Kasper Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I’ll just be over here the next few days, oh the agony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Looks like the German model (Icon) has been added to Tropical Tidbits. 0z and 12z to hour 180, 6z and 12z to hour 120..... just another tool for the tool belt. It's much different than other modeling for late week/weekend. It can be useful, but I'd probably toss 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z nam is amped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Well...that was interesting. The 0z NAM was glorious. I am a fan of the jump to the Piedmont. It can happen. Not sure if right...but that is some model wildness right there. The NAM at range pushes the laws of physics to the very edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Lol...NAM says just split the low around the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Looks like most recent models go east to what effect for middle Tn - better or worst? I would think better unless the system is to weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z NAM 12km Hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 You have to feel pretty great sitting between jackson and nashville. If there is a trend to the east then your still cashing in...that 0z nam would have me storm chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The NAM would basically be the all time winter event for the western half of Middle TN. It drops over an inch of freezing rain and 10+ inches of snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 If only half it would shut down the whole area for a week or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS was just relative weaker and slightly east.It doesn't pull in the CAA and now shows more ice.Weaker system also cut into the QPFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hell I wish I could chase this one. I was born and raised in Paris. It would be an excuse to visit my folks! I need some new truck tires though (or possibly chains!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Apparently I had reverse psychology working when I saw East Tennessee was out. Euro hammers the western areas with freezing rain/sleet and the East with snow that run. 2-4 Nashville and Knoxville, 6-8 Crossville, Cookeville and my area. 10+ in SE Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro ends up here on that run. At this rate it'll be dumping on the Western Carolinas by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Apparently I had reverse psychology working when I saw East Tennessee was out. Euro hammers the western areas with freezing rain/sleet and the East with snow that run. 2-4 Nashville and Knoxville, 6-8 Crossville, Cookeville and my area. 10+ in SE Kentucky. Reminds me of the 2016 storm on the 22-23 of Jan.Models showed a few days before the western areas were going to get hammered and the air was to warm for us,the models only showed a little sleet and snow but mostly rain then Memphis got shut out and we got in some places over a foot.I feel for Memphis though if this happens and they get the shaft again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Euro ends up here on that run. At this rate it'll be dumping on the Western Carolinas by tomorrow. Can we please lock it in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro control has the same general snow area as the op but less heavy. The Ensembles had their best run yet, 49 of 50 members showed at least part of the forum area getting 2+ inches with many individual members showing similar results to the op across different parts of the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 lol..can we lock in that run for the whole state thru next Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 06z Nam through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The NAM took a little different track at 06 vs 00. Especially late in the run. Snow/frozen area remained west but also expanded some east. It is probably way over juiced, it's showing 1.3 inches of freezing rain below that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The temp gradient is amazing. 30s to near 60 over about a 30 mine span. At one point the NAM has me at 35 and the SE edge of my county at 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Much more realistic amounts, I'd take this all day. I just don't want too get shut out on this storm. Model trends are worrying me a little hit this morning. If I can cash out on a good snow in the next few days then I would call it a good winter honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro folded to the gfs with the more eastern track. Question is how much farther east will this storm trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Much more realistic amounts, I'd take this all day. I just don't want too get shut out on this storm. Model trends are worrying me a little hit this morning. If I can cash out on a good snow in the next few days then I would call it a good winter honestly. On a related note, why do we always have a discussion each year on the GFS. The last three runs have been all over the place. Why cant this be addressed? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 hours ago, John1122 said: Euro ends up here on that run. At this rate it'll be dumping on the Western Carolinas by tomorrow. The trough would have to dig more over the miss valley. Seems very unlikely. This might be more of a central Tenn storm than western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The trough would have to dig more over the miss valley. Seems very unlikely. This might be more of a central Tenn storm than western. I do not have an issue driving in the snow, it is the layer of ice that could be under that couple of inches that is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The CMC looks to be in between the Euro and GFS solution with the cutoff strength. Low tracks up from Alabama west of Chattanooga. Still showing a western Tennessee hit but not as strong as the Euro, nor quiet as weak as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 24-Hour Probability of Snow Accumulating ≥ 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro seems to be caving to the GFS and it's weaker, less snowy solution, freezing rain will be the predominant p-type in western areas, with 1-2 inches of snow at the very best on top of some ice. Basically a bad run for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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