Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The GEFS signal is basically dog poop. There isn't much there to key on for sensitivity. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is interesting how the nipple low on he gfs is basically not something to reckon with now. Some of th ensembles even yesterday honed in on Wed-thurs. Careful. Next week “nipple low”will be the new media darling...throwing bomb cyclone to the curb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does that mean? It means that there is no coherent signal in the ensemble variance. Typically you would like to see a monopole (i.e. stronger or weaker low center) or dipole (i.e. faster/slower or east/west). The GEFS have no such signal, just broad areas of higher or lower pressures, never mind that there isn't any real mean low center to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 So in simple terms, We just toss it........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: So in simple terms, We just toss it........lol We don't have to toss it, it just doesn't really inform us of anything. Based on the EPS we can say "if this, then that" but the GEFS doesn't provide enough info to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It means that there is no coherent signal in the ensemble variance. Typically you would like to see a monopole (i.e. stronger or weaker low center) or dipole (i.e. faster/slower or east/west). The GEFS have no such signal, just broad areas of higher or lower pressures, never mind that there isn't any real mean low center to speak of. But, before the Blizzard...didn't the models act the "same" way until like 48 hrs away, or am i off big time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It means that there is no coherent signal in the ensemble variance. Typically you would like to see a monopole (i.e. stronger or weaker low center) or dipole (i.e. faster/slower or east/west). The GEFS have no such signal, just broad areas of higher or lower pressures, never mind that there isn't any real mean low center to speak of. So anotherwords if we didn’t have the EPS, we’d think no storm was coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: But, before the Blizzard...didn't the models act the "same" way until like 48 hrs away, or am i off big time? Prior to the blizzard the ensemble systems agreed on the important features contributing to variance. That isn't always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: But, before the Blizzard...didn't the models act the "same" way until like 48 hrs away, or am i off big time? GFS was clueless till very close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’ll follow the likes of the EURO and RGEM once we get closer. I expect a nuke run or two of the UKMET too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We don't have to toss it, it just doesn't really inform us of anything. Based on the EPS we can say "if this, then that" but the GEFS doesn't provide enough info to do that. So basically, It has no signal of a SLP on the east coast? Just a broad area of lower pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So anotherwords if we didn’t have the EPS, we’d think no storm was coming? Not exactly. There are GEFS members with storms, but they differ pretty wildly with respect to timing and/or location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: So basically, It has no signal of a SLP on the east coast? Just a broad area of lower pressure? Pretty much, because like I said to Kevin it has pretty substantial differences among the members in timing and/or location. If it can't figure out which shortwave is influencing the variance, you can't get a sensitivity signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty much, because like I said to Kevin it has pretty substantial differences among the members in timing and/or location. If it can't figure out which shortwave is influencing the variance, you can't get a sensitivity signal. Ok, That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Rays not gonna like this turn of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rays not gonna like this turn of events What turn of events? We're still at least a couple days away from having a clearer picture of what is going on in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Hi everyone I haven't been on this forum for a while as I have had influenza and been extremely ill. Unfortunately everything has taken a turn for the worse. Rainfall, floods, warm temps. I think this winter will flip flop, from warm temps and rain to below 0 and blizzards. That's unfortunately how the weather is in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What turn of events? We're still at least a couple days away from having a clearer picture of what is going on in the flow. Yea but it has to fit his seasonal calls. If he is off by a few days or a few inches, there’s collateral damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea but it has to fit his seasonal calls. If he is off by a few days or a few inches, there’s collateral damage. At least he's getting the torch he was rooting for. I don't know who would root for this weather in the winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rays not gonna like this turn of events The storm? I love it...I'm glad my big storm window worked out, but I'm not gong to nail the whole season...I hope to get the general idea, and learn from the aspects that I miss. It looks like I was right in identifying the 17-18th as the time to focus on, and not the 16th, but no.....I didn't expect another big event so soon, so this would stray from the outlook Yes, I would another blizzard, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At least he's getting the torch he was rooting for. I don't know who would root for this weather in the winter though. Extremely sick people. We pray for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At least he's getting the torch he was rooting for. I don't know who would root for this weather in the winter though. I wasn't rooting for it...I was expecting it, but it looks like the general pattern thereafter may not be as bad as I had feared. What I want and what I forecast are two different things...unless you're Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea but it has to fit his seasonal calls. If he is off by a few days or a few inches, there’s collateral damage. I'm happy with it....I'd love to whiff on the extended thaw...as long as you understand why you were off, its fine. I fully admit...I may be wrong on the long respite period, but I did make it clear that storms are still possible because its mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What turn of events? We're still at least a couple days away from having a clearer picture of what is going on in the flow. Yes, this could still go to crap, and needless to say, so can't the extended range. You think some would learn after selling on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We don't have to toss it, it just doesn't really inform us of anything. Based on the EPS we can say "if this, then that" but the GEFS doesn't provide enough info to do that. EPS looked slower and more concentrated vs 00z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The storm? I love it...I'm glad my big storm window worked out, but I'm not gong to nail the whole season...I hope to get the general idea, and learn from the aspects that I miss. It looks like I was right in identifying the 17-18th as the time to focus on, and not the 16th, but no.....I didn't expect another big event so soon, so this would stray from the outlook Yes, I would another blizzard, regardless. Put the 22nd /24th on the Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does that mean? I interpret that as we have no signal regarding what is causing the variation amongst ensemble members....ie, we do not know definitively what to watch for moving forward. We can speculate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't rooting for it...I was expecting it, but it looks like the general pattern thereafter may not be as bad as I had feared. What I want and what I forecast are two different things...unless you're Kevin I think Chris was referring to Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Put the 22nd /24th on the Radar I am very meticulous as far as how reality compares to my outlook because the outlook itself is so detailed...how would I grade it? I don't lose sleep over it when things go awry, though....if that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think Chris was referring to Kev I don't think so, he replied to Luke's comment about my seasonal call. But NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.