Bluescat1 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 hours ago, anthonyweather said: Yeah yeah lol. I refuse to look at dt either. He sickens me Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Don't shoot me I am just the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ok, I'm past the coastal idea (for now of course) and now refocused on hopefully an inch of snow Tues. - Wed. It's something on the table ~72 hours from now or so. I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS showing 3-4" from a frontal passage, i will believe that when i see ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS showing 3-4" from a frontal passage, i will believe that when i see ground truth Euro has you in the bullseye 2 or 3" there. Threat is legit. Has a general c-2" feel SE PA with 3" lollis but we have time to nail it down and fine tune/adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ralph i liked what the euro showed at 0z and It wouldn't take much more of a tug west to enhance qpf from coastal component. Long shot in this progressive regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ralph i liked what the euro showed at 0z and It wouldn't take much more of a tug west to enhance qpf from coastal component. Long shot in this progressive regime. NAM is trending how you mentioned. CRAS is also well west with more enhancement as is the NAVGEM. As always it seems the mesos are starting to pickup on details the globals are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 and Dr No paints a subsidence zone over SEPA Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The way i see it the further west the coastal low gets like today's 12z it robs the frontal moisture and gives us subsidence so we want the low east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Per JB at WB.... The snow event has 4 parts. part 1 is what we see now, but it falls apart tomorrow coming east Part 2 is the snow pushing south that goes into the deep south. Part 3 is sort of an offshoot of that The front pushes to the east coast and snow falls behind it and a piece of the energy coming out leads to enhanced snow Pa into New England The 4th part is the negative coming thru the slot. This looks to me to be a widespread 4-8 in the mid atlantic as we go 20-30 to 1, Its more a DC than NYC event though if the upper feature is stronger that second part will come north further, But I have no changes, and if you look at the euro ensembles, look where the axis of what is now just 2-4 ( at 10-1) is Of course, the subject of the Raging Weatherbull is over Arkansas, but why would I change a 4-8 inch idea from back on Wednesday for the I-95 corridor in the mid Atlantic to northeast given an ensemble that looks like this? I am mad cause I am not in it, but this is complex and I think the overall idea is pretty good. Bhind this its going to warm and air masses from the west will be modified. May be 10-15 days before there is an accumulating snow threat in the areas in blue south of I-90 over the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Great overnight trends. Looking like 3-6 into the Lehigh valley and PoconosSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Great overnight trends. Looking like 3-6 into the Lehigh valley and PoconosSent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkNot sure I would place a bet on that. I posted in another forum that this is turning more into a light but drawn out fropa event and the light rates strung out over 24 hours or more wont pile the snow up that quickly. You guys up there do look in a better spot than say my area so you should make out better. Im just not sure what "better" is. Looks like a c-2" event down this way but I would hedge lower end of that range being common and the higher portion being the exception. Still......we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 45 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Great overnight trends. Looking like 3-6 into the Lehigh valley and Poconos Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Not sure I would place a bet on that. I posted in another forum that this is turning more into a light but drawn out fropa event and the light rates strung out over 24 hours or more wont pile the snow up that quickly. You guys up there do look in a better spot than say my area so you should make out better. Im just not sure what "better" is. Looks like a c-2" event down this way but I would hedge lower end of that range being common and the higher portion being the exception. Still......we take. I was thinking the same thing. A light strung out storm that will struggle to accumulate with temps right around 32. Hoping for just 2" here in Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Extreme SE PA snow folks are going to be pulling their hair out Tuesday watching the front hang up to our West with mood flakes and flurries falling near PHL. It will eventually move our way but it is going to be nailbiting. There is even the chance the front fizzles as the coastal takes over and SE PA gets merely a dusting. I think the c-2" is decent for now but I *may* change the wording to 'up to 2" ' tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM'd and still snowing parts of PA. Havent seen much support for the NAM but we'll see I guess. I say cut those totals in half just for being the NAM then take another 1/4-1/2 off those totals for the very light long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM'd and still snowing parts of PA. Havent seen much support for the NAM but we'll see I guess. I say cut those totals in half just for being the NAM then take another 1/4-1/2 off those totals for the very light long duration.Yup nice run. Would be nice to see that but my expectations are tempered up here in Berks. It's been a strange winter thus far. Anyway, SKOL Vikes!Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah just saw the NAM's and they've been upping the snowfall each run, bringing the stalled front slightly further east every run. Don't think I'm going to get 5", but if the precip stalls in in a good place, Lehigh Valley *could* get up to 5". Precip will need to fall heavy enough to overcome surface temps around the freezing mark so I'd keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah just saw the NAM's and they've been upping the snowfall each run, bringing the stalled front slightly further east every run. Don't think I'm going to get 5", but if the precip stalls in in a good place, Lehigh Valley *could* get up to 5". Precip will need to fall heavy enough to overcome surface temps around the freezing mark so I'd keep expectations in check.Don't think that'll be a problem imo. Ground is frozen solidSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Don't think that'll be a problem imo. Ground is frozen solidSent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkAgreed it is pretty damn cold leading up to this. I don't think it will have a hard time sticking. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS agrees with the NAM for us N&W guys 4-5" was not expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Could it really be a more snow N&W storm? Since the winter of 2010 those have been as rare as sighting the mythical Yeti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 52 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Don't think that'll be a problem imo. Ground is frozen solid Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk No doubt that the ground is frozen solid. It's cold out there. I'm just hesitant because I try to look at the negatives and weigh them against the positives. Only negatives, as of right now, is surface temps right around freezing and maybe snowfall rates being on the lower end. There's probably more negatives but to my novice mind those are the only ones. Hopefully some type of banding can form and bring rates up and ratios up as well. I agree that there may be more snow in store for the Lehigh Valley than currently predicted by the NWS. I'd call 2-4" with locally 6" lollis in the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Monmouth only .5-1"? Yeah this is not the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 this is a n and w storm imo. extreme se pa and east will be lucky to see an inch and a period of mood flakes amounting to a coating being most likely. 2-4" for the N and W burbs seems like a good bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 this is a n and w storm imo. extreme se pa and east will be lucky to see an inch and a period of mood flakes amounting to a coating being most likely. 2-4" for the N and W burbs seems like a good bet right now.Bout damn time.Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: I agree that there may be more snow in store for the Lehigh Valley than currently predicted by the NWS. I'd call 2-4" with locally 6" lollis in the poconos. Yeah. For my location, the latest snowfall map out of State College has me in the probable 4-6 range. http://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter 18 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Bout damn time. Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Newman said: Yeah just saw the NAM's and they've been upping the snowfall each run, bringing the stalled front slightly further east every run. Don't think I'm going to get 5", but if the precip stalls in in a good place, Lehigh Valley *could* get up to 5". Precip will need to fall heavy enough to overcome surface temps around the freezing mark so I'd keep expectations in check. I'm liking that 5" prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 How does the Euro look? MA forum hates it. NYC nw crew love it. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Its not a storm because south if I-95 and nyc dont get much. God forbid N&w of I95 get somethingSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Its not a storm because south if I-95 and nyc dont get much. God forbid N&w of I95 get something Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Yes throw it out for sure its clear to anybody living since 2010 this kind of map cannot verify lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Its not a storm because south if I-95 and nyc dont get much. God forbid N&w of I95 get something Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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