40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The ensemble signal was decent, but there is a kicker behind it as the PAC jet fires up again. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm selling on the big storm idea....still could be some snow, but the emergence of the PAC jet mid season is too much to overcome imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 You know ... we used have this old adage up there in my UML days. First it gets warm, then it gets cold ... BOOM. I think if memory serves there was even some real statistical significance to it too. I think back to a handful of events in my time, and certainly that was true. In Dec 5-7 2003, we had a southerly gale and 70 F DPs just before a ribbon echo squall put the k-bosh on it... two days later, windex squalls swept over the region associated with a polar/arctic fropa, then two days later... we had 16" of snow where I lived at the time in Winchester Mass. I remember that storm as being a lot of hand wringing as to where the cut off for mix/rain would be over SE zones. After all, at that time of year? But given to idiosyncrasy with the positioning of the nascent high over central Ontario ... not being eastern Ontario, gave the ageostrophic wind a bit of a bicep ... and as such, the CF compressed way unusually far S to Plymouth...only to collapse SE through the storm. It was amazing seeing Logan go from 34 F parachutes to 19 F powder over the course of the afternoon, as the winds backed from NE to NNE then N. It's not true at all times... and certainly wouldn't work in every transition. In 2012... we kept transitioning from obnoxiously warm and dry, to cool and dry, only too blithely go back to obnoxiously warm and dry. But, given a fair and just sort of like transitory pattern, often these warm ups get displaced perhaps "prematurely" on a hemispheric scope, and the mass-field wiggle back jolts a storm production. Something like that. We found in the data there was a tendency for 'some' kind of positive departure in the week prior to significant events. It would be fitting to actually have a system next week in some ways. I could almost see the old man in the rocking chair spinning tales of yore, ... saying something like, " ...A big one she's a comin'.... first she got warm, then she got cold. Boom," ...after having spend the previous hour listening in patients to all the reasons why nothing is going to happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm selling on the big storm idea....still could be some snow, but the emergence of the PAC jet mid season is too much to overcome imo. I agree. Maybe some have fun in SE MA with OES though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The Blizzard was Dec 5th 2003 20 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: The Blizzard was Dec 5th 2003 20 inches here I got 12"...with 26" 5mi east of me, and 36" 10mi east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I got 12"...with 26" 5mi east of me, and 36" 10mi east lol Woburn FTW that one. 24” IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I got 12"...with 26" 5mi east of me, and 36" 10mi east lol Actually was a 3 day event with a pre then dumpage 5th night and 6th. I have some great memories of that night with the kids riding tobaggans down our street hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The rest of that month was 50s every day lol let's hope that doesn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Retorch coming with Pac jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Retorch coming with Pac jet. We nape after this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: We nape after this threat. That's fine. I could use some above normal. As long as we don't "nape" in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: That's fine. I could use some above normal. As long as we don't "nape" in February. I just jogged in shorts and a tee. Felt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip. Yea the 14th I picked up 6 and thought a great Dec was underway then flipped to rain and it was over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Here ya go Kevin, Albany Area snow hole,think we had 4”of plowable snow on Xmas ,that’s about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 so that's it? we throw the towel in on the next possible event? maybe models will come back with more promising ,next 48? son of a **tch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Retorch coming with Pac jet. You just deflated all the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You just deflated all the weenies Yep. But looks like some action in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, 512high said: so that's it? we throw the towel in on the next possible event? maybe models will come back with more promising ,next 48? son of a **tch Too early to throw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Here ya go Kevin, Albany Area snow hole,think we had 4”of plowable snow on Xmas ,that’s about it!Alb is at 17.2”. Normal is 23.7”. 6.5” deficit. Not great, but not as bad as you say. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Woburn FTW that one. 24” IIRC Yup...my dad lived in the center....26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Retorch coming with Pac jet. Remind Kev to check my outlook to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Albany is 1hr east of me and they have done better for sure,there is no way we have reached 8” for the season 1 hr. West of Albany ,AKA,, Albany Area snow hole!...Albany north(Adirondacks ) has done ok like you say,snowgeek ...maybe you could send some my way seeing you are right next door to Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip. Got 24" in the first event, followed by a 40s deluge, then 13" on 12/15, followed by TWO torch-deluges. After 37" in the two snowstorms, only 35.7" the rest of the winter. Hope we do better in the final 3/4 of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Speaking of the 44 Hour 21" storm here of December 5-7, 2003, The NWS used to have All the data back to 1997-1998 for Snowstorms. Now it's only 2008. Where are the previous pages data? https://www.weather.gov/box/pastevents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, 512high said: so that's it? we throw the towel in on the next possible event? maybe models will come back with more promising ,next 48? son of a **tch It’s an advisory event at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Retorch looks pretty brief. Just that 2 day period maybe later next weekend. Don't sleep on middle next week yet either. May not end up as a KU but sometimes even the front burst can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yeah this whole warmup looks really really meh. We keep seeing it get shorter and muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Difficult to complain about that H5 look on the 0z EPS/12z GEFS around day 4/5. Good position for Eastern NE at this range. 12z GEFS also took a step towards 0z EPS. Improved look, in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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