anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 MehQuickly changes back to snow in Lehigh though after thatSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Quickly changes back to snow in Lehigh though after that Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Fugly. I will take my up to 1" or so and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Fugly. I will take my up to 1" or so and run. 3k doesn't do the rain dance Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 3k doesn't do the rain dance Sent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkBut compare last 3 runs of the 3k. Taking big jumps NW with the rain line later. Not saying Lehigh/Northampton will get majority rain at all. Just noting the trend shouldnt be ignored and will cut totals. Also appears slightly drier with overall qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 14 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 3k doesn't do the rain dance Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk But compare last 3 runs of the 3k. Taking big jumps NW with the rain line later. Not saying Lehigh/Northampton will get majority rain at all. Just noting the trend shouldnt be ignored and will cut totals. Also appears slightly drier with overall qpf. Those trends have burned me in some past events all the way up here on the other side of the Blue Mountain, where we were expected to remain all snow, but the warm air got farther northwest than expected and we tainted. Not saying it'll happen with this one, but it does indeed happen. Last year's March storm was a prime example. Tamaqua was to remain all snow with totals approaching 30 inches, and it flipped to sleet for a time holding accumulations to 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Those trends have burned me in some past events all the way up here on the other side of the Blue Mountain, where we were expected to remain all snow, but the warm air got farther northwest than expected and we tainted. Not saying it'll happen with this one, but it does indeed happen. Last year's March storm was a prime example. Tamaqua was to remain all snow with totals approaching 30 inches, and it flipped to sleet for a time holding accumulations to 20 inches.Waa almost always goes farther N and W than modeled and by a decent amount too. Im pulling for the LV crew.....they deserve a good N and W of Philly thumping. Hopefully the seasonal trend of overachieving and things going favorably continue up that way. Im optimistic and havent changed my totals for now. Trends on guidance do have me nervous tho and shouldnt be overlooked and discarded as just noise. GL all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This was never a big deal in eastern PA. Miller B with storm developing east of NJ means very little for our area. Temps are terrible too. oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This was never a big deal in eastern PA. Miller B with storm developing east of NJ means very little for our area. Temps are terrible too. oh well....LOLSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Even looking at radar you can tell we are in a bit of a screw zone. First frontal passage has stalled from York up to Schuylkill and Poconos and the coastal development will develop to our east too much. Might get 2-4" for the lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: LOL Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Great analysis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The real story is how shockingly bad model performance is this season, days and days there was to be snow today from a front and only yesterday did they pickup the fact the front washes out before SEPA. Then there is this Miller b now to bring the snow.. NAM and RGEM tend to be too warm, GEM coming in is a snowstorm tonight N&W Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yeah on further review the Canadian is meh, .10" rain, .10" ZR and 1-3.5" snow Better than nothing the poor MA crew getting jipped again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Expectations set at 2" locally, this has high bust potential both high and low numbers wise should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Expectations set at 1" for Lansdale. Working in Horsham today -- the sun is peeking out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Expectations set at 6" here on the blue mountain rangeSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winter storm warning haz been hoisted!Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 my expectations are set at a dusting in lower bucks after the 12z suite. An inch would be a pleasant surprise, 2 inches would be a miracle. I think this will be an overperformer N and W into the LV. Allentown and Reading may start warm but temps will crash quick up there and there should be plenty of precip left for a good thump. Hope you N and W guys get an over performer like us down here have gotten all year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: my expectations are set at a dusting in lower bucks after the 12z suite. An inch would be a pleasant surprise, 2 inches would be a miracle. I think this will be an overperformer N and W into the LV. Allentown and Reading may start warm but temps will crash quick up there and there should be plenty of precip left for a good thump. Hope you N and W guys get an over performer like us down here have gotten all year long. Yeah I'm practically right on the line where a good snowfall could happen or a mediocre one. For some reason I'm pessimistic about this storm due to the temperature profiles and the current radar look with precip still to my west, but I'm just hoping for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: my expectations are set at a dusting in lower bucks after the 12z suite. An inch would be a pleasant surprise, 2 inches would be a miracle. I think this will be an overperformer N and W into the LV. Allentown and Reading may start warm but temps will crash quick up there and there should be plenty of precip left for a good thump. Hope you N and W guys get an over performer like us down here have gotten all year long. It's looking good. Waiting for the slow sag SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wxsim with 12z has no mixing issues....but very little qpf with only 0.13" - 1" to 1.5" should do it for NW Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Newman said: Yeah I'm practically right on the line where a good snowfall could happen or a mediocre one. For some reason I'm pessimistic about this storm due to the temperature profiles and the current radar look with precip still to my west, but I'm just hoping for 2-4". Yeah I'm hopeful for 4" out here a few miles looks to make a big difference, we got about an inch this morning at home and just a dusting in Boyertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yeah I'm hopeful for 4" out here a few miles looks to make a big difference, we got about an inch this morning at home and just a dusting in Boyertown About 1/4 to 1/2" here in eastern Berks this morning. Jealous of the central PA folk who have had that slug of moisture stalled over them all afternoon, albeit it looks fairly light on radar. That precip is starting to make its way into Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 They barely have 2". The show is tonight. People jumping cliffs its crazySent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2am hrrr. Lv poc getting thumpedSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 the 18Z NAM is a massive kicks in the nuts to SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: the 18Z NAM is a massive kicks in the nuts to SEPA. Another kick from the GFS when we are down, comes in colder all snow but QPF is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We can never trust miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: We can never trust miller B's GFS has less snow in the Northeast and more in NC/VA from last run. When it comes to the south getting snow, I will ALWAYS sit out a storm for them to get theirs. Not saying this one is theirs, but I love when the southern states get snow. Either way, this was never SE PA's storm to begin with and models are trending back to what they had like 2-3 days ago (not much snow). I'll enjoy my 3 inches which will make it my 2nd biggest storm to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR says we all lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Here is the 21z RAP: I really don't know what to think of this storm right now. Many models show one thing while others show another. However, I'm not as optimistic as I was this morning. Don't like how radar looks as of right now and it seems we seem to be in the screw hole between the stalled front and the developing coastal enhancement. Hoping things push in soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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