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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one that eviscerated 20" of snow and flooded  Vemont with ice jams.

And also in Northwest CT....Kent, CT has flooding all in town due to Ice Jams on the Housatonic River.  Same in Portland, CT and many other towns in CT.  The pictures of the ice jams on these area rivers here is amazing to say the least.  

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You know ... it's like we try to engineer the "thaw" away..

Look, deal with it.  It was warm enough to abolish a hefty snow pack ... It will be warm enough to do it again, if there was one to do so... which tomorrow will likely prove that come bare ground Sunday morning. 

It's not really controvertible...  it's thaw-ing... perhaps at varying rates, but it is doing so. 

If the pattern flips back to something more agreeable, ... in a week, it does nothing to mitigate the significance that it thawed since the persistent cold expression of winter that last three weeks. The present regression in temps was both over forecast back whence, but really is only a speed bump amid a warm pattern. For winter enthusiasts, we're getting lucky here... we are not avoiding the thaw.  Let's have this discussion on Sunday, when the BD is belayed until Monday and we're working on the third day over 50 and nights barely below freezing at the climate cold core of the year.

We thaw, get over it...  we return to winter, and enjoy.

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... it's like we try to engineer the "thaw" away..

Look, deal with it.  It was warm enough to abolish a hefty snow pack ... It will be warm enough to do it again, if there was one to do so... which tomorrow will likely prove that come bare ground Sunday morning. 

It's not really controvertible...  it's thaw-ing... perhaps at varying rates, but it is doing so. 

If the pattern flips back to something more agreeable, ... in a week, it does nothing to mitigate the significance that it thawed since the persistent cold expression of winter that last three weeks. The present regression in temps was both over forecast back whence, but really is only a speed bump amid a warm pattern. For winter enthusiasts, we're getting lucky here... we are not avoiding the thaw.  Let's have this discussion on Sunday, when the BD is belayed until Monday and we're working on the third day over 50 and nights barely below freezing at the climate cold core of the year.

We thaw, get over it...  we return to winter, and enjoy.

The big difference will be the dews/wetbulbs. Where the pack opens up it'll start to erode quickly with some sun assistance at those temps. But I still have 4" of glacier up here with probably another 4-5" coming on top of that. 40F wetbulbs will eat up the new snow pretty quickly over the weekend, but it's going to struggle to eat through the old pack like the 57F wetbulbs with rain were able to. I agree that I like the MOS over on Sat...+7ish 850s with SW flow would be near those MOS numbers even if the column was isothermal.

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13 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

What the hell are you talking about?  Why is your specific location conducive to people pouring in like locusts, and then to ruining your yard in search of extreme weather goodness?  Even more importantly why are they so aggressive, and how and why did they rip out part of your water well?  What prevented them from taking out the whole thing?  

Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well.

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4 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said:

Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well.

Please do, down here our wells get water from under the ground

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9 hours ago, Weatherexpert said:

Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well.

So...."everyone has torn up..." does not refer to people, but inanimate objects thrown around in the wind?

Was there any marijuana flying around as well that you happened to pull out of the air and pack into a bowl and smoked?

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

How's the torch looking? Cheerleaders in bikini's for the pats game? 

still in the works.. 

some interesting aspects (though tedious perhaps for some users) is that the behavior of the warm arrival has changed as we've edged the days closer.  The MOS actually matches the synoptics reasonably well, and shows more of an abrupt entry into significant warm departures on Saturday.  This may have appeared more gradual in previous modeling... 

Friday may still hang up in the 30s across the region .. .not speaking to the mountains. The high pressure return flow kicks in just about right on Friday evening in time to perhaps keep the temperatures from falling too much that night, then Saturday morning ... most guidance/blend depicts warm front/or difused warm boundary has blasted E most (but south of NNE ... not quite sure how those northern areas fair through the period.). If we do manage to decouple Friday night in the usual candidate cold spots, after mix out Saturday mid or late morning, wow at those diurnal changes.   

Right now, D4 ... D6 are all +10 to +12 F over climo at KBED, but given to a-priori as well as knowledge about the climate dimming of extended machine-based guidance, it is likely that D4 ends up warmer than +12 over given to synoptics ... The pattern and particulars would actually support temp pumping to almost 60 F or even a little more.  Even at this time of year...tepid sun working together with gradient imparting a well mixed tallish boundary layer, probably gets the thickness in the low levels within the 90th percentile of their diurnal expansion potential.  That's all code of really having the ceiling be open to how mild it will get...and it will be warmer than merely 47 F that the GFSX tossed out at 00z. 

Sunday has a caveat emptor due to BD.  The 00z Euro did back off a little by, ... unusual as it may seem for late January, actually stalling a boudnary in southern NH and allowing Sunday to sneak into another warm one ... again, probably a few ticks warmer than 45 F if said boundary stays N.  Monday depends which model one uses. The Euro then finally pushes the boundary south, though less deeply than priors... While the GGEM doesn't really at all.   GFS is in the middle...  I guess climate argument alone nods in favor of the Euro, but it is trending so who knows. 

Either way, my guess is that it's not protracted beyond early next week.  

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18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When it has 60 dews?

Sure.

Pattern has def. relaxed....but its fair to say January may end up colder than I had thought.

We'll see.

I heard from some friends in Western Maine that said they've never seen snow disappear so fast as in that thaw.  They were going backcountry skiing in Baxter State Park and said they lost about 2 feet in 48 hours.  

That thaw didn't have the usual CAD and seemed worst to the east as we at least went below freezing to a mixed bag about 18 hours prior to similar latitude in eastern New England.

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