January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those surface temps on the nam are real cold.

Surface temps north of the front have always been modeled as frigid.

Its like tickling the teens at the surface before 850 goes below freezing.

12z GFS SAT morning had 57F at ORH and 13F here at MVL.  That's insane.

 

 

[dryslot]

[jbenedet]

The wave heading into Quebec Friday, which will partly be responsible for all the warmth through Friday seems to be trending stronger on all guidance. It's a catch-22 of sorts - warmth likely outperforms tomorrow and Friday, BUT the deeper this wave gets, the more UL height falls (surface canadian HP) we get on the backside, out ahead of our developing winter storm... 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Surface temps north of the front have always been modeled as frigid.

Its like tickling the teens at the surface before 850 goes below freezing.

12z GFS SAT morning had 57F at ORH and 13F here at MVL.  That's insane.

 

 

That's a crazy sharp gradient on temps........lol

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

nice, looks like caribou avoids most of the rn. be riding in sn on sat.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

nice, looks like caribou avoids most of the rn. be riding in sn on sat.

Provided the Nam is right.................

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Provided the Nam is right.................

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Provided the Nam is right.................

Euro would put down a pretty good strip on the backside too from N VT through Jackman to Caribou 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

Those are the keys right here that you mention, Thats what we have been wanting to see happen to at least head off the flooding rains for some areas, Keep both separate, And it seems that qpf is getting cut back as well in some areas.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro would put down a pretty good strip on the backside too from N VT through Jackman to Caribou 

That is something we want to see, Some decent back end snows, Seems like all the model runs today are keeping the second wave weaker with less of a phase an tracking further east allowing the colder air to filter in as the pv is asserting itself more as we get closer in.

[CT Rain]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

Yeah I like a southerly solution too. 

I think a flash freeze south of the Pike is more likely than an "ice storm".

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

It's like we were talking about the other day... they either go up towards MSS or head towards the ocean.  But the BGM-ALB-CON track is an outlier.

[dryslot]

Once the front pushes offshore, Looks like moisture hangs back with some currier and ives snow into Sunday morning.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's like we were talking about the other day... they either go up towards MSS or head towards the ocean.  But the BGM-ALB-CON track is an outlier.

Looks like a better scenario for Moose Fart Mtn.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Locally this storm is likely to be a real mess regardless of any flash freeze. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks like a more significant winter system for WMA then S nH

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a better scenario for Moose Fart Mtn.

Scott and his wife out for a ride after the storm.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said:

Locally this storm is likely to be a real mess regardless of any flash freeze. 

It looks like the absurd rain amounts will be offshore hopefully. But yeah Lots of standing water will freeze. Too bad the snow will be eviscerated 

[HoarfrostHubb]

46 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I like a southerly solution too. 

I think a flash freeze south of the Pike is more likely than an "ice storm".

Even for much of N of the Pike I’m leaning more towards that than a typical ice storm.  I am just talking SNE though. 

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I like a southerly solution too. 

I think a flash freeze south of the Pike is more likely than an "ice storm".

Could be really nasty Sat evening...looks like a lot of moisture is hanging back so wouldn't be surprised at freezing drizzle...maybe eventually a light snow dusting to top it off...but def not ideal for driving on untreated roads.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a more significant winter system for WMA then S nH

Keene, etc could be ok

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Could be really nasty Sat evening...looks like a lot of moisture is hanging back so wouldn't be surprised at freezing drizzle...maybe eventually a light snow dusting to top it off...but def not ideal for driving on untreated roads.

Rain will wash all the salt away too. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ping fest for some? Or is it too warm aloft?

[butterfish55]

Really interested to see what the conditions will be during the Pats game.  

[ORH_wxman]

Lack of QPF is really the inhibiting factor in the big ice scenario....the southern stream has weakened...so we're not seeing a lot of QPF fall as frozen on the cold side. It's generally under an inch. Maybe that changes, but it's mostly below the threshold of damaging ice IMHO.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks like the absurd rain amounts will be offshore hopefully.

^ This

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks like the absurd rain amounts will be offshore hopefully. But yeah Lots of standing water will freeze. Too bad the snow will be eviscerated 

Ideally we rebuild in a week or so. 

[eyewall]

I am liking the trends today. I will take several inches of snow with taint over a half inch of ice.

[Ginx snewx]

Pope took a lot to church

[wxeyeNH]

For those of you that are going to lose your pack with this storm, you will like the new 18Z GFS