UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Models are converging on a slightly cooler solution, especially for the interior Hudson Valley, NNJ, NEPA, and NWCT... heavy icing looks possible around and north of 84, with a few days left, something to watch for is, colder press and easterly track.. also the unspoken story especially for areas seeing rain will be single digit temperatures possible by Sunday morning, after the storm has passed, flash freeze and dangerous conditions should be in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Models are converging on a slightly cooler solution, especially for the interior Hudson Valley, NNJ, NEPA, and NWCT... heavy icing looks possible around and north of 84, with a few days left, something to watch for is, colder press and easterly track.. also the unspoken story especially for areas seeing rain will be single digit temperatures possible by Sunday morning, after the storm has passed, flash freeze and dangerous conditions should be in store Might be a fun ride to the West Point hockey game Saturday nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Will not take too much more of a S&E trend to flip us over to Sleet after some zr. Trend is less amped yet ample moisture. Would not be surprised for zr down to Bergen Cty- Bronx Sat. Low level cold punch will be stronger than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I can't remember a weather model depicting such a large scale sleet storm as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Mt Holly afternoon afd really was hammering a change to snow & sleet I 80 north Friday night into Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Mt Holly afternoon afd really was hammering a change to snow & sleet I 80 north Friday night into Saturday, One glance at that high pressure days ago on modeling told me the story with this one. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see this gradient pattern continue the next few weeks where we see many battleground events like this. I believe this event settles in to the typical interior N and W locations with the possibility of a significant mixed bag event on their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Great timing I need to move my kids into their college dorm in Poughkeepsie on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z Deep Thunder Rain to snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Deep Thunder Rain to snow here Pretty sure that would be sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Deep Thunder Rain to snow here Anthony... Look at the key, that’s just frozen or not frozen, there is no distinguishing ice in that sim. In all actuality much of that in our area could be ice or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty sure that would be sleet 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty sure that would be sleet Absolutely would be, I explained the other day that sim reflectivity does not show mix, simply frozen/non frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Nam takes another large shift SE, cold press is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 48 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Deep Thunder Rain to snow here That isn’t snow! The mid and upper levels are still torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 New nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Absolutely would be, I explained to him the other day that sim reflectivity does not show mix, simply frozen/non frozen. I don’t know why he would think that’s snow. The mid level lows are way, way to our west at that point and aloft is still torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Should produce some good convection the next 24 hours as the warm front pushes through, at least for January standards. The secondary part of the system Friday night looks to be a real quick mover as the surface low develops over SE PA and we quickly dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Should produce some good convection the next 24 hours as the warm front pushes through, at least for January standards. The secondary part of the system Friday night looks to be a real quick mover as the surface low develops over SE PA and we quickly dry slot. Far North and West have the best shot at minor to moderate icing potential. For the I95 corridor however yes, the precip shuts down pretty quickly as drier cooler air funnels in pretty steadfastly. In the meantime, there is potential for some convective activity in NJ. Mainly high winds and heavy downpours look to be the impacts however one can not rule out some stronger activity further south. The latest GFS shows increased PWATS of over 1.5in. It has backed off the timing of bulk shear with the repositioning of the upper schematics recently, though it has increased dewpoints to near 60• for most of NJ. It also has maintained at least a modest if not strong low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS has been fairly consistent with next week's threat, although now it pops a weak low and takes it into CT but still a solid advisory level event for most. Canadian is warmer and would be very little snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro keeps ticking south Even the coast ends as some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro keeps ticking south Even the coast ends as some snow Not sure how you see that, 850mb freezing line is over Western NJ at 15z Saturday and by then precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not sure how you see that, 850mb freezing line is over Western NJ at 15z Saturday and by then precip is over Precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Precip maps If anything it's sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not sure how you see that, 850mb freezing line is over Western NJ at 15z Saturday and by then precip is over This is correct analysis. That would not be snow on the Euro. Can’t always look at the precip maps, gotta dive in deeper than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Precip is just about over at this point, but definitely a freezing rain concern for the interior at the end with the shallow cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 thunder potential looks more interesting than a few measly sleet pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: thunder potential looks more interesting than a few measly sleet pellets Yeah, and the PWAT's will be near record levels for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: thunder potential looks more interesting than a few measly sleet pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: thunder potential looks more interesting than a few measly sleet pellets Yup fully agree. Also don’t sleep on some pretty gusty CAA winds on the backside as the atmosphere looks to become well mixed. Certainly also in the warm sector as the modest low level jet roars overhead(we will see what can mix down) but oftentimes this time of year we get our best winds in the drier/colder side of systems and that may in fact be the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: If anything it's sleet. Not only is it just sleet it’s a very brief period of sleet before the 700mb dry slot punches in. It’s all ending completely at that point and we probably start seeing breaks of sun shortly thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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