January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

Deep  right there

[Hoth]

20 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I thought I was the only one that hated when the kids run all over the yard after the storm.......I didn't think it was possible anybody else would even be bothered by this.......

The other thing I hate......stray leaves on my pack......heat absorbers and are detrimental to pack retainage......I have been known to get out the leaf blower to get these insidious things off my pack.....

Pretty sure I ruined my little brother's childhood because I absolutely forbade him to ruin pristine unbroken snow. It's a sickness.

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Is there ever a year where there isn't a "gradient"?  I feel like that comes up every season.....somewhere there is going to be tears

 

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Is there ever a year where there isn't a "gradient"?  I feel like that comes up every season.....somewhere there is going to be tears

as in steep. This year it's steeper than average.

[Typhoon Tip]

Can you 'magin - we have like a region wide grid failure because of the ice storm and the Pats play anyway. 

Thd scale in degree of the local media market boning would make the outage almost tolerable. I'd love to see and read about homes down the street rendered in darkness while the generators blithely carry on the game

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Deep Thunder

Southwest Event

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I thought I was the only one that hated when the kids run all over the yard after the storm.......I didn't think it was possible anybody else would even be bothered by this.......

The other thing I hate......stray leaves on my pack......heat absorbers and are detrimental to pack retainage......I have been known to get out the leaf blower to get these insidious things off my pack.....

 

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, I just told my wife that same thing that the daycare kids are doing a good job of beating up the snowpack in the back yard...........

Try having a 13 year old with a new snowmobile. No powder in sight. The yard looks like Rangeley on Snodeo weekend. 

[Thunderblizzard]

Deep Thunder maps count sleet/ice as snow... but still 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

Try having a 13 year old with a new snowmobile. No powder in sight. The yard looks like Rangeley on Snodeo weekend. 

Lmao...ahhh I remember those days. Bought my first sled when I was 16...and I would ride it around the yard flattening every square inch of snow...my mother hated it...but I had a ball riding my machine.

[Whineminster]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can't rule it out...but this run wasn't damaging and I haven't seen one yet. The lack of QPF after the front is the inhibiting factor. If we keep trending earlier passage of the frontal boundary though then maybe we can discuss more threatening ice scenarios. The southern stream has been trending a lot weaker as it ejects northeastward...so that is lessening the QPF with it but it's also helping the frontal boundary to move in sooner.

Then again, if we keep shoving this boundary southeast quickly, then sleet might be introduced into the precip too so that would also limit the ice.

True true....sort of a double edged sword situation.  Probably will become a nowcast like all these close call icing situations. 

[DavisStraight]

41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Deep Thunder

What site do you get that model?

[weathafella]

Currier and Ives is more widespread Saturday night on gfs.  Kevin to mpm and east in New England.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ryan calling for flash freeze and an icy state on Sat. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you 'magin - we have like a region wide grid failure because of the ice storm and the Pats play anyway. 

Thd scale in degree of the local media market boning would make the outage almost tolerable. I'd love to see and read about homes down the street rendered in darkness while the generators blithely carry on the game

Yes we magin’and yes it happn’

[Organizing Low]

WSW posted by BTV.....should be a wild 24 hours starting friday evening with a flash freeze and ice to heavy snow for NW vermont (exactly my county),  but then maybe this event keeps trending weaker and SE...

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro sped up fropa as well with icing for many by dawn Saturday.. Now looks like everyone ends as burst of snow

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Moose fart. That's a healthy dumping there. I still don't see anything that exciting down here, unless you're into flash freezes. Maybe some ice Berks and nrn ORH. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I dunno.. Euro and nam both have hours of zr in central and western SNE as early as dawn ending as snow.,we’ll see how it plays out . Not a ton of ice but maybe .10 or so 

[CoastalWx]

60-64 tomorrow into Saturday? 

[mahk_webstah]

doesn't seem this system is much of anything up here except a snow melting quick thaw and heavy rain.  Maybe a frozen crust at the end.  Happens most winters.  Then back into the freezer and more snow.  Yes it does art the deep pack fantasies but we will end this with probably at least a foot of high qpf cement by Sunday and then we build towards 2 feet before the real thaw which takes us back to a foot...and then maybe we start the run towards a 3 ft snowpack.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nam leading the way again, retiring on top. 

That’s an icing event along rte 8. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s just a big ball of suck.  2” of rain.  A few pellets.  A glaze

wheee

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

doesn't seem this system is much of anything up here except a snow melting quick thaw and heavy rain.  Maybe a frozen crust at the end.  Happens most winters.  Then back into the freezer and more snow.  Yes it does art the deep pack fantasies but we will end this with probably at least a foot of high qpf cement by Sunday and then we build towards 2 feet before the real thaw which takes us back to a foot...and then maybe we start the run towards a 3 ft snowpack.

Including Saturday? Riding the GFS?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Riding the Gfs in a big CAA / precip event is akin to riding a horse naked 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is still pretty warm too. NAM is def an outlier right now. The NAM's track makes the most sense...it's not tracking the thing over interior SNE like a lot of global models are and instead pushes it SE. But still...you want to see some consensus take shape. We will see what 12z today brings. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Riding the Gfs in a big CAA / precip event is akin to riding a horse naked 

Heh, not sure with the analogy but with respect to thermal profiles at hr 60...sure..

 

It would be nice if the mesos were in range already. The Nam is ticking colder each run with surface temps so that's at least telling. And we have a good consensus track of the SLP using EPS and GEFS, which takes this over LI. So def have to hedge colder (on par with Nam) at the surface based on current guidance...

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still pretty warm too. NAM is def an outlier right now. The NAM's track makes the most sense...it's not tracking the thing over interior SNE like a lot of global models are and instead pushes it SE. But still...you want to see some consensus take shape. We will see what 12z today brings. 

EPS and GEFS look like SLP goes over LI...Admittedly still a lot of uncertainty there - not good agreement at this hr...

 

What does extended rgem show?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

EPS and GEFS look like SLP goes over LI...Admittedly still a lot of uncertainty there - not good agreement at this hr...

 

What does extended rgem show?

One big flaccid low poking into Dover, NH.

[jbenedet]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

One big flaccid low poking into Dover, NH.

Thanks. lol. Well that's one way to put it...

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I still lean colder...but there's still the aspect of qpf too. Front could get through and then we don't see a whole lot of qpf. Regardless though it does seem like it will be pretty icy late Saturday in most areas. Even if it's just a bit of freezing drizzle. Obviously doesn't take much to create some issues. 

 

[Cold Miser]

This is what we would normally expect around Christmas after a nice pre-Holiday snow or 2. 

At this point, Just let it happen. Give me my 2" of rain, and hope for the best next week.