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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion


ORH_wxman

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The wave heading into Quebec Friday, which will partly be responsible for all the warmth through Friday seems to be trending stronger on all guidance. It's a catch-22 of sorts - warmth likely outperforms tomorrow and Friday, BUT the deeper this wave gets, the more UL height falls (surface canadian HP) we get on the backside, out ahead of our developing winter storm... 

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  On 1/10/2018 at 8:58 PM, dryslot said:

Provided the Nam is right.................:lol:

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I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

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  On 1/10/2018 at 9:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

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Those are the keys right here that you mention, Thats what we have been wanting to see happen to at least head off the flooding rains for some areas, Keep both separate, And it seems that qpf is getting cut back as well in some areas.

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  On 1/10/2018 at 9:03 PM, wx2fish said:

Euro would put down a pretty good strip on the backside too from N VT through Jackman to Caribou 

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That is something we want to see, Some decent back end snows, Seems like all the model runs today are keeping the second wave weaker with less of a phase an tracking further east allowing the colder air to filter in as the pv is asserting itself more as we get closer in.

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  On 1/10/2018 at 9:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

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Yeah I like a southerly solution too. 

I think a flash freeze south of the Pike is more likely than an "ice storm".

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  On 1/10/2018 at 9:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to lean toward the colder solutions again...for the torch solutions, by now I would have wanted to see most of the guidance riding this into SYR/MSS or thereabouts. We've seen these ambiguous tracks over ALB and then to PWM....now we're starting to see it get squashed to SE MA and even SE of SNE on a few runs now.

 

Obviously it could still trend back amped...but usually this goes the other way with that type of ridiculous sfc cold and the two streams not wanting to phase.

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It's like we were talking about the other day... they either go up towards MSS or head towards the ocean.  But the BGM-ALB-CON track is an outlier.

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  On 1/10/2018 at 9:16 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah I like a southerly solution too. 

I think a flash freeze south of the Pike is more likely than an "ice storm".

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Could be really nasty Sat evening...looks like a lot of moisture is hanging back so wouldn't be surprised at freezing drizzle...maybe eventually a light snow dusting to top it off...but def not ideal for driving on untreated roads.

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  On 1/10/2018 at 10:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Could be really nasty Sat evening...looks like a lot of moisture is hanging back so wouldn't be surprised at freezing drizzle...maybe eventually a light snow dusting to top it off...but def not ideal for driving on untreated roads.

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Rain will wash all the salt away too. 

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Lack of QPF is really the inhibiting factor in the big ice scenario....the southern stream has weakened...so we're not seeing a lot of QPF fall as frozen on the cold side. It's generally under an inch. Maybe that changes, but it's mostly below the threshold of damaging ice IMHO.

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