. There is a boundary near surface and just aloft over NNE. If that can’t muscle south then it’s not much frozen. The euro does this, while the others do not. The high is pressing it south but increased SW flow aloft fights this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 well... one up shot for a GGEM type evolution is that for SNE proper it keeps back-dooring contention out of the way for Sunday... That day becomes the warmer of the two. And, it's actually mild-like on Monday. i realize that pleasant waft air on weekends actually causes pain for a lot of users in this social media, ... but still, there is an upside for the majority of society. ha. this Euro run will be interesting after 00z trended more committed to the coast with more bl resistance. if it goes the other way so boldly, it would be on the rarer side to see that particular model do that at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 Folks seem like they wanna grouse regardless... but, fwiw, the NAM solution(s) for the 60- -84 hr frames wouldn't allow a GGEM solution anywhere over the real-estate of the NE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I would be careful you did this with the big rain/cutter where the EPS was much too cold and much too south in the end. GFS destroyed the Euro with that cutter. No that was much different. Not a good analogy. Also Euro may have been a bit too cold in the end, but it latched onto the colder track first. What was once a “cutter” tracked into SNE, and it was right about that critical aspect early on. We also didn’t have a good high with that one, as we do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Folks seem like they wanna grouse regardless... but, fwiw, the NAM solution(s) for the 60- -84 hr frames wouldn't allow a GGEM solution anywhere over the real-estate of the NE U.S. Yes...the high position is totally different...bottled up in Hudson bay versus pressing into Quebec would be night and day..esp for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 i suggest that GFS solution corrects south ... man, you'ss guys' panicked when you saw the GGEM ? oo kay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Gfs and euro are night and day at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: i suggest that GFS solution corrects south ... man, you'ss guys' panicked when you saw the GGEM ? oo kay. I don’t think people panic as the outcome means a cold rain or a warmer rain for most . We’ll see if Dr no budges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs and euro are night and day at 925. Yea. GFS is pretty laughable actually with 850’s looking colder than the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think people panic as the outcome means a cold rain or a warmer rain for most . We’ll see if Dr no budges. point being ...not the most reliable tool in the chest there - ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I'd use the Swiss for surface temps...but it only goes to Sunday at 9PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Ukie has no interest in a cold solution either. But that isn't a change from 00z...it was also warm at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'd use the Swiss for surface temps...but it only goes to Sunday at 9PM Extrapolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Euro looks cold again. 1036 mb high anchored over southern Quebec at hr 96. Def has a miller b look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.