ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not a bad look on the HRRR for the timeframe for SLP placement and strength. Well defined TROWAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Interesting write up by FFC regarding the storms effects on North GA. I know its not our area, but I like reading all the regional NWS discussions for any inclinations and views. Quote As the system departs...colder air will move in behind the system. Guidance indicates this maybe moving in a little faster than original thinking. In addition...seeing better moisture extend further south...likely being somewhat enhanced by next approaching shortwave energy along with left exit region and southward progressing jet streak behind the front. Nonetheless...with a noticeable frontal inversion seen in sounding data up towards Chattanooga...think a brief sleet/snow mix may occur from west to east across the far northern mountain counties from ~23z-02z before the much colder air moves in. After ~02z will likely still see lingering snow showers across the far north and system wrap-around moisture continues to pull north/northeast. Could even see snow flurries all the way down towards Carrollton and Atlanta (altho no accumulation or impacts are expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18Z NAM must be correct. The entire forum has measurable winter weather except Hamilton County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 18Z NAM must be correct. The entire forum has measurable winter weather except Hamilton County. When you look at the adjust maps to remove ice, no one get's more than an inch on the 18z NAM and those areas are few and far between. It may not apply as much out west, but JKL explained why the NAM was wrong with p-type earlier today for their region at least. It says it's too aggressive low level cold air and that very little freezing rain would occur in their area, that it would be snow/sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: When you look at the adjust maps to remove ice, no one get's more than an inch on the 18z NAM and those areas are few and far between. It may not apply as much out west, but JKL explained why the NAM was wrong with p-type earlier today for their region at least. It says it's too aggressive low level cold air and that very little freezing rain would occur in their area, that it would be snow/sleet or rain. Yeah I really just posted it because of the Chattanooga snow dome. Worked in Chatty for years and saw it over and over I would head home there would be snow and nothing at all in Chatt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 My thoughts now are basically Nashville west, north of 40, 1-3 inches of snow, .25 ice with some sleet too. East of Nash to Crossville, 1 inch of snow, minor ice. East of the plateau, less than 1 inch of snow to no accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah I really just posted it because of the Chattanooga snow dome. Worked in Chatty for years and saw it over and over I would head home there would be snow and nothing at all in Chatt. you are correct sir lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: My thoughts now are basically Nashville west, north of 40, 1-3 inches of snow, .25 ice with some sleet too. East of Nash to Crossville, 1 inch of snow, minor ice. East of the plateau, less than 1 inch of snow to no accumulations. MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I do think this will be a fun one to watch even being in East TN with not much to get out of it, also sometimes these events hold surprises and those are fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I've lived here since 2001 and had to slowly learn to accept it. At first I thought surely that cannot be right but over the years I have learned the mountains around us and everything else seem to work against us most of the time. Best snows were Jan 2011, and February 2015... or maybe it was 14 I cant remember lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Runman292 said: MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system. Yep another hose job for the valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 152 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 ...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING... ...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... .For the northwestern counties of Middle Tennessee, a system will move in Friday morning bringing rain that will transition shortly before sunrise to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then to all snow by the mid morning hours, with snow lasting into Friday evening. Ice accumulations from one tenth to three tenths of an inch are expected, with snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. For areas generally along and east of I-65 and all counties along the Tennessee/Alabama state line, precipitation will change to a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then to snow from late morning through the afternoon. Light snow will continue into Friday night. Ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch will be possible, and snow accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible. Travel conditions are expected to be hazardous Friday morning into Friday night across all of Middle Tennessee. I'm under a winter storm warning in west TN too. Daytime events are always fun so I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 All three for Chattanooga snow. Jan 2011 shut down schools for a week. Feb 2014 was the bowling ball from North Alabama. Feb 2015 was more of a slider, again from Alabama. Don't forget the white Christmas in 2010! It does snow here, but it is a downhill battle with downslope 7/8 directions. Back to current events. I like East Kentucky 1-3 inches of snow. I like it so much I'd forecast it for the Tri Cities, Tenn. Oh Nashville your WSW is not friendly to utilities. NAM/Euro soundings are a lot of ice. GFS has a steeper front, more sleet. Well, GFS got December 8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS looking similar to the NAM now. Good run across 2/3 of the state. West of Clarksville might Get clobbered good too. Nice look for Flash, Jax and the rest if the nashville crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 57 minutes ago, Runman292 said: MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system. So, are they going with the NAM?? Hard to tell from my take on it. HWO doesn't really say much either. Stronger synoptic forcing in association with the upper jet and approaching trough arrives Friday morning. Models depict a convective band in the frontogenetic zone entering our area from the west around 14Z. There is also some elevated instability with this line, so a slight chance of thunderstorms will be mentioned with it. Timing of this convection takes it to our eastern border around 21Z. At that time, we will have strong cold advection building into our western sections behind the cold front, and a window of mixed p- types may occur across the Cumberland Plateau before 00Z. Partial thickness nomograms from the NAM soundings indicate a quick transition from rain to predominantly sleet to snow. The GFS has a less prominent warm nose than the NAM, and transitions from rain to snow. Neither model supports more than a brief period of freezing rain potential in the Plateau as the NAM`s above- freezing warm nose fades quickly as surface temps drop to near freezing, so ice accumulation is not a concern. In the 20-00Z time frame, will mention a sleet/rain/snow transition across the Plateau counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS is probably the best case for most of us regarding snowfall. The RGEM is centered more north/east but very good for northern Middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Kasper said: Yep another hose job for the valley! This one has always been a reach in the East....some trends very slightly NW w the late meso scale models this evening. The EPS still likes the slp to make it mostly around the base of the souther Apps and into western NC. For snow in the eastern Valley, we want it as far over there as we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 At this point, I'll be thrilled if I can get an inch out of it and thrilled if I can get an inch next week. That would more than triple my total for the winter so far and have me getting close to last years record worst snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I really think this storm is gonna be more of a NOWCASTING event. Theres potential for over achieving across the state IMO. Roads could get treacherous too since no preparation has been put into the roads due to the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I give props to NWS memphis for putting out the WS watch yesterday afternoon when they did. They've done a great job trying to get people alerted rather than wait to try and save face with a uncertain forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: I really think this storm is gonna be more of a NOWCASTING event. Theres potential for over achieving across the state IMO. Roads could get treacherous too since no preparation has been put into the roads due to the rain. I agree. I’m in White House Tennessee and I feel pretty good about this event. For some reason I feel this is going to be my first overachiever since I’ve lived here. Of course it could underachieve like many storms have over the years. That’s the beauty of snow storms in the south though. You never truly know what you’re going to get until it has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Olhausen said: I agree. I’m in White House Tennessee and I feel pretty good about this event. For some reason I feel this is going to be my first overachiever since I’ve lived here. Of course it could underachieve like many storms have over the years. That’s the beauty of snow storms in the south though. You never truly know what you’re going to get until it has fallen. Just down the road in Cottontown. SlFingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 At this point, I'll be thrilled if I can get an inch out of it and thrilled if I can get an inch next week. That would more than triple my total for the winter so far and have me getting close to last years record worst snow total.I think you can easily squeeze 1-3 inches out of this event because you are further northwest and your temps will crash quicker than those locations in the valley. You are really close for a much bigger event if the TROWAL were to hang on longer than expected. I still think NETN isn’t out of the game yet for a 1-2 inch snowfall. All it takes is for the low to take a track up the east spine of the Apps instead of the west side. If the HRRR is to be believed Memphis will have heavy snow falling in the morning on top of a solid layer of freezing rain. Travel will be almost impossible in West TN in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 0z NAM holds with heavy freezing rain/sleet to some snow Nashville west. Very little for anyone east of Cookeville or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 From my very limited knowledge is that the comma head beginning to form in Northeastern Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Good luck to y’all! I’m pulling for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The cold front is approaching the Mississippi river. You guys out West, be safe and good luck. You should be in full winter storm mode by 3 or 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Cheers to our western folks that are about to get TROWAL'D! Hunker down and stay off the roads for gods sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro was good for west Tennessee and far NE TN that run. Set a nice band up there and got JC to 2 inches. Weakens/dry slots areas between Knox and Crossville north into SE KY. 1 inch or less in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Temp falling like a rock as front pushed thru Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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