Isotherm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 8:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm fine with it..that was expected to happen mid season. I'm pretty confident the nice look comes back later in Feb and into March. Doesn't mean we can't snow in the mean time... Expand Pattern evolving congruously with my winter outlook as well. Front third cold/snowy pattern transitions to a more retracted jet/low AAM regime mid to late winter. My first window for a large event in the Northeast verified (well, I had late December - so a three day miss), and I had a second window for a potential larger event in the Feb 1-15 period. I think it will be more toward the second half of the period right now. The pattern will be hostile for the coast, particularly NYC southward, for at least 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Kevin says hideous-Scooter says improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:14 AM, weathafella said: Kevin says hideous-Scooter says improved. Expand Thru week 3 hideous.. iron clad there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:55 AM, Isotherm said: Pattern evolving congruously with my winter outlook as well. Front third cold/snowy pattern transitions to a more retracted jet/low AAM regime mid to late winter. My first window for a large event in the Northeast verified (well, I had late December - so a three day miss), and I had a second window for a potential larger event in the Feb 1-15 period. I think it will be more toward the second half of the period right now. The pattern will be hostile for the coast, particularly NYC southward, for at least 2-3 weeks. Expand We agree for the most part...but my second window is a bit later than your's. I could def. see mid Feb working out, though....mass field shift as colder regime takes hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Honestly everyone after an extreme weather event has torn up my yArd and even ripped out part of my water well I have to say things aren't looking up. I have not been able to check the forum as extreme weather has been tearing up my yard day and night. If I can't live here without my whole yard getting ripped up why do I try? Feeling really down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ok I just looked at indices on the so called 46 day euro aka weeklies. Post 2/1 AO/NAO/EPO drops, PNA climbs out reaching positive territory week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:20 AM, weathafella said: Ok I just looked at indices on the so called 46 day euro aka weeklies. Post 2/1 AO/NAO/EPO drops, PNA climbs out reaching positive territory week 4. Expand Putting in terms, week 3 Leon. Week thru 6 Feb 13 March 13 mini Feb 15 knocking on your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Thru week 3 hideous.. iron clad there Expand Week 3 was ugly but a slight improvement out west. I’ve seen worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:19 AM, Weatherexpert said: Honestly everyone after an extreme weather event has torn up my yArd and even ripped out part of my water well I have to say things aren't looking up. I have not been able to check the forum as extreme weather has been tearing up my yard day and night. If I can't live here without my whole yard getting ripped up why do I try? Feeling really down today. Expand Flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:19 AM, Weatherexpert said: Honestly everyone after an extreme weather event has torn up my yArd and even ripped out part of my water well I have to say things aren't looking up. I have not been able to check the forum as extreme weather has been tearing up my yard day and night. If I can't live here without my whole yard getting ripped up why do I try? Feeling really down today. Expand Meteor impact? Cthulhu rising from the nether regions?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro really builds the strong cold high to the north and pushes a backdoor thru this weekend, squashing any torch with ice to rain early next week. Hopefully it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11-15 looks active and cold enough for now. We epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 11:07 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro really builds the strong cold high to the north and pushes a backdoor thru this weekend, squashing any torch with ice to rain early next week. Hopefully it's right Expand On 1/16/2018 at 11:30 AM, weathafella said: 11-15 looks active and cold enough for now. We epic? Expand Winter lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:19 AM, Weatherexpert said: Honestly everyone after an extreme weather event has torn up my yArd and even ripped out part of my water well I have to say things aren't looking up. I have not been able to check the forum as extreme weather has been tearing up my yard day and night. If I can't live here without my whole yard getting ripped up why do I try? Feeling really down today. Expand What the hell are you talking about? Why is your specific location conducive to people pouring in like locusts, and then to ruining your yard in search of extreme weather goodness? Even more importantly why are they so aggressive, and how and why did they rip out part of your water well? What prevented them from taking out the whole thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 11:07 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro really builds the strong cold high to the north and pushes a backdoor thru this weekend, squashing any torch with ice to rain early next week. Hopefully it's right Expand AO looks to go negative next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:16 PM, OceanStWx said: Nice 20 knot easterly wind there. Certainly looks like a nasty forecast sounding anyway. Expand interesting. We've been just getting pelted for hours. It was supposed to be zr by 12z, but looks like the good old 3c rule didn't work today. warm nose 4.4c. I bet it will changeover to a lighter zr once the fatter, stronger lift moves off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Could end up being an over-top pattern ... basically, where waves rippling overhead as opposed to more underneath... and you still get wintry appeals here and there due to the fact that New England has a unique propensity (geographic/topographic ... fluid synoptics...etc..) for "tucking" and junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:58 PM, OSUmetstud said: interesting. We've been just getting pelted for hours. It was supposed to be zr by 12z, but looks like the good old 3c rule didn't work today. warm nose 4.4c. I bet it will changeover to a lighter zr once the fatter, stronger lift moves off to the east. Expand That sounding is pretty good for sleet imho because the cold layer is more than -6C. That often can trump the warm layer being more than 3C. That's also a pretty deep cold layer too. Starts around 875mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 2:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: That sounding is pretty good for sleet imho because the cold layer is more than -6C. That often can trump the warm layer being more than 3C. That's also a pretty deep cold layer too. Starts around 875mb. Expand Yeah, that's what's been going on. We've had some snow mixing in too, which makes sense in a salty marine environnment with nucleiation around -6c. The models kinda overestimated the warm nose I think, some of it was eroded due to lift on the north side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We door we door after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:35 PM, CoastalWx said: We door we door after Sunday. Expand Thats a mean door. Euro slipping a secondary across SE MA now. Certainty gonna torch Saturday and somewhat Sunday before the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:40 PM, wx2fish said: Thats a mean door. Euro slipping a secondary across SE MA now. Certainty gonna torch Saturday and somewhat Sunday before the door. Expand AND AFTER THE DOOR? More reasonable? or more better chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:35 PM, CoastalWx said: We door we door after Sunday. Expand AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I suspect as is and assuming some synoptic achievement ...whatever MOS numbers you got for Saturday.. you ought to give them a boost. That day has bust incarnate written all over it... Even at this time of year...still some 20 days from the end of the annual solar nadir, given to that deep layer WSW wafter look you're well mixed and probably have an anomalously tall mixing depth relative to time of year and diabatic concerns. Probably 7 F over present ...maybe even more. Granted, that's predicated on the assumption that the synoptics of the Euro/GFS oper blend verifies... notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nice little miller B nuke at the end of the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I suspect as is and assuming some synoptic achievement ...whatever MOS numbers you got for Saturday.. you ought to give them a boost. That day has bust incarnate written all over it... Even at this time of year...still some 20 days from the end of the annual solar nadir, given to that deep layer WSW wafter look you're well mixed and probably have an anomalously tall mixing depth relative to time of year and diabatic concerns. Probably 7 F over present ...maybe even more. Granted, that's predicated on the assumption that the synoptics of the Euro/GFS oper blend verifies... notwithstanding. Expand With that look Id take the over on Sat and the under on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Getting close to a blue bomb for CNE/NNE on Tuesday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: Nice little miller B nuke at the end of the Euro run. Expand Tellies are favorable for that There will be cold shots during this thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 7:24 PM, Snow88 said: Tellies are favorable for that There will be cold shots during this thaw Expand When should we expect -nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 7:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When should we expect -nao? Expand Not anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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