Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,881
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gilzed378
    Newest Member
    Gilzed378
    Joined

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2018 at 12:33 PM, weathafella said:

I’ve been following DEN and over the past few days you can see the correction east in the ridge/trof alignment.   MEX has added 10+ to the highs Thursday and any snow idea is gone.

Expand  

OMG I got worried until mreaves pointed out that DEN was Denver!  I thought is was some sort of model or something and that our snow and cold chances were decreasing.  Lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Relative to that flow appeal ...and probably measurably so at that ... the 850 mb temperature spread south of ~ the 40th parallel remains remarkably mild .. interesting.  You can really see that in the Euro's end frames.  Not a testament to it's verification, no... but, the D10 look and the 850 mb t layout don't really match well with the "climatology of that appeal" - if there could ever be such a metric...heh. 

Simply put ..it's like the model's are hinting at running us through a highly amplified pattern while managing to somehow keep the cold bottled in Canada.  I mean it does come down in these transient plumes and lobes but they roll out.  We don't really see a big arctic dump south of the border despite the mid and extended range.  And that appears to be the case in all the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward.  Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely)

(-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... 

That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically.  Numbing enough though... 

We'll see how it breaks.  I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. 

I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive.  Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this..  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2018 at 2:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward.  Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely)

(-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... 

That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically.  Numbing enough though... 

We'll see how it breaks.  I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. 

I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive.  Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this..  

Expand  

Completely agree. For at least 2 maybe 3 weeks...should be wintry. We'll see if this relaxes 2nd half of the month, but if it does...my guess is it will not be abrupt. On a side note, the strat is an ice box. There is no sign of warming or weakening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2018 at 2:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward.  Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely)

(-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... 

That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically.  Numbing enough though... 

We'll see how it breaks.  I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. 

I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive.  Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this..  

Expand  

Is there a between a strong MJO and a -NAO?  Maybe our old friend could make a winter appearance....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 1/29/2018 at 2:38 PM, CoastalWx said:

... On a side note, the strat is an ice box. There is no sign of warming or weakening.

Expand  

and isn't that odd?  ..sort of I guess.. 

It's known there's a correlation with the QBO ... https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS-3297.1   ... blah blah this and other material abound.  But this year 'seems' to just not take advantage of both a weakened solar cycle on top of a favorable phase of the QBO?   

You'd think there'd evidence of an SSW by now...  nothing -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

hm.. just looking at the QBO numbers...  

You know, it could be a timing nuance.   The 30 MB mode is most definitely negative, but ...the 50 MB sigma is positive, though descending.  That latter behavior is normal; the wave tends to begin oscillation in the upper levels, ... then, downward propagation (lag) then realizes the phase changes in the lower levels before the anomaly dissipates... By then, the 30 mb is probably already beginning to reverse... and the cycle repeats in the opposite anomaly ... 

It may just be that the SSW correlation has some sort of time-lag ... I know that solar minimum and maximum, are both effected differently by the E vs W phase of the QBO..  We are definitely in a solar minimum, and the 50 MB QBO phase is positive ...then falling; erstwhile the 30 MB has been negative for many months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...