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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

No icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires...even that is dicey.

Travel hazards will come from flash freeze.

 

I know the usual suspects are about to besiege me with various snapshots of model output, but it just isn't happening imo.

Love to be wrong-

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 Perfect. Nice assessment, gives me peace of mind to head north this weekend and not worry about power issues at my house.   Hopefully I can wake up Saturday morning to some fresh snow in North Conway.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:35 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Perfect. Nice assessment, gives me peace of mind to head north this weekend and not worry about power issues at my house.   Hopefully I can wake up Saturday morning to some fresh snow in North Conway.

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I mean, low level cold can be sneaky, so maybe I'm wrong....but 9/10 times the precip is out like a shot even faster than anticipated in relation to the frontal passage.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

No icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires...even that is dicey.

Travel hazards will come from flash freeze.

 

I know the usual suspects are about to besiege me with various snapshots of model output, but it just isn't happening imo.

Love to be wrong-

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Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:23 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not loving the track on the nam or gfs

A nw tickle from earlier tracks and precipitation heading out faster.

Cuts across SNE with cold holding out a tad longer for rte 2.

This is the trend i saw today on those 2 , no idea what UKIE,  Euro were doing but 35f (temps) in concord nh at 12z sounds like crap

So we see freezing drizzle and cold air 

Whoop

Need this to trend over s coast

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Don't do this to yourself.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

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Sell. Enjoy the flash freeze like the rest of us... we await pics of Swiss cheese pack and re frozen snowbanks at the end of the Street.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please post pics of your ice encased tree branches on Saturday PM.

Should be cool to see.

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I love when coastal folks try to tell people what their wx will be  

Assuming there is no ice within the column, colder air undercutting
quickly with favorable lift / ascent aloft prior to dry air eroding
the column, looking at a roughly 3-6 hour window of freezing rain /
drizzle over N/W interior S New England, roughly interior Essex
County MA, Worcester and Tolland Hills. There is the potential of
reaching the I-95 corridor, some uncertainty on the speed at which
colder
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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:49 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sell. Enjoy the flash freeze like the rest of us... we await pics of Swiss cheese pack and re frozen snowbanks at the end of the Street.

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He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

I think there was a snowstorm a few days after that that he was all over, too.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I love when coastal folks try to tell people what their wx will be  

Assuming there is no ice within the column, colder air undercutting
quickly with favorable lift / ascent aloft prior to dry air eroding
the column, looking at a roughly 3-6 hour window of freezing rain /
drizzle over N/W interior S New England, roughly interior Essex
County MA, Worcester and Tolland Hills. There is the potential of
reaching the I-95 corridor, some uncertainty on the speed at which
colder
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I don't think anyone is doubting a period of freezing drizzle to conclude the event.

Very slippery, but there should not be much accretion.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 10:52 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

I think there was a snowstorm a few days after that that he was all over, too.

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Will  we continue to hear about your outlook and you talking about yourself and that’s what your forecast did or didn’t have?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

This seems like one of those setups where the surface cold easily pours into WNE/VT and then it briefly gets hung up west of the mtns until it oozes through the valleys or mixes down as 850/925 cools. So it looks much more impressive for PF and Mitch than us easterners (albeit still impressive overall). It was cool to see the 2m progression with this on the Swiss run I saw earlier.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 11:32 PM, dendrite said:

This seems like one of those setups where the surface cold easily pours into WNE/VT and then it briefly gets hung up west of the mtns until it oozes through the valleys or mixes down as 850/925 cools. So it looks much more impressive for PF and Mitch than us easterners (albeit still impressive overall). It was cool to see the 2m progression with this on the Swiss run I saw earlier.

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Seconded.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 11:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve always had zr pre daybreak to sleet ending as snow. Everything points to that. No damage .. just a winters fat Saturday for our area 

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It would be a neat trick to get much snow when the column dries out so fast. Better luck keeping hours of freezing drizzle than accumulating snow.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 11:51 PM, snowgeek said:

Should be pretty interesting here in the Hudson Valley. Low level cold usually moves in pretty quick here in these types of setups.


.

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Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 11:58 PM, qg_omega said:

Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

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3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2018 at 11:58 PM, qg_omega said:

Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

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Dude, your idea of interesting must be pretty narrow.  I'm expecting 50's tomorrow afternoon and then 20's when I wake up Saturday morning.  I'm expecting a little freezing rain followed by a decent period of sleet and then maybe an inch of snow as the temps plummet and everything freezes solid.  Sure I'd prefer a foot of snow, but to me it definitely looks interesting.  It's always fun to see low level cold ooze in as mid levels still torch.  Enjoy the storm.....it's the only storm you got.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

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Sounds wintry to me.  Sleet and temps nose diving = wintry to me.  Tough audience.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

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Yes the temp drop is nice and all but sensible weather is two hours of IP with a coating

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 12:06 AM, snowgeek said:

Dude, your idea of interesting must be pretty narrow.  I'm expecting 50's tomorrow afternoon and then 20's when I wake up Saturday morning.  I'm expecting a little freezing rain followed by a decent period of sleet and then maybe an inch of snow as the temps plummet and everything freezes solid.  Sure I'd prefer a foot of snow, but to me it definitely looks interesting.  It's always fun to see low level cold ooze in as mid levels still torch.  Enjoy the storm.....it's the only storm you got.

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I'm expecting my 15 inches of snow on the ground to melt, first time seeing grass since November, the temp drop doesn't do much for me unless we had the precip, which we don't. I'm pretty depressed about it this will take a good week to recover at the mountains

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

Expand  

Just realized it was the 3km NAM I was looking at and not the Swiss. Looks cool with the low level cold pouring around the Presidentials leaving IZG/N Conway briefly in a warm bubble.

7BC4D7CB-FDF9-415C-AEBF-1E37D7589162.png

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