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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a nice improvement on week 3 and 4. Ipemndhaded after 2/5?

Yeah...things could turn pretty solid by early February. High risk/High reward pattern week 3 and then the Siberian express week 4....though the usual caveats apply...esp for week 4.

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that looks to me like that could be an icy mess on Monday... 

in fact, some of these off-beat model types aren't all that far from tipping more toward miller-B characteristics. 

initially the polar high ...first of all, that feature is relatively new and is trending?  We aren't sure if that isn't going to get stronger with attending/governing confluence more pronounced.  Hell, handling mid level mechanics over southern/SE Canada is always handled perfectly ...right?  Secondly, it's a good position to establish an ageostrophic mass for draining, such that even if it moves off, there is a layer underneath near the ground still moving south in that evolution...  I'm looking at the EPS mean there with an actual curvi-linear pressure pattern indicative of CAD and come on... that low can model west all the GFS wants.  Move or attenuated the high in the guidance of forget it.

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Anything to numb the pain, lol.  Trying to put lipstick on a pig.  A bit of CAD  and icy mix at the beginning of a storm before changing to rain is somewhat exciting to track in the early/pre season, but not so much  in the middle of show time  in the dead of winter after getting 2-3 +feet of snow in much of the region.  Enjoy the mud in the day and icy steps, driveways at night and buy extra rock salt.  Perhaps pile up some snow in a shady area and pray that it lasts.  

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Anything to numb the pain, lol.  Trying to put lipstick on a pig.  A bit of CAD  and icy mix at the beginning of a storm before changing to rain is somewhat exciting to track in the early/pre season, but not so much  in the middle of show time  in the dead of winter after getting 2-3 +feet of snow in much of the region.  Enjoy the mud in the day and icy steps, driveways at night and buy extra rock salt.  Perhaps pile up some snow in a shady area and pray that it lasts.  
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0z EPS again looks even colder than the op. Our arctic high in Quebec/Ontario completely grinds up that cutter. Awesome. Even SNH peaks out for a brief time Tuesday in the 30’s...

GFS/GEFS is now significantly warmer than the Euro/EPS although it too has been trending colder over time. GEPS looks much closer to the euro/EPS.

Def riding the EPS right now, but would like to see the GEFS/GFS trend significantly colder today to increase confidence.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

0z EPS again looks even colder than the op. Our arctic high in Quebec/Ontario completely grinds up that cutter. Awesome. Even SNH peaks out for a brief time Tuesday in the 30’s...

GFS/GEFS is now significantly warmer than the Euro/EPS although it too has been trending colder over time. GEPS looks much closer to the euro/EPS.

Def riding the EPS right now, but would like to see the GEFS/GFS trend significantly colder today to increase confidence.

GFS is your ordinary cutter with rain to the border, given how bad the Euro has been I wish it had more support

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

 

0z EPS again looks even colder than the op. Our arctic high in Quebec/Ontario completely grinds up that cutter. Awesome. Even SNH peaks out for a brief time Tuesday in the 30’s...

GFS/GEFS is now significantly warmer than the Euro/EPS although it too has been trending colder over time. GEPS looks much closer to the euro/EPS.

Def riding the EPS right now, but would like to see the GEFS/GFS trend significantly colder today to increase confidence.

Kind of how i envisioned this one, Comes in weaker and gets squeezed out underneath up here, Will have to watch it going forward to see if it continues, But that 3 runs now where this has been moving further south and iy has some support.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice 0z run on the Euro last night, Similar to the 0z GGEM, The GGEM has had this for a few runs now, But it looks like the GFS is going the other way, Will have to see if the GFS trends colder over the next few cycles as it looks like its to warm.

The EPS was very cold in the mean.  Almost Miller B style instead of a cutter.

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