Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The EPS was very cold in the mean. Almost Miller B style instead of a cutter. How many times have we seen this play, especially when systems cut so far west. Cryosphere FTW for you guys. Keeping huge tracts of Eastern Canada cold with deep snow pack definitely influences the overall pattern. Its not like down here near the coast where air masses overwhelm any cryospherically induced cold. Deep deep high pressure ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: Kind of how i envisioned this one, Comes in weaker and gets squeezed out underneath up here, Will have to watch it going forward to see if it continues, But that 3 runs now where this has been moving further south and iy has some support. Yea I certainly wouldn’t be betting against the EPS right now. The arctic is open and accessible, so I’m strongly leaning colder with this, and a GFS/GEFS cave. Climo also helps in these situations of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How many times have we seen this play, especially when systems cut so far west. Cryosphere FTW for you guys. Keeping huge tracts of Eastern Canada cold with deep snow pack definitely influences the overall pattern. Its not like down here near the coast where air masses overwhelm any cryospherically induced cold. Deep deep high pressure ftw A -NAO would have worked wonders for SNE with the way the arctic has been this season. It’s why the gradient has been so pronounced up here this season imo. -NAO is much more important as you lose latitude and that’s especially true closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 It's a front end transition to a miller B for NNE as it is ... or is most likely to be. Down here, as we discussed yesterday late afternoon and still ...that looks like an icy mess on the Euro. As other's have noted, perhaps even more so in the EPS mean. One thing concerning in either that oper. or ensemble mean, the polar high isn't dislodging and moving off to the east...it's really being undercut by this thing...that never ever ever sits well with removing ageostrophic flow regimes. ... we go through this over and over and over again ...year after year after year ... situation after situation after situation when the cold has a source, the models drill the low merrily to BTV... But, the colder solutions relative all always always always will win in that situation. I mentioned yesterday that some of the off-beat model types weren't far from committing to more of a miller B and clearly, this continues now indoctrinating the oper. Euro to do so as well. in fact, we see the lowest modeled pressure over eastern/SNE 00z next Wednesday, while the mid level cold/mechanics are now also being squeezed more east rather than rotating freely up into Canada. Hard to say if that latter aspect/behavior is why the GFS sees much less llv forcing to the coast than the Euro, but it does... either way, the Euro's superior resolution and correction schemes may have something to do with its seeing/resolving the llv/resistance over New England in general. That's why in a nut shell, the coldest solutions always win in a situation when there is an actual cold source feeding the llv mass fields. ... I find it interesting that the NAVGEM even gives more miller B tendency a nod. So what are we talking about? Probably a trend that's not final for one. The mid level features associated with that quasi-closed "bowling ball" wave could easily correct south a little more - though that's not going to go crazy either. Heights in the south/SE are for real and anchored hemispherically. This is a pancaking wave that's getting squeezed over the top of said ridge in the south ... and south of confluence and [possibly] polar high that's being too liberally eroded to the north. Kitchen sink sensible weather result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Since I have the day off and have been up since 0430 when my wife left for work, decided to do some research and try an analog series for Feb . My predictions ORH -5 BN 40 inches snow BDL -4 31 BOS -4 27 PVD - 5 26 CON -5 37 GYX -7 43 BVT -10 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 If I get 27” I’ll make out with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I get 27” I’ll make out with you. I'm good but thanks for the offer. If my system is right look out for March you will almost double to get around another 50 for both months to end the year. Snowstorms start and end the month of Feb with a mini thaw mid month. March will have a rocking 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a front end transition to a miller B for NNE as it is ... or is most likely to be. Down here, as we discussed yesterday late afternoon and still ...that looks like an icy mess on the Euro. As other's have noted, perhaps even more so in the EPS mean. One thing concerning in either that oper. or ensemble mean, the polar high isn't dislodging and moving off to the east...it's really being undercut by this thing...that never ever ever sits well with removing ageostrophic flow regimes. ... we go through this over and over and over again ...year after year after year ... situation after situation after situation when the cold has a source, the models drill the low merrily to BTV... But, the colder solutions relative all always always always will win in that situation. I mentioned yesterday that some of the off-beat model types weren't far from committing to more of a miller B and clearly, this continues now indoctrinating the oper. Euro to do so as well. in fact, we see the lowest modeled pressure over eastern/SNE 00z next Wednesday, while the mid level cold/mechanics are now also being squeezed more east rather than rotating freely up into Canada. Hard to say if that latter aspect/behavior is why the GFS sees much less llv forcing to the coast than the Euro, but it does... either way, the Euro's superior resolution and correction schemes may have something to do with its seeing/resolving the llv/resistance over New England in general. That's why in a nut shell, the coldest solutions always win in a situation when there is an actual cold source feeding the llv mass fields. ... I find it interesting that the NAVGEM even gives more miller B tendency a nod. So what are we talking about? Probably a trend that's not final for one. The mid level features associated with that quasi-closed "bowling ball" wave could easily correct south a little more - though that's not going to go crazy either. Heights in the south/SE are for real and anchored hemispherically. This is a pancaking wave that's getting squeezed over the top of said ridge in the south ... and south of confluence and [possibly] polar high that's being too liberally eroded to the north. Kitchen sink sensible weather result. Good analysis tip, I agree on all the points you hit on, The colder solutions have won out on almost every system this winter, That's a sprawling high to the north and one would only think it would continue to hold or build further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Tip def makes a good point about the high position...this isn't trying to "hang on" to the northeast of CAR and sliding east...this thing is sitting directly north of New England over southern Quebec. It's pretty strong too....like 1036 by the time is achieves that position. That's going to be very stubborn...esp in low levels. We'll have to see if guidance trends this colder if the high position does not change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I think the cold high may just mean some crap on the front end here. Doesnt look like a big deal for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tip def makes a good point about the high position...this isn't trying to "hang on" to the northeast of CAR and sliding east...this thing is sitting directly north of New England over southern Quebec. It's pretty strong too....like 1036 by the time is achieves that position. That's going to be very stubborn...esp in low levels. We'll have to see if guidance trends this colder if the high position does not change. Have to watch the icing threat over the interior..I remain skeptical this close to the water. This has 32.0000000000001 degree rain written all over it inside of I 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Navgem along with the Euro and GGEM all have that cold air draining south from the high over canada, As we have seen in past systems, Its been modeled under done further out as long as the high holds or builds, We should continue to see this strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 ah...yeah, caveat emptor: i should point out ...that wasn't a forecast per se. I was just covering some philosophies and spatial aspects that shouldn't be ignored (in my opinion) ...for/if one were to do so. Just saying, with that construct of feature synoptically evolving, the blithe early turn into southern Ontario looks suspect to me. And that does enter more feedbacks into coastal commitment ... draining ...blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 We need Leon to eat his Wheaties for SNE. And for the love or Ullr, can the techno-wizards do something about the ad banner? I get the need for ads, but these are awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have to watch the icing threat over the interior..I remain skeptical this close to the water. This has 32.0000000000001 degree rain written all over it inside of I 495. I'm generally skeptical about any ice threat. They sometimes pan out, but often it is, like you said, a very cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 That high is in a good position. That’s usually a sign to take ‘em down. But nit sure it presses down enough to really go cold in SNE, save maybe Dave’s area. It would be nice to see if we can get a meso low to develop and tuck the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm generally skeptical about any ice threat. They sometimes pan out, but often it is, like you said, a very cold rain You are in the icing capital of SNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That high is in a good position. That’s usually a sign to take ‘em down. But nit sure it presses down enough to really go cold in SNE, save maybe Dave’s area. It would be nice to see if we can get a meso low to develop and tuck the cold in. It would be nice if the antecedent airmass was better too. We try and filter this down from the N and NNE but it's only a glancing shot...would be nice to drill down a bit more deeper layer cold. NNE is able to do that enough perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Hunchie, Hippy and Moneypit meh are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice if the antecedent airmass was better too. We try and filter this down from the N and NNE but it's only a glancing shot...would be nice to drill down a bit more deeper layer cold. NNE is able to do that enough perhaps. Yeah we’re trying to replace downslope dandy air. At least it’s interesting for NH and ME. Maybe even VT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice Windsexy squall line in NH Maine at morning rush hour Kinda meh here, more a flurry than a squall - some moderate flakiness and a tenth or three, but essentially no wind. GFS is your ordinary cutter with rain to the border, given how bad the Euro has been I wish it had more support GFS remains stuck in a cooldown-cutter-cooldown-cutter-cooldown-cutter rut, right thru day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Agree...sell this for my area. Not gettting roped into waisting a wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hunchie, Hippy and Moneypit meh are in a good spot. MPM and I will need a pretty good drain down the CTRV in Vermont, definitely need the trend to continue for us to see frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: MPM and I will need a pretty good drain down the CTRV in Vermont, definitely need the trend to continue for us to see frozen. As do i. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: As do i. If we get two more runs trending colder and S I'll bite. Let's see if GFS budges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: If we get two more runs trending colder and S I'll bite. Let's see if GFS budges. Yeah...I want to see another real solid tick south before getting too invested for SNE...I mean, as is, we may see some light snow on the front end for pike region and northward, and then some sleet/ZR for a time, but it's mostly nuisance stuff before cold rain. Your area has a bit better shot to hold onto ZR longer...ubt overall, this would be a much more interesting event if we can get another solid bump south/colder. It's more interesting for dendrite-land and northward right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If we get two more runs trending colder and S I'll bite. Let's see if GFS budges. I'm not expecting much from the GFS, Maybe a tic or so until we get closer, Its been late to the party all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm not expecting much from the GFS, Maybe a tic or so until we get closer, Its been late to the party all season. GFS still pretty uneventful...mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are in the icing capital of SNE lol. I hear these things and wonder... the last...I don't know... half dozen or so ice threats have either never materialized or have been minor (the mid- December one was ok) Even before the 2008 storm it seemed we had several in the mid 2000's that were better than the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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