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January 14-15th Clipper System


HillsdaleMIWeather

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Still struggling with top-down saturation here.  One moment there'll be a burst of flurries, and then not a flake to be seen.  Sun is still poking through from time to time as well.  

Strange cut-off along I39 too. Pretty much nothing here yet.

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13 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Strange cut-off along I39 too. Pretty much nothing here yet.

Looks like Rochelle and La Salle are picking up a few flakes now.  The flakes here have been nice dendrites, but very sparse, and sort of just floating around like confetti in the breeze lol.

EDIT:  HRRR is slowly shrinking the screw hole out this way.  Hope trends continue.  Yeah I lied earlier, I'm still looking at models. :lol:

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Radar trends upstream are not looking that impressive yet and do favor a more northeast solution. NWS DSM has updated our forecast totals by switching from ~1" to 1-3" so there must be angles to this that are grounds for upgrading totals but 18z NAM model has come out and looks BAD, doing a sharp cutoff and very tight gradient from zero to 5 inches well to our northeast and leaving us in a widespread swath of no snow at all but what is suspicious about that is while unimpressive intensity, it's already snowing in places it leaves dry. I don't trust the NAM outlier yet. HRRR and RAP are holding fairly steady with their all-day trends in this area. And the 3km NAM is way different and much closer to other continuing models

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...THEN BITTERLY COLD WIND-CHILLS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown,
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville,
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris,
Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson,
Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and very cold wind chills expected.

* WHERE...All of central and southeast Illinois

* WHEN...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow is in effect from 9 PM
  this evening to noon Monday. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect
  from 6 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will fall across the
  area tonight into early Monday morning. Storm total snow
  accumulations will be 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of
  up to 4 inches north of I-74. Bitterly cold wind-chills will
  develop in the wake of the system. Wind-chill values will bottom
  out from 15 below to 20 below zero Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.
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2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Radar trends upstream are not looking that impressive yet and do favor a more northeast solution. NWS DSM has updated our forecast totals by switching from ~1" to 1-3" so there must be angles to this that are grounds for upgrading totals but 18z NAM model has come out and looks BAD, doing a sharp cutoff and very tight gradient from zero to 5 inches well to our northeast and leaving us in a widespread swath of no snow at all but what is suspicious about that is while unimpressive intensity, it's already snowing in places it leaves dry. I don't trust the NAM outlier yet. HRRR and RAP are holding fairly steady with their all-day trends in this area. And the 3km NAM is way different and much closer to other continuing models

Because the system hasn't really hit the better moisture yet and still waiting on vort to approach. At this time I wouldn't be looking at nam. More short range hi res models. DVN actually stated the vort is south of where the 12z models had it so if anything a south trend is possible 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Thinking the same thing.  ILN issued one for tomorrow.....now I can only hope it meets the same level as the one issued for the Friday storm....

tell me about it still been almost 3 years since I've been under a winter storm warning tired of these winter weather advisories for 2 inches

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2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Because the system hasn't really hit the better moisture yet and still waiting on vort to approach. At this time I wouldn't be looking at nam. More short range hi res models. DVN actually stated the vort is south of where the 12z models had it so if anything a south trend is possible 

And that's exactly what to appears to have happened here! Radar blew up just as it was closing in and we're at least getting our forecasted amounts if not overperformer locally.

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