cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Still struggling with top-down saturation here. One moment there'll be a burst of flurries, and then not a flake to be seen. Sun is still poking through from time to time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Still struggling with top-down saturation here. One moment there'll be a burst of flurries, and then not a flake to be seen. Sun is still poking through from time to time as well. Strange cut-off along I39 too. Pretty much nothing here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 LOT issued an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Strange cut-off along I39 too. Pretty much nothing here yet. Looks like Rochelle and La Salle are picking up a few flakes now. The flakes here have been nice dendrites, but very sparse, and sort of just floating around like confetti in the breeze lol. EDIT: HRRR is slowly shrinking the screw hole out this way. Hope trends continue. Yeah I lied earlier, I'm still looking at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5" would give MKE 5.1" on the month and over double the total snowfall to date for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, UMB WX said: 5" would give MKE 5.1" on the month and over double the total snowfall to date for this winter MKX going with 6-9" near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Radar trends upstream are not looking that impressive yet and do favor a more northeast solution. NWS DSM has updated our forecast totals by switching from ~1" to 1-3" so there must be angles to this that are grounds for upgrading totals but 18z NAM model has come out and looks BAD, doing a sharp cutoff and very tight gradient from zero to 5 inches well to our northeast and leaving us in a widespread swath of no snow at all but what is suspicious about that is while unimpressive intensity, it's already snowing in places it leaves dry. I don't trust the NAM outlier yet. HRRR and RAP are holding fairly steady with their all-day trends in this area. And the 3km NAM is way different and much closer to other continuing models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just noticed MKE extended the warning down the Illinois border along the lake. I think that’s the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Snowing south of Madison. Flakes are a decent size. I think we've got an overachiever..., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: MKX going with 6-9" near the lake. Good luck! Advisory just issued here as well but I don't think we'll be seening anywhere near that depth. You need a good storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18Z NAM a bit juicier, especially south into IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 DVN looks to have a fairly decent band over them. Just flurries here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 IWX issued an advisory for all their counties except Hillsdale and their Ohio counties. I think I may have jinxed myself by making the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2017/2018, the WWA winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Burst of snow here even with filtered sun. Flake size is definetely pretty large so thats a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 40 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: DVN looks to have a fairly decent band over them. Just flurries here though. Legit light snow is falling now here. Starting to whiten up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...THEN BITTERLY COLD WIND-CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean- Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass- Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas- Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford- Clay-Richland-Lawrence- Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka, Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow and very cold wind chills expected. * WHERE...All of central and southeast Illinois * WHEN...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow is in effect from 9 PM this evening to noon Monday. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 6 PM Monday to noon Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will fall across the area tonight into early Monday morning. Storm total snow accumulations will be 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of up to 4 inches north of I-74. Bitterly cold wind-chills will develop in the wake of the system. Wind-chill values will bottom out from 15 below to 20 below zero Monday night into Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: 2017/2018, the WWA winter lol. Thinking the same thing. ILN issued one for tomorrow.....now I can only hope it meets the same level as the one issued for the Friday storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said: Radar trends upstream are not looking that impressive yet and do favor a more northeast solution. NWS DSM has updated our forecast totals by switching from ~1" to 1-3" so there must be angles to this that are grounds for upgrading totals but 18z NAM model has come out and looks BAD, doing a sharp cutoff and very tight gradient from zero to 5 inches well to our northeast and leaving us in a widespread swath of no snow at all but what is suspicious about that is while unimpressive intensity, it's already snowing in places it leaves dry. I don't trust the NAM outlier yet. HRRR and RAP are holding fairly steady with their all-day trends in this area. And the 3km NAM is way different and much closer to other continuing models Because the system hasn't really hit the better moisture yet and still waiting on vort to approach. At this time I wouldn't be looking at nam. More short range hi res models. DVN actually stated the vort is south of where the 12z models had it so if anything a south trend is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks like a few tenths so far. Numerous sites are reporting vis down to 1/2 mile from near MSP down to north of OMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Snowing pretty good here now. Already a dusting and it’s only really been snowing for 15 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Thinking the same thing. ILN issued one for tomorrow.....now I can only hope it meets the same level as the one issued for the Friday storm.... tell me about it still been almost 3 years since I've been under a winter storm warning tired of these winter weather advisories for 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Thinking the same thing. ILN issued one for tomorrow.....now I can only hope it meets the same level as the one issued for the Friday storm.... ILN has Newark at a 4% chance of achieving 4"-6". One can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Update: It’s a pixie party up in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On the board with 0.1" at ORD and 0.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 WAA wing snows are now east of DVN/MLI, as they are back up to around 10 mile vis. Still spitting some pixies here, but will enter dry void shortly. New HRRR is literally giving Iowa the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Flakes are biggest I’ve seen all winter, definetely gonna have some higher ratios. Already at a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Because the system hasn't really hit the better moisture yet and still waiting on vort to approach. At this time I wouldn't be looking at nam. More short range hi res models. DVN actually stated the vort is south of where the 12z models had it so if anything a south trend is possible And that's exactly what to appears to have happened here! Radar blew up just as it was closing in and we're at least getting our forecasted amounts if not overperformer locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 0z RAP looks pretty decent for lots of us especially around Chicago with that 6" pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Whatever is going on by the lake looks cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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