January 14-15th Clipper System

[Hoosier]

Probably shouldn't do this but I think 4-5" is in play here now.  How much the lake band adds is a question... at this point it looks fairly transient this way.  Maybe a possibility of finishing around 6" if both aspects of this setup behave. 

[Chicago Storm]

That's a big number from you.

Confidence is high.

Though I also liked the Christmas Eve system, and that didn’t pan out. Ratios...


.

[hlcater]

2-3" looks like a good bet over here. Maybe slightly higher than that if ratios pan out, but since we are kind of on the edge over here, I'm not counting on it. It's already snowing, but this looks to be rather transient before the main wave moves in.

[cyclone77]

I'd be on board for higher amounts but not sold on ratios.  The soundings for a few previous clippers looked better than the ones that I've looked at for this one, and LSRs under-performed then.  After feeling confident the last few times I feel somewhat clueless when it comes to ratios, so honestly nothing would surprise me at this point lol.

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

2-3" looks like a good bet over here. Maybe slightly higher than that if ratios pan out, but since we are kind of on the edge over here, I'm not counting on it. It's already snowing, but this looks to be rather transient before the main wave moves in.

How's the flake size out there?

[hawkeye_wx]

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

How's the flake size out there?

Very light snow here with some decent flakes.

[Chicago WX]

Expecting 2" here, but I'd be happy if we got to 3" somehow. I expect this one to come in the lower range of things for IKK...ratios disappoint just like the predecessors. Still, it'll be nice to have snow on the ground again, after the recent melt-off. Good luck to all and enjoy.

[cyclone77]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Light snow here with some decent flakes.

That's good to hear. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

id be surprised if LOT doesn’t go with a WWA after issuing one the other day for a flash freeze essentially

[Baum]

Just now, CoalCityWxMan said:

id be surprised if LOT doesn’t go with a WWA after issuing one the other day for a flash freeze essentially

Gun shy until they can see flake size/ratios ....can't blame 'em.

[ConvectiveIA]

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'd be on board for higher amounts but not sold on ratios.  The soundings for a few previous clippers looked better than the ones that I've looked at for this one, and LSRs under-performed then.  After feeling confident the last few times I feel somewhat clueless when it comes to ratios, so honestly nothing would surprise me at this point lol.

Ratios are definitely something to think about as temps top out into the 20s, We certainly don't have the advantage of those 25:1 deals we got around new years. DSM NWS knows better than to jump at the 2+ inch totals being advertised by model runs for the western edge of the system in Central IA but Eastern IA and Western IL is more likely to fare well there.

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

id be surprised if LOT doesn’t go with a WWA after issuing one the other day for a flash freeze essentially

 

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

Gun shy until they can see flake size/ratios ....can't blame 'em.

They will issue one with the afternoon package.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

id be surprised if LOT doesn’t go with a WWA after issuing one the other day for a flash freeze essentially

I think they will after those 12z runs came in.  Both commutes tomorrow are involved in snow.  There should also be some blowing/drifting component, especially after the surface low passes.  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep. Something like December 2000 can be called an “active winter season”. The past few weeks aren’t even close, even for areas that have done somewhat better than northern IL.

It has been an active season here though. To be fair LOT didn't write that lol. IWX has been more in the middle though. Chicago will definitely be the belle of this (snow)ball for the first time all season.

[Chicago Storm]

HRRRx is fairly significant. Even at 10:1 ratio it has widespread 4" snowfall amounts across the area by 12z Tue, with LES still ongoing across SE. WI/NE. IL.

 

[michsnowfreak]

The SE MI snowmagnet appears to be in the shop, so i hope it is fixed quickly. Surface reflection shows a very widespread coverage of light snow throughout the Great Lakes but qpf definitely lessens the farther east in MI you go. At this point I am expecting a very long duration 2-inch grinder snow here. Since Dec 7th only 4 days have had no snow on the ground, but at this time with sublimation we basically only have a heavy dusting on the grass now. So I will not complain about a grinder powder event. Lake effect unknowns on Tuesday are in play as well.

[cyclone77]

Euro still stingy with around 0.15" here.  Some of the models are showing a little mini screw zone for areas just east of the QC, including the HRRR.  Might have to flip my 2"/2.5" call for QC/here if that works out lol.  Anyway, I'm done looking at models and will just watch the radar from here on out.

[mimillman]

Really nice lake enhancement signature and some lake effect on the 12z euro. Would almost argue warning criteria snow for the Wisconsin shoreline.

[CoalCityWxMan]

Hopefully since we’ve had bad luck with ratios so far this year, this will be different. If Ratios end up being higher, could see some isolated 5-7” totals. 

[ConvectiveIA]

12z Euro does nudge west a bit higher QPF filling in western reach of the system 

[cyclone77]

Spitting first flakes here.

[ILSNOW]

30 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Really nice lake enhancement signature and some lake effect on the 12z euro. Would almost argue warning criteria snow for the Wisconsin shoreline.

milwaukee agrees with you

 

UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...

Continuing to evaluate the need to raise snowfall accumulations in
the northern and eastern areas near Lake Michigan. This would be
due to the lake enhanced snow band pivoting southward through
these areas Monday into Monday evening, and for lake effect snow
expected later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need to
raise amounts a few inches in these areas.

Also contemplating the need for a Winter Storm Warning for
Sheboygan south to Milwaukee County, given the possible higher
amounts and impact on the Monday/Tuesday morning commutes. The
lake enhanced band will continue to be the variable that will be
most tricky to pin down, thus the most uncertainty.

[Chicago Storm]

17z HRRR has a solid 4-6" down across the heart of the LOT CWA by 11z.

[RCNYILWX]

All the evidence I've seen suggests a range of 3-6" for the LOT CWA. Perhaps to play it conservative I'd go 2" for low end of range, which would most likely be in southern CWA. The wildcard potential is for 6"+ amounts due to lake effect/lake enhancement.

 

The soundings are not perfect but good lift is definitely more favorably co-located in the DGZ for longer than on yesterday's 12z guidance. For that reason, I'd go with an average 15:1 ratio. So using a range of conservatively 0.15 qpf in south and southwest to 0.4 near the lake gives a range of about 2-6".

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

17z HRRR has a solid 4-6" down across the heart of the LOT CWA by 11z.

Nice

 

[kevlon62]

Light (and I mean light) pixie dust falling here as clouds move in.

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[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

All the evidence I've seen suggests a range of 3-6" for the LOT CWA. Perhaps to play it conservative I'd go 2" for low end of range, which would most likely be in far southern CWA. The wildcard potential is for 6"+ amounts due to lake effect/lake enhancement.

The soundings are not perfect but good lift is definitely more favorably co-located in the DGZ for longer than on yesterday's 12z guidance. For that reason, I'd go with an average 15:1 ratio. So using a range of conservatively 0.15 qpf in far south and southwest to 0.4 near the lake gives a range of about 2-6".

I sure hope we issue a WWA this afternoon. Both commutes will be affected and we'll likely have a good chunk of the CWA with typical 3-5" advisory criteria, along with likely blowing snow impacts in open areas tomorrow afternoon.

Duration of the snow should have no bearing on advisory issuance, that's only a consideration for warning issuance. The last advisory not working out for much of the area should have no bearing. In fact, if we don't issue for this event, it'll look worse since we issued for something that was a non event for parts of the area last time. It'll look inconsistent and like we don't know what we're doing.

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12z runs definitely got a bit wetter in the LOT cwa vs 00z, which of course is what the overnight afd was based on.  That's gotta be enough to push this solidly into advisory territory.

[mimillman]

9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

All the evidence I've seen suggests a range of 3-6" for the LOT CWA. Perhaps to play it conservative I'd go 2" for low end of range, which would most likely be in southern CWA. The wildcard potential is for 6"+ amounts due to lake effect/lake enhancement.

 

The soundings are not perfect but good lift is definitely more favorably co-located in the DGZ for longer than on yesterday's 12z guidance. For that reason, I'd go with an average 15:1 ratio. So using a range of conservatively 0.15 qpf in far south and southwest to 0.4 near the lake gives a range of about 2-6".

 

I sure hope we issue a WWA this afternoon. Both commutes will be affected and we'll likely have a good chunk of the CWA with typical 3-5" advisory criteria, along with likely blowing snow impacts in open areas tomorrow afternoon.

 

Duration of the snow should have no bearing on advisory issuance, that's only a consideration for warning issuance. The last advisory not working out for much of the area should have no bearing. In fact, if we don't issue for this event, it'll look worse since we issued for something that was a non event for parts of the area last time. It'll look inconsistent and like we don't know what we're doing.

 

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How does this work exactly? Are you staffed today and even if you’re not staffed, do your colleagues discuss your opinions and make a decision from there?

[RCNYILWX]

12z runs definitely got a bit wetter in the LOT cwa vs 00z, which of course is what the overnight afd was based on.  That's gotta be enough to push this solidly into advisory territory.

I felt like there was enough support to pull the trigger with the overnight issuance but yep, 12z runs should have removed any lingering doubt.

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[RCNYILWX]

How does this work exactly? Are you staffed today and even if you’re not staffed, do your colleagues discuss your opinions and make a decision from there?

I last worked Thursday, so haven't been a part of the leadup to the event for the most part. It's basically a shift partner decision to coordinate and issue headlines, so these are just my own thoughts. I'll be back in the office tomorrow. Interested to see how things are playing out.

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