Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Tellies are favorable for that There will be cold shots during this thaw What thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Don't sleep on the 22nd kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Don't sleep on the 22nd kids I try to get 8 hours every night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What thaw? Heat island affect ftl, its torchy there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't sleep on the 22nd kids ? I don't see anything on the 22nd, 23rd-24th, Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I try to get 8 hours every night. Studies show 7 or 9 is ideal.Something about the stages of sleep coincide with odd hours. I read it on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, dryslot said: ? I don't see anything on the 22nd, 23rd-24th, Yeah. that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 56 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I try to get 8 hours every night. Literally, you are an idiot savant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: ? I don't see anything on the 22nd, 23rd-24th, Yeah. Period after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What thaw? The one that eviscerated 20" of snow and flooded Vemont with ice jams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The one that eviscerated 20" of snow and flooded Vemont with ice jams. 36 hours is a thaw? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 36 hours is a thaw? Lol When it has 60 dews? Sure. Pattern has def. relaxed....but its fair to say January may end up colder than I had thought. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The one that eviscerated 20" of snow and flooded Vemont with ice jams. And also in Northwest CT....Kent, CT has flooding all in town due to Ice Jams on the Housatonic River. Same in Portland, CT and many other towns in CT. The pictures of the ice jams on these area rivers here is amazing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Our seasonal guy seems to like Feb into Mar. MJO ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, wx2fish said: With that look Id take the over on Sat and the under on Monday Zactly! Wouldn't be surprised if ice entered the picture that day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z GEFS have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th. Not a big thaw at all Gfs also shows a miller b at 204 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 You know ... it's like we try to engineer the "thaw" away.. Look, deal with it. It was warm enough to abolish a hefty snow pack ... It will be warm enough to do it again, if there was one to do so... which tomorrow will likely prove that come bare ground Sunday morning. It's not really controvertible... it's thaw-ing... perhaps at varying rates, but it is doing so. If the pattern flips back to something more agreeable, ... in a week, it does nothing to mitigate the significance that it thawed since the persistent cold expression of winter that last three weeks. The present regression in temps was both over forecast back whence, but really is only a speed bump amid a warm pattern. For winter enthusiasts, we're getting lucky here... we are not avoiding the thaw. Let's have this discussion on Sunday, when the BD is belayed until Monday and we're working on the third day over 50 and nights barely below freezing at the climate cold core of the year. We thaw, get over it... we return to winter, and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know ... it's like we try to engineer the "thaw" away.. Look, deal with it. It was warm enough to abolish a hefty snow pack ... It will be warm enough to do it again, if there was one to do so... which tomorrow will likely prove that come bare ground Sunday morning. It's not really controvertible... it's thaw-ing... perhaps at varying rates, but it is doing so. If the pattern flips back to something more agreeable, ... in a week, it does nothing to mitigate the significance that it thawed since the persistent cold expression of winter that last three weeks. The present regression in temps was both over forecast back whence, but really is only a speed bump amid a warm pattern. For winter enthusiasts, we're getting lucky here... we are not avoiding the thaw. Let's have this discussion on Sunday, when the BD is belayed until Monday and we're working on the third day over 50 and nights barely below freezing at the climate cold core of the year. We thaw, get over it... we return to winter, and enjoy. The big difference will be the dews/wetbulbs. Where the pack opens up it'll start to erode quickly with some sun assistance at those temps. But I still have 4" of glacier up here with probably another 4-5" coming on top of that. 40F wetbulbs will eat up the new snow pretty quickly over the weekend, but it's going to struggle to eat through the old pack like the 57F wetbulbs with rain were able to. I agree that I like the MOS over on Sat...+7ish 850s with SW flow would be near those MOS numbers even if the column was isothermal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Our seasonal guy seems to like Feb into Mar. MJO ftw. I hope...I'm big on the second half of Feb and especially into March. Watch March 1-14 for a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 13 hours ago, Cold Miser said: What the hell are you talking about? Why is your specific location conducive to people pouring in like locusts, and then to ruining your yard in search of extreme weather goodness? Even more importantly why are they so aggressive, and how and why did they rip out part of your water well? What prevented them from taking out the whole thing? Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said: Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well. Please do, down here our wells get water from under the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Try Bean-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Gas-x ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Can we just lock in the long range blizzard on the 6z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 How's the torch looking? Cheerleaders in bikini's for the pats game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 9 hours ago, Weatherexpert said: Thank you everyone for inquiring about the weather disasters that have been occurring at my home in VT. I wish I had a good explanation as to why and how this is happening. All I can say is I wake up in the morning to the wind as well as particles all throughout the air whipping through my yard, tearing everything up, including my water well in the front yard. Cold Miser - locusts are a good way to describe it. That is what it looks like when I see it outside. Big brown gusts of wind I see on its way to tear up my yard. Funny enough it has stayed away from my neighbors yard and comes exclusively for mine every morning. If anyone would like, I can post a picture of the damage done to my front yard and water well. So...."everyone has torn up..." does not refer to people, but inanimate objects thrown around in the wind? Was there any marijuana flying around as well that you happened to pull out of the air and pack into a bowl and smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: How's the torch looking? Cheerleaders in bikini's for the pats game? Yes, I would like to know what the next few weeks are looking like as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: How's the torch looking? Cheerleaders in bikini's for the pats game? still in the works.. some interesting aspects (though tedious perhaps for some users) is that the behavior of the warm arrival has changed as we've edged the days closer. The MOS actually matches the synoptics reasonably well, and shows more of an abrupt entry into significant warm departures on Saturday. This may have appeared more gradual in previous modeling... Friday may still hang up in the 30s across the region .. .not speaking to the mountains. The high pressure return flow kicks in just about right on Friday evening in time to perhaps keep the temperatures from falling too much that night, then Saturday morning ... most guidance/blend depicts warm front/or difused warm boundary has blasted E most (but south of NNE ... not quite sure how those northern areas fair through the period.). If we do manage to decouple Friday night in the usual candidate cold spots, after mix out Saturday mid or late morning, wow at those diurnal changes. Right now, D4 ... D6 are all +10 to +12 F over climo at KBED, but given to a-priori as well as knowledge about the climate dimming of extended machine-based guidance, it is likely that D4 ends up warmer than +12 over given to synoptics ... The pattern and particulars would actually support temp pumping to almost 60 F or even a little more. Even at this time of year...tepid sun working together with gradient imparting a well mixed tallish boundary layer, probably gets the thickness in the low levels within the 90th percentile of their diurnal expansion potential. That's all code of really having the ceiling be open to how mild it will get...and it will be warmer than merely 47 F that the GFSX tossed out at 00z. Sunday has a caveat emptor due to BD. The 00z Euro did back off a little by, ... unusual as it may seem for late January, actually stalling a boudnary in southern NH and allowing Sunday to sneak into another warm one ... again, probably a few ticks warmer than 45 F if said boundary stays N. Monday depends which model one uses. The Euro then finally pushes the boundary south, though less deeply than priors... While the GGEM doesn't really at all. GFS is in the middle... I guess climate argument alone nods in favor of the Euro, but it is trending so who knows. Either way, my guess is that it's not protracted beyond early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I hope the torch works out...rather that than this crap today. I'll take the uncastrated version of old man winter later in the season....but if he's on life support, then pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When it has 60 dews? Sure. Pattern has def. relaxed....but its fair to say January may end up colder than I had thought. We'll see. I heard from some friends in Western Maine that said they've never seen snow disappear so fast as in that thaw. They were going backcountry skiing in Baxter State Park and said they lost about 2 feet in 48 hours. That thaw didn't have the usual CAD and seemed worst to the east as we at least went below freezing to a mixed bag about 18 hours prior to similar latitude in eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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