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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What awesome conditions overall and then this. WTF. I'm not even trying to rub it in....that completely stinks.. I suppose maybe far NNE could fair ok.

It's been good the past couple of days...it really wasn't very good during the Arctic freeze and high winds.  That stuff is just too cold for snow haha.  It ends up as hardpack and the crystals are just so tightly packed.  

Yesterday was amazing.  Temps come up to 20F (40 degrees warmer than they were) and those crystal bonds loosen right up and it goes from a hardpack firm back to packed powder.  It's really fascinating how that happens.  

But we've been due for a rain, IMO.  It's going to happen sooner or later but does suck for the MLK crowd.  

For the mountains though they'll get more skier visits than during the Arctic blast.  I've never seen it so empty for a Saturday in Jan as last weekend...like Tuesday in April levels.  Would've been much busier if it rained, oddly enough.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro got a bit colder, but what a deluge across se ma

Was kind of surprised to see it tick colder. Still tries to track it over the interior though. But you can see early on where the front is setting up. Over SE MA or so. That's prob where the low would track in reality instead of over the Catskills and greens.

Still not really buying much wintry wx though south of central VT-NH until I see a trend back to a bit stronger with PV up north  

 

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wx2fish

wx2fish

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was kind of surprised to see it tick colder. Still tries to track it over the interior though. But you can see early on where the front is setting up. Over SE MA or so. That's prob where the low would track in reality instead of over the Catskills and greens.

Still not really buying much wintry wx though south of central VT-NH until I see a trend back to a bit stronger with PV up north  

 

Agree, I was expecting it to go over MSS. Still some time, but not much

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Agree, I was expecting it to go over MSS. Still some time, but not much

Yeah when I saw all those models trend colder at 12z yesterday, I was really thinking we might have a nasty storm on our hands, but it seemed more like a burp than anything.

 

Still, that's a very favorable high position if that front does get down far enough...the ageostrophic flow would be almost out of the NW so you'd get cold drain right to the coast for anyone north of the frontal boundary. So still worth watching...but clock is running out quickly. Need to see a big jump tonight I think as we'll be getting to 84 hours out....if we're still seeing tracks from West Virginia to Plattsburgh tonight, then I think its game over...at least for those of us south of central NH/VT.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when I saw all those models trend colder at 12z yesterday, I was really thinking we might have a nasty storm on our hands, but it seemed more like a burp than anything.

 

Still, that's a very favorable high position if that front does get down far enough...the ageostrophic flow would be almost out of the NW so you'd get cold drain right to the coast. So still worth watching...but clock is running out quickly. Need to see a big jump tonight I think as we'll be getting to 84 hours out....if we're still seeing tracks from West Virginia to Plattsburgh tonight, then I think its game over...at least for those of us south of central NH/VT.

Did it trend HP stronger and further SE than 00z?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did it trend HP stronger and further SE than 00z?

Yeah, it wasn't a lot, but enough to keep it mostly ice in CNE. PV was pressing a bit more this run in Quebec than the 00z run. That's kind of opposite to other guidance at 12z though...and since the trend was small, I'm not sure it means a whole lot. Hence, we will definitely need to see a more definitive trend of stronger/south PV push on the 00z runs or we are probably just chasing a rainstorm in the end. I'm not very optimistic about wintry precip in SNE, but we cannot rule it out yet.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it wasn't a lot, but enough to keep it mostly ice in CNE. PV was pressing a bit more this run in Quebec than the 00z run. That's kind of opposite to other guidance at 12z though...and since the trend was small, I'm not sure it means a whole lot. Hence, we will definitely need to see a more definitive trend of stronger/south PV push on the 00z runs or we are probably just chasing a rainstorm in the end. I'm not very optimistic about wintry precip in SNE, but we cannot rule it out yet.

Where do we need to see the high get to , to consider wintry appeals , changeover during Saturday etc?  Or do we just need a stronger high in general?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where do we need to see the high get to , to consider wintry appeals , changeover during Saturday etc?  Or do we just need a stronger high in general?

Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system.

The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast.

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system.

The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast.

 

Nice overview. 

One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Nice overview. 

One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get...

Yeah the kicker would act to help us in this case....the weaker and more dampened out the lead southern wave is, the colder our solution will ultimately be all else equal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher still opining that the EPS still leaves the potential for an ice storm, saying it hasn't budged over several days

It was def a little east of the OP. It would be foolish to rule out ice yet IMHO...esp for N of pike and into CNE. But even further south is still plausible albeit less likely.

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