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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still pretty warm too. NAM is def an outlier right now. The NAM's track makes the most sense...it's not tracking the thing over interior SNE like a lot of global models are and instead pushes it SE. But still...you want to see some consensus take shape. We will see what 12z today brings. 

If the NAM makes sense Ryan has his hands full, 12K (shown 2nd)but 3k says congrats MPM and Hippy Chris and Hunchie

zr_acc.us_ne (1).png

zr_acc.us_ne.png

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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58 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Including Saturday? Riding the GFS?

 

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

The midlevel front is lagging the sfc one. So it's not going to take much of a wave to throw back some precip in the freezing or frozen form. The NAM gives us a few inches of snow to finish (dangerously assuming H85 is close to the warmest level). I feel like we'll finish as a period (1/4" QPF?) of ZR to IP and then some flakes to finish it off. In the meantime, I will enjoy the torch and dry skin relief.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The midlevel front is lagging the sfc one. So it's not going to take much of a wave to throw back some precip in the freezing or frozen form. The NAM gives us a few inches of snow to finish (dangerously assuming H85 is close to the warmest level). I feel like we'll finish as a period (1/4" QPF?) of ZR to IP and then some flakes to finish it off. In the meantime, I will enjoy the torch and dry skin relief.

embrace the torch!  In Dover i'm excited about cleaner sidewalks.  It is good to have a pause in winter I think. Could be an epic 2nd half.  A little off topic, but I am wondering if the thaw that comes could be one of those thaws where most of the country warms, but New England spends some time north of the gradient, so we go up and down during the last 2 weeks of Jan, and then the patterns shifts again and we are back to winter weather for February.  Seems like it really wants to snow this year.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

That's certainly a risk with this. BUT I'm watching the northern stream torch wave we have traversing Quebec tomorrow. That wave continues to come in stronger on guidance. With that trend, I think it's possible to see better UL height falls behind it in the Northern Stream, which will give us our Canadian HP without having to completely dampen the southern stream wave...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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32 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

embrace the torch!  In Dover i'm excited about cleaner sidewalks.  It is good to have a pause in winter I think. Could be an epic 2nd half.  A little off topic, but I am wondering if the thaw that comes could be one of those thaws where most of the country warms, but New England spends some time north of the gradient, so we go up and down during the last 2 weeks of Jan, and then the patterns shifts again and we are back to winter weather for February.  Seems like it really wants to snow this year.

After the epic 11-15 day torch fail which is now our 5-10 cold shot I don't trust anything until its short term

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not much qpf left to be had once the coldfront moves thru Saturday on the 12z Nam, Pretty uneventful for frozen actually.

Kinda of a squeeze play. Best upper level dynamics out west into W NY and the redeveloping low level centers to our SE.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda of a squeeze play. Best upper level dynamics out west into W NY and the redeveloping low level centers to our SE.

Got a feeling it will mostly end up as FZDZ once the cold in the low levels moves in. You might get a little more qpf up there but the guidance is wanting to speed everything up. 

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