RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yea, euro always PE’s on Miller Bs. DT woof woof goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, euro always PE’s on Miller Bs. DT woof woof goes poof. The ensemble signal was decent, but there is a kicker behind it as the PAC jet fires up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The ensemble signal was decent, but there is a kicker behind it as the PAC jet fires up again. I don’t like the progressive trend, but it was obvious the euro op last few runs wanted to American Pie on the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t like the progressive trend, but it was obvious the euro op last few runs wanted to American Pie on the interior. A lot of time left and both models give snow. I'm just not sold in a big one at this time. That could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The ensemble signal was decent, but there is a kicker behind it as the PAC jet fires up again. Yeah that was the most clear fly in the ointment in my view. The ridging is in a hurry to break down just when we need it stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’m near Albany and these models can’t get it right this year,not even close here,I feel bad for the Mets around here always calling for an ice storm or a blizzard or 3-5...Ha ,I think that’s my season total 3-5 ,nam is the only one close...the nam ,can you believe it..lol..cliff jumpers galore! Up north(Adirondacks ) and out west ( Buff ) cashing in as is New England ,but here near Albany we win for biggest Snow hole in the northeast so far this season I would think ,must be the mountains holding it all back...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bigfoot said: I’m near Albany and these models can’t get it right this year,not even close here,I feel bad for the Mets around here always calling for an ice storm or a blizzard or 3-5...Ha ,I think that’s my season total 3-5 ,nam is the only one close...the nam ,can you believe it..lol..cliff jumpers galore! Up north(Adirondacks ) and out west ( Buff ) cashing in as is New England ,but here near Albany we win for biggest Snow hole in the northeast so far this season I would think ,must be the mountains holding it all back...lol Why did you post this again 3 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure how it still stinks for E NE with the more progressive evolution....odd. Cut totals in half out west, too. But but , I had locked the Euro in. It gave me 40" and I locked it! Someone is stealing my snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The last storm started looking ugly in the D4-5 time range before strongly coming back inside 84 hours...when the nonhydros led the way. This one definitely has that flavor of complex wave interaction where that lead vortmax screws with the model guidance along with the kicker wave behind it from the arctic. When I said this on Thursday about the day 4-5 time range I was criticized for not adding much contribution lol...guess you gotta be a MET to say certain things. I agree with your post completely. Again models have lots to to sort out....excitement runs rampant in here with one model run. And goes the exact opposite way when the next run doesn’t show big snow. And this behavior comes from some of the more knowledgeable ones in here too....always so quick to write things off...even at 100 hours out??? I too feel there’s lots of time to go..too much to be getting hopes up for a big snow, or losing hope of the same. Let’s let this thing play out over the weekend before we high five each other, or write it off as minor at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Wow ...that's strange. But then again, considering the source, heh. WPC failed to release a Model Diagnostic analysis overnight entirely? That seems a bit off ... to suppress anger entirely. Perhaps they probably don't recognized any present urgency, and believe with conviction ... if not arrogantly, that there really is no potential for this next week. Friday night is was/is a good time to sluff off? Granted, (haha) they are never going to maintain the same sort of urgency as the local consensus (so to speak...), but in more practical terms ... any sort of coastal system from PHL-PWM would still be affecting a very large, dense population region. Thus, the kind of discontinuity we witnessed on the 00z runs ... yeeeah really should have warranted some sort of a FAST analysis of the model initializations/trends subtending. Not doing so is approaching inexcusably shirking on their responsibilities. 'Curious what their excuse is for not doing their jobs overnight. Perhaps they have budget issues? Obviously the Government is right that the fluidity of the very atmosphere its self, ....stops for human convention. Through the vicissitudes of societal evolution... crowd fractals have parsed out Saturdays and Sundays along the space-time continuum ... I've noticed the atmosphere also respects that arbitration.... We'll just pick things up again on Monday when the weather checks back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The kicker could be our friend or foe. Friend if it prevents this from amplifying into PSM. Foe if it kicks this this along too quickly. TBH, I’ve never really been a fan of kickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow ...that's strange. But then again, considering the source, heh. WPC failed to release a Model Diagnostic analysis overnight entirely? That seems a bit off ... to suppress anger entirely. Perhaps they probably don't recognized any present urgency, and believe with conviction ... if not arrogantly, that there really is no potential for this next week. Friday night is was/is a good time to sluff off? Granted, (haha) they are never going to maintain the same sort of urgency as the local consensus (so to speak...), but in more practical terms ... any sort of coastal system from PHL-PWM would still be affecting a very large, dense population region. Thus, the kind of discontinuity we witnessed on the 00z runs ... yeeeah really should have warranted some sort of a FAST analysis of the model initializations/trends subtending. Not doing so is approaching inexcusably shirking on their responsibilities. 'Curious what their excuse is for not doing their jobs overnight. Perhaps they have budget issues? Obviously the Government is right that the fluidity of the very atmosphere its self, ....stops for human convention. Through the vicissitudes of societal ... crowd fractals have parsed out Saturdays and Sundays along the space-time continuum ... I've noticed the atmosphere also respects that arbitration.... We'll just pick things up again on Monday when the weather checks back in The weather is on hold until the games are over this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Nice OES signal for the Outer Cape on Sunday than further west over SE MA on Monday into Tues. Could drop a few inches for some. All of this is ahead of the weak wave the pushes through on Wednesday which may drop another 1-3" for some. Start with these light events before thinking about Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice OES signal for the Outer Cape on Sunday than further west over SE MA on Monday into Tues. Could drop a few inches for some. All of this is ahead of the weak wave the pushes through on Wednesday which may drop another 1-3" for some. Start with these light events before thinking about Thursday. JFTPW? (James for the possible win) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The kicker could be our friend or foe. Friend if it prevents this from amplifying into PSM. Foe if it kicks this this along too quickly. TBH, I’ve never really been a fan of kickers. The kicker saved our bacon in the jan 4th storm. It prob would have curled into SNE if it weren't for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: JFTPW? (James for the possible win) Ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ain't happening poor guy...throw him a bone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Hopefully Will can talk about the pre event for interior SNE Tuesday into Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The kicker could be our friend or foe. Friend if it prevents this from amplifying into PSM. Foe if it kicks this this along too quickly. TBH, I’ve never really been a fan of kickers. #bankickers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully Will can talk about the pre event for interior SNE Tuesday into Wed Not much to talk about right now. It's there but it's the type of thing you can't really expand on until we are closer. We can just say that models still have it. As Scooter said, on some models it's the only game in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully Will can talk about the pre event for interior SNE Tuesday into Wed start a thread, it’s well deserving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The kicker saved our bacon in the jan 4th storm. It prob would have curled into SNE if it weren't for it. Yeah, just toggling the Euro and GFS, they both have the main features over the Conus but vary in timing/amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: start a thread, it’s well deserving. Thread for what? Pre-event? The Thursday idea? I mean there’s a bunch of differing signals on different models...if anything..this seems a lil less certain what will happen than 48 hours ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thread for what? Pre-event? The Thursday idea? I mean there’s a bunch of differing signals on different models...if anything..this seems a lil less certain what will happen than 48 hours ago?? whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Def an OES signal for sure for south shore. It's on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: start a thread, it’s well deserving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: whoosh Lol ..ok I see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much to talk about right now. It's there but it's the type of thing you can't really expand on until we are closer. We can just say that models still have it. As Scooter said, on some models it's the only game in town. It just may be the only game, Most models have lost the signal for something more substantial right now but there is a lot of time left on this to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Hm... not sure if this has any merit but, I don't actually like it that the NAM can't pick up on any amplitude on this thing in it's 60+hr frames? The reason I don't like it is because the component wave mechanics that would do the trick here are now squarely inside the NAM's domain over N/A. A lot of what people don't realize with that model, is that it's grid isn't Global. It's bounded by N/A and the adjacent/immediate oceanic regions on either side, outside of which ... to that models processing ...doesn't exist. A lot of why/when the model shows discontinuity, it can probably be attributed to events entering and leaving the "edges" of the grid, and then transitively ...their disappearance versus arrivals cause alterations as they 'wiggle' (for lack of better word..) influences through it's domain. Anyway, this thing is/was always a pure N 'over-the-pole' delivery in the deep layer troposphere. We've been waiting on that... which finally entered far N Canada overnight ... set to careen south over the next two days. Data initialization and the cornucopia of reasons therein certainly applied, given to that trajectory of arrival. I don't know if that should still be the same now that it's arrived ...and the NAM if anything is getting weaker? Course, there probably still is a goodly bit of assimilation going on with that initializaitons up that way... I can imagine there is a network of densely populated radio sonde guys chomping at the bit to launch in the near eternal darkness of the balmy -20 F planetary night, ..but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.