January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Looks like some currier stuff for maybe a couple of days prior to any Miller B?

[wxeyeNH]

Not really for this thread but the Miller B really gets going and gives much of New England 5-10"

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Pope took a lot to church

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Hi

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there anyone here who honestly think these trends don’t continue with faster fropa each run? Cold dense air loves to push in quicker . You couid just see this several days ago 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there anyone here who honestly think these trends don’t continue with faster fropa each run? Cold dense air loves to push in quicker . You couid just see this several days ago 

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I don’t seee a big deal south of the pike right now. Brown ground tracking a glaze? Stakes higher rt 2 north. This has only so much room to go south and get the QPF.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t seee a big deal south of the pike right now. Brown ground tracking a glaze? Stakes higher rt 2 north. This has only so much room to go south and get the QPF.

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Even CNE doesnt look to have a TON of QPF that is frozen...most guidance is under an inch...some of that is prob pellets too in the latter stages...and even a little snow. So the ZR threat looks to be mostly nuisance variety. I suppose there is still the outside chance someone gets a third of an inch of ice which may start to cause some problems...but its mostly going to be below a quarter inch of accretion. The fast movement of the cold air prob helps mitigate the ice...it goes to pellets and/or snow during the event...and yeah, down in SNE when the cold undercuts the warm aloft, out qpf is fairl minimal at that stage. We may get an inch of rain in the warm sector though....we'll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t seee a big deal south of the pike right now. Brown ground tracking a glaze? Stakes higher rt 2 north. This has only so much room to go south and get the QPF.

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Brown ground? Lol

[kdxken]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Even CNE doesnt look to have a TON of QPF that is frozen...most guidance is under an inch...some of that is prob pellets too in the latter stages...and even a little snow. So the ZR threat looks to be mostly nuisance variety. I suppose there is still the outside chance someone gets a third of an inch of ice which may start to cause some problems...but its mostly going to be below a quarter inch of accretion. The fast movement of the cold air prob helps mitigate the ice...it goes to pellets and/or snow during the event...and yeah, down in SNE when the cold undercuts the warm aloft, out qpf is fairl minimal at that stage. We may get an inch of rain in the warm sector though....we'll see.

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An inch is better than the four some models were spitting out . 

[JKEisMan]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Brown ground? Lol

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Yeah I think the hills hang on to some snow, maybe not the cp 

[dendrite]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Brown ground? Lol

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Here's what your cold NAM has for dews Friday. Enjoy the swampazz.

[ORH_wxman]

There may be some snow left...but it's gonna take a beating friday and friday night...won't be surprised if it's all gone by sat morning outside of piles and a few patches. We'll see how quickly the meat of the warm sector works in...and also how much 54F rain falls....the warm rain will melt it very fast. If friday stays mostly dry then there could be some snow left.

[Ginx snewx]

Vanquished, seen this play before

[Ginx snewx]

but we nuke on the follow up and thats not that uncommon, good times

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:39 PM, JKEisMan said:

Yeah I think the hills hang on to some snow, maybe not the cp 

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I expect it to mostly be gone but with the cold front thru near or prior to midnite and icing by morning.. we may be able to salvage a bit . But 95% will be gone 

[kdxken]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:41 PM, dendrite said:

Here's what your cold NAM has for dews Friday. Enjoy the swampazz.

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Them's  snow eaters.

[ice1972]

After the  Boxing Day disaster when did that first event show up in January 2011?  We have time to build the pack back up but this melt is just such a bummer.......the pack had such great potential.....it was a good start and then will be wiped clean......I only ask about 2011 because once that first event came it was like non stop for a month and my pack grew to like 30" I think.....the areas where the snow drifted or where I threw snow shoveling got even higher to the point where the neighbor dog could walk over the top of the side yard fence or where my kid could walk up to the railing of the deck from the yard side.....lolz.....

[Cold Miser]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:43 PM, Ginx snewx said:

but we nuke on the follow up and thats not that uncommon, good times

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Hopefully more cold and a chance of getting .0000001 of freezing rain on a few branches Friday into Saturday doesn't negatively affect the one next week.  I would rather have **** ton of rain if it meant a good hit mid-week.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:52 PM, ice1972 said:

After the  Boxing Day disaster when did that first event show up in January 2011?  We have time to build the pack back up but this melt is just such a bummer.......the pack had such great potential.....it was a good start and then will be wiped clean......I only ask about 2011 because once that first event came it was like non stop for a month and my pack grew to like 30" I think.....the areas where the snow drifted or where I threw snow shoveling got even higher to the point where the neighbor dog could walk over the top of the side yard fence or where my kid could walk up to the railing of the deck from the yard side.....lolz.....

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Jan 7-8 in 2011 was the first event.

But forget 2011...lol...2015 had bare ground on January 23rd.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I expect it to mostly be gone but with the cold front thru near or prior to midnite and icing by morning.. we may be able to salvage a bit . But 95% will be gone 

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So brown.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:42 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Vanquished, seen this play before

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It’s gone except for a few staring at a protected area 20’X20’. 

[qg_omega]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Brown ground? Lol

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Yes

[Lava Rock]

  On 1/10/2018 at 10:03 PM, dryslot said:

Scott and his wife out for a ride after the storm.

Carson riding the Euro. 1.3" for northern ME.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

  On 1/10/2018 at 11:08 PM, Lava Rock said:

Carson riding the Euro. 1.3" for northern ME.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

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Keith always rides the Euro.

[ice1972]

  On 1/10/2018 at 11:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 7-8 in 2011 was the first event.

But forget 2011...lol...2015 had bare ground on January 23rd.

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I don't recall 2014-15 being so spectacular......I remember that winter was cold and our pond froze up early and lasted a while.....at least 2.5 feet thick at one point.....the next two winters the pond never got thick enough.....it is certainly thick enough now though......was 2014-15 the year Boston got blasted with relentless snow?  I was so jealous......also that Jan 2015 Blizzard was meh.....Ginx did good in that storm......

[powderfreak]

  On 1/10/2018 at 11:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 7-8 in 2011 was the first event.

But forget 2011...lol...2015 had bare ground on January 23rd.

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That's crazy to think about...given what happened just after that. 

Bare ground towards the end of January is enough to get anyone a bit down....then BAM holy fukkin' sh*t (only way to describe it).

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Does Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor CAD for a bit on Friday before we torch?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/10/2018 at 11:22 PM, ice1972 said:

I don't recall 2014-15 being so spectacular......I remember that winter was cold and our pond froze up early and lasted a while.....at least 2.5 feet thick at one point.....the next two winters the pond never got thick enough.....it is certainly thick enough now though......was 2014-15 the year Boston got blasted with relentless snow?  I was so jealous......also that Jan 2015 Blizzard was meh.....Ginx did good in that storm......

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I was pissed I missed 30 by a half inch, not really just channeling my inner Ray Ray

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/11/2018 at 12:00 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Does Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor CAD for a bit on Friday before we torch?

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Prob....since its southerly flow...it always take a little longer to scour out there on S flow. But everyone will warm sector eventually and be there for quite a while.

But your area will be the first to cool off in SNE as this drains back in from the N and NW...not a cold tuck this time in the east. It just all seeps S and SSE and prob everyone is frozen over by sat afternoon/sat evening

[ice1972]

  On 1/11/2018 at 12:02 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I was pissed I missed 30 by a half inch, not really just channeling my inner Ray Ray

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Oh man....I mean at that depth you are approaching the margin of error if you have to slant stick that additional 0.5"......lol.....its still a decent slant at 10.5 degrees but we've seen worse.....lol

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/10/2018 at 11:22 PM, ice1972 said:

I don't recall 2014-15 being so spectacular......I remember that winter was cold and our pond froze up early and lasted a while.....at least 2.5 feet thick at one point.....the next two winters the pond never got thick enough.....it is certainly thick enough now though......was 2014-15 the year Boston got blasted with relentless snow?  I was so jealous......also that Jan 2015 Blizzard was meh.....Ginx did good in that storm......

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The snow was deeper and deeper the more east you went, I had a decent pack but nothing like the Boston area. I hope to see another month like that in my lifetime with the wealth spread more west next time.