RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: March 14th, 2017th analog? Yea, the mid levels are modeled to track over CNE like march 17. We need the trough to start digging more over the wknd for an uber weenie solution. PF, Dendrite, and Dryslot in the strikezone at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 I have a feelin' this Euro op. run due out here in the next few is going to go nuts with this thing... Probably shouldn't saying that because it won't now, but I do see that the pattern as modeled in the blend/et al seems to fit right into the Euro's bias. The meridional flow is already in place this time, and the SPV fragment/subsume may be voided in lieu of just taking intermediate stream dynamics and drilling it through Cinci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty close to pinching off that ULL. Ridge bridge. If that occurs we could get a pretty sizable event. You’d have to think, with that look in Canada, the trough gets carved out deeper into the tenn valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’d have to think, with that look in Canada, the trough gets carved out deeper into the tenn valley. That's my biggest issue right now. The trough is just not carved out deep enough. It's a very broad one and the surface reflection is dorta meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That thing next week could be powder keg ... That U/A of the N-stream is moving in about two days post the circulation total mass field having packed the hell out of the thickness...then, collocated that right smack over the Gulf Stream when using ...just about any model. I suspect the only reason we haven't seen a more robust/coherently stronger depiction already is the g-models being cutesy with details. I would argue that the non-hydrostatic model types will do well if that 'general' table-set is still offering up as we end the weekend there. I tell you, if you just cut out the domain of S-SE Canada and the U.S. OV/MA/NE regions that "ICON" model from Germany is fairly reasonable 1978 analog. Don't know about the total domain...just that region tho. Don't know much about that model, either... but that idea of the western end of SPV fragment turning cyclonically S all at once there is pretty much exactly what happened around F3/4 back whence. We nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Here is the 12z GEFS SLP clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's my biggest issue right now. The trough is just not carved out deep enough. It's a very broad one and the surface reflection is dorta meh. Lets see if weenieology will beat gfs-ology. I suspect it’s not properly handling the trough when you bridge the pna and war like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Top CIPS analog for next week seems to be this: 1 / 15 / 1983 January Snowstorm of 1983 (January 15-16, 1983) Although well-predicted, this classic nor'easter raised havoc across eastern New York and New England. Albany reported 24.5 inches with amounts of almost 30 inches reported in Saratoga County, but less than a foot in the lower Hudson Valley. Up to 20” of snow in the Berkshires with 12-18 inches in southern Vermont and Northwest Connecticut. For Albany, this storm is the greatest January snowfall on record and one of the greatest stormsnows. The heavy snow brought travel to a standstill across many locations, and may injuries were reported due to auto accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Lol... #2 is 1/22/2005 Not bad! Some SE Mass spots with 36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol... #2 is 1/22/2005 Not bad! Some SE Mass spots with 36" That was Harwich, MA USA greatest blizzard in Cape Cod MA USA history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol... #2 is 1/22/2005 Not bad! Some SE Mass spots with 36" That storm had some form of gravity wave, or moisture deformation issues, ... some kind of thing going on that disrupted a ubiquitous result, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. For that alone, it's total score took a hit. I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" or so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This needs to get going sooner than what the gfs and Canadian are showing or this will be a nothing burger south of Boston. Nothing insane as far as changes, but that def needs to happen for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That storm had some form of gravity or moisture deformation issues of some kind going on, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" of so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. Ouch My hood still got close to 2 feet (Gardner, MA had 22") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That storm had some form of gravity or moisture deformation issues of some kind going on, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" of so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. It had a great waa push into HFD, recall being at my girls and picking up 14” or so then the ccb kept shifting SE. The 30-36” forecast crapped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It had a great waa push into HFD, recall being at my girls and picking up 14” or so then the ccb kept shifting SE. The 30-36” forecast crapped out. Yeah, ...it was a huge storm... Undoubtedly, a knee jerk member of the hoi polloi is now incensed and pounding out a resentfully intoned diatribe to refute my statement, clearly having not read the statement regarding not taking away anything from those who were impacted, but...they are over reacting and well...wrong. The storm did have an arcing screw zone, AND, the biggest ones of lore and fact, didn't/don't do that... So, it doesn't get a VIP pass into that circle of elites ... despite being a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, ...it was a huge storm... Undoubtedly, a knee jerk member of the hoi polloi is now incensed and pounding out a resentfully intoned diatribe to refute my statement, clearly having not read the statement regarding not taking away anything from those who were impacted, but...they are over reacting and well...wrong. The storm did have an arcing screw zone, AND, the biggest ones of lore and fact, didn't/don't do that... So, it doesn't get a VIP pass into that circle of elites ... despite being a huge storm. Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way. I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way. I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs. One thing to never take literally is the "snow" output. It's great for ULL comparisons to show the potential. At least that how I use them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: One thing to never take literally is the "snow" output. It's great for ULL comparisons to show the potential. At least that how I use them. Good point. I think that is really what they are supposed to be used for. And the same ULL could give you a million different possibilities. At this time out, they are just a curiosity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Eura looking very healthy early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The CIPs analogs are also only as good as the model output...if a model like the Euro is showing a totally different upper air evolution, then the CIPs analogs wouldn't be as valuable because it's going off the GFS (when we get close enough it goes off the NAM). But I'd say in this setup where the ULL configuration so far is fairly well agreed upon, the CIPS analogs are a nice tool to show the potential. The Jan '83 storm had some taint issues on the coast...was a very good storm for the interior and even suburbs of Boston...but yeah, the jackpot was like ALB with the banding...prob a lot of jackpot fetish meltdowns in here if that happened again....but I wouldn't sneeze at 10-16" over the interior regardless...we still have work to do to get this storm up to that level....but the upper air is definitely favorable for a larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 For the life of me, I don't remember that storm in Jan 83 for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way. I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs. no heh i was just being tongue in cheek ... but sometimes there is a bit of an auto-pilot type of vitriol that happens from some users in here, ..if one dares even hint an insinuation that challenges the sanctity of their coveted events. ahaha. it's like dealing with Patriots football fans whenever the topic of Tom Brady comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: For the life of me, I don't remember that storm in Jan 83 for up here. me neither, but I lived in Florida then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: For the life of me, I don't remember that storm in Jan 83 for up here. Only 7-8" up here. Forgettable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Only 7-8" up here. Forgettable. Now i know why.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I recall that one. Age 11. In Vernon.. we had 17” I think. Only good storm of that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro gonna be fun. Starts snowing Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro is rather lackluster. A nice nipple low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro is rather lackluster. A nice nipple low. Wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Eh-you’re right-not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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