RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Good stuff. You know it's a tough winter when you can only count on 12:1 ratios in this type of air mass. Would love to hear your take on how the last two weeks of January play out in the medium range thread. A lot of consternation that we are headed for an extended period of mild dry weather in the heart of winter.I'm hopeful that we can get that 3-6 hour window where ratios may average 15:1 or so based off the soundings I pulled. On the bright side, the 09z SREF bumped wetter/snowier than the 03z run, so we'll see shortly if that translates to positive trends in the operational guidance. I'll probably weigh in on the medium-long range thread later today. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Its about time Chicago/Milwaukee get some snow, it is well earned. This one is pretty much imminent, just dont want to get cocky on ratios which has already been well explained here. Clippers have been what has made Detroit the snow capital of the midwest outside the belts this winter. Clippers certainly can underperform but as a rule its more common to take the over. This one has a bit more of a strange look (perhaps because it originates from the arctic, not Alberta). Its way more expansive than most clippers, so more area than usual should see snow but maybe without that usual narrow heavy band. It looks very long duration but no impressive qpf, so I think lake involvement is a wildcard here. Id say we are good for 2"-3" of powder at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Even just an inch or two...snow on snow is always a bonus down here. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 hours ago, zinski1990 said: Of course this thing stays mainly north and then magically gives the NE another storm. Can we ever catch a break in Central Indiana, Illinois, Southern Wisconsin. This last storm grazing Indy with the heavier snow was really a kick in the gut lol. Still almost 3 years since the Indy area has seen a winter storm warning I feel your pain. I'm in Plainfield and we had a really good squall from this last storm that fully covered the grass. Haven't seen that in years! My dad in Vincennes got way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2" to perhaps 3" seems like a reasonable guess around here, not including any potential lake effect after that. Still a bit unclear on how/where that sets up but there should be a nice band swinging down the lake into this area or nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Very good runs of the 00z NAMs following positive trends on the rest of the guidance today including another bump wetter/snowier on 21z SREF. Main takeaway on the NAMs was a slower farther south surface low that results in several hour longer duration of snow into later Monday afternoon and also a period of wraparound snow Monday night-early Tuesday before any lake effect Should the rest of the 00z guidance follow suit, will likely be bumping my own call for northern IL and northwest Indiana to 2-4". Haven't looked at soundings yet, but if those look better too, then would think there's a shot for locally up to 5" amounts."Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yea 0z models def coming in juicier. You know it's been a rough winter when we are rooting for clippers to pan out. Ha. Curious to see how this pans out. Would be nice to get one more nice snow before the thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Lol. Shooting for 3 here. Can't complain much. Had a decent 6 inch pack for 3 weeks, just got another 2 to 3, top it off with some clipper icing for another week. After the last few winters I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Most models tonight have me at 3 to 3.5" which I'll gladly take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nice to see model QPF bump up a bit tonight. Gonna be conservative with ratios after being burnt twice earlier this season. Guess I'll bump up my previous 0.8-1.5" call to 1.4-2.3" for here/QC. Nice pivot point action for southern WI/northeast IL should make for a nice event there of over 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nice to see model QPF bump up a bit tonight. Gonna be conservative with ratios after being burnt twice earlier this season. Guess I'll bump up my previous 0.8-1.5" call to 1.4-2.3" for here/QC. Nice pivot point action for southern WI/northeast IL should make for a nice event there of over 3". Yeah, this evening's models are in good agreement, dropping about 0.15" here. The euro has been a bit lower, around 0.10". A couple inches looks like a good bet. 0.15" would be our second highest precip event this winter... pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, this evening's models are in good agreement, dropping about 0.15" here. The euro has been a bit lower, around 0.10". A couple inches looks like a good bet. 0.15" would be our second highest precip event this winter... pretty sad. The way this thing looks when you loop the sim reflect would lead you to believe this would crank out more intense precip than it has been modeled. Such a strong vort and impressive baroclinicy to work with at 850. Has the look of an overperformer but it seems somewhat moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The lake enhanced, eventually transitioning to lake effect band looks interesting off of Lake Michigan. Inversion heights notably better than yesterday so I would expect a more intense snow band. The low level trough orientation/wind fields suggest that everybody from the Wisconsin to Michigan shoreline and in between could be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro came in with its best run yet and close to the GEM/UKMET which were wettest operational models of the 00z suite. We get into good pivot action, including additional snow coming down from Wisconsin late Monday night into Tuesday AM. I think the ratios are still a bit of a wildcard. Using the 10:1 map from the 00z Euro as an event floor for that run gives a range of roughly 1.5-3.5" for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. With the good consensus of the 00z guidance, I feel comfortable going 2-5" for the area not including whatever LES occurs. If we can get another tick south with the surface low track, then you start to get into possibility of local amounts to 6" in NE IL as pivot action would be maximized. I'd expect there to be winter weather advisories hoisted by LOT, DVN and MKX due to significant impacts to Monday morning commute as well as blowing snow concerns later in the day Monday. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Both NAM suites ticked wetter again. Lookin' good for 3-5 here. Most INSANE0 "storm" of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 LOT goes 3-6 inch long duration fall, yet no WWA. Not that I need a designation to make me happy in the snowfall game. Surprising, as I thought there were criteria for these events. Would be surprised if that sticks if models hold sway, particularly with a rush period involved-though it maybe tempered by the holiday. Irregardless, nice trends overnight. Note: quad cities cites reasoning on holding off WWA while MKX hoisted one, though they are expecting higher amounts. Makes sense to see the 12Z suite I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z runs have come in a tick drier here compared to the 06z. So far the 12z guidance is giving us around 0.2" of precip, with amounts tailing off pretty quickly west and south. Wish we could get under that pivot and stay in the snow, but it looks like we'll be dry-slotted early tomorrow. Thinking around 2" for the QC, and 2.5" here based on 11-13:1 LSRs. 3-4" looking good for northeast IL/southeast WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, Baum said: LOT goes 3-6 inch long duration fall, yet no WWA. Not that I need a designation to make me happy in the snowfall game. Surprising, as I thought there were criteria for these events. Would be surprised if that sticks if models hold sway, particularly with a rush period involved-though it maybe tempered by the holiday. Irregardless, nice trends overnight. Note: quad cities cites reasoning on holding off WWA while MKX hoisted one, though they are expecting higher amounts. Makes sense to see the 12Z suite I suppose. Sam at IWX's take on not issuing an Advisory: No advisory being issued with this package since this is a marginal event but also in middle of what has been an active winter season in most locations. Intensity of snowfall looks to be light through the event and accums will be spread over 10-12 hours so road crews should be able to keep up and limit impacts outside of those going too fast for conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Sam at IWX's take on not issuing an Advisory: No advisory being issued with this package since this is a marginal event but also in middle of what has been an active winter season in most locations. Intensity of snowfall looks to be light through the event and accums will be spread over 10-12 hours so road crews should be able to keep up and limit impacts outside of those going too fast for conditions. Hmmm...active winter season? It never ceases to amaze me how low our standards are. The key aspect to forecasting this event will be ratios. Thinking 12:1 for now, with any LE and/or enhancement improving chances for slightly higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Hmmm...active winter season? It never ceases to amaze me how low our standards are. The key aspect to forecasting this event will be ratios. Thinking 12:1 for now, with any LE and/or enhancement improving chances for slightly higher ratios. Active winter weather season with Chicago sitting at 6” at the halfway point of met winter? Wow, yeah low standards. Cold? Yes. Dry? Absolutely. This winter almost feels like a glorified 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Hmmm...active winter season? It never ceases to amaze me how low our standards are. The key aspect to forecasting this event will be ratios. Thinking 12:1 for now, with any LE and/or enhancement improving chances for slightly higher ratios. I agree with Sam on it being an active season, but most systems have greatly underperformed compared to possible ceilings, leading to sensible weather being meh. Also, some of that perception has to do with geography, as parts of the subforum have really scored. I understand the dgz/vv issues, but still think we can eke out a slightly better than 12:1 climo and get some 15:1's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gonna go with 5.5" at ORD...Which would essentially double the current season total of 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: Active winter weather season with Chicago sitting at 6” at the halfway point of met winter? Wow, yeah low standards. Cold? Yes. Dry? Absolutely. This winter almost feels like a glorified 2011-2012. Yep. Something like December 2000 can be called an “active winter season”. The past few weeks aren’t even close, even for areas that have done somewhat better than northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Gonna go with 5.5" at ORD...Which would essentially double the current season total of 5.5" Will stick with 4”...based on 0.3” liquid and 13:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Will stick with 4”...based on 0.3” liquid and 13:1 ratios. 12z GFS is more like 0.4” and I think ratios could potentially be higher for a time. 4” seems too low for ORD imo, 6” more likely. Looks like a classic overperformer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Gonna go with 5.5" at ORD...Which would essentially double the current season total of 5.5" That's a big number from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I think generally 2-5” is a good call, essentially what LOT is suggesting. Gives a cushion on the lower end in case ratios underperform, but also highlights the upside potential. Excited to see a decent snow, the first of the year for Chicago and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 With any kind of system my hope is that a rare localized heavy band sort of parks itself over us and dumps a cool 4+ inches when we're only forecast to get 2. This is something I experienced more often in the mountain west where small cells would dump 2 feet of snow when we're only expecting 1 inch. Doesn't work like that much here I dont think. Shooting for 1.5 inches here, but just on the principle of being on the western edge of the action I can't gasp if we end up with almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 milwaukee update RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1026 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 ...Long Duration Powdery Snowfall Tonight into Monday Night... .Light snow will spread from southwest to northeast across southern Wisconsin this evening. It will then continue through Monday and into Monday night. Lake enhanced snow will occur at times Monday and Monday night over far eastern Wisconsin. Several inches of powdery snow is expected. Snow covered roads and reduced visibilities are expected during this time. WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072-150030- /O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0003.180115T0200Z-180116T1200Z/ Sheboygan-Washington-Ozaukee-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Racine, and Kenosha 1026 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Lake enhanced snow will occur at times from Monday into Monday night. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and afternoon commutes on Monday, possibly continuing into the Tuesday morning commute. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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