AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 At minimum we see 15-17 named storms this season. potential energy left over from last season etc. On the data it's not even close... like a +0.350 AMO and no other January was greater than +0.200 (many negative years though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The raw Atlantic SSTs imply 1952 was probably the equivalent of this year in the Atlantic, once you factor in that its a bit warmer globally. Dec 1952 was 20.418C in the Atlantic, Dec 2017 was 20.620C. The 1952 number is the warmest December figure in the previous warm AMO era, and consistent with the AMO being a three / six solar-cycle (33/66 year) cycle, i.e. 1895-1927 = cold, 1928-1962 = warm, 1963-1994 = cold, 1995-?? is warm. Should note, Dec 1944 was 20.348C too - pretty impressive. Dec 2016 was 20.588C, Dec 2017 2017 was 20.620C. The long-term rate of warming in December (1856-2017) implies 2017 is 1952+65 years warming. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here is a wider view What's interesting is, what do SSTs do if there is no La Nina in the Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Correlations between Dec & MAM strongly imply Nino 3.4 will warm in MAM, but its less certain in Nino 1.2. Some kind of East-based cold-neutral look is my guess for Spring. My assumption is Nino 1.2 misses low v. the correlation given subsurface there for MAM, and Nino 3.4 v. the correlation given the subsurface there. This is what I got from weighting 13 scenarios based on existing conditions and the subsurface for Spring - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 There's nothing really special about the AMO. It's even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 Winter pattern, anomalies +30% of average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Atlantic/AMO did cool off a lot in January (+0.173C), not warmest on record now. Comparable/behind 2004, 2007, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017. Couple years in the prior AMO+ cycle (particularly 1944) are very close to January 2018 in raw SSTs. February looks a lot colder than January too. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data 2004 19.528 19.082 19.009 19.382 20.146 21.537 22.816 23.632 23.447 22.659 21.542 20.407 2005 19.431 19.001 19.138 19.569 20.437 21.689 23.038 23.758 23.628 22.657 21.464 20.439 2006 19.447 18.953 18.917 19.477 20.455 21.698 22.969 23.722 23.576 22.756 21.616 20.397 2007 19.497 19.098 18.987 19.441 20.261 21.456 22.726 23.379 23.313 22.583 21.506 20.340 2008 19.359 19.012 19.021 19.328 20.324 21.627 22.806 23.502 23.417 22.530 21.334 20.250 2009 19.273 18.723 18.705 19.157 20.094 21.495 22.831 23.482 23.278 22.595 21.405 20.317 2010 19.374 19.067 19.155 19.716 20.617 21.824 23.056 23.858 23.673 22.757 21.574 20.445 2011 19.481 19.000 18.926 19.385 20.312 21.557 22.700 23.482 23.371 22.499 21.270 20.195 2012 19.275 18.899 18.899 19.376 20.327 21.682 22.986 23.769 23.677 22.768 21.509 20.384 2013 19.471 19.013 19.034 19.435 20.267 21.431 22.804 23.535 23.487 22.789 21.475 20.282 2014 19.283 18.858 18.798 19.208 20.167 21.450 22.838 23.678 23.545 22.736 21.414 20.307 2015 19.340 18.899 18.753 19.233 20.216 21.419 22.751 23.524 23.537 22.772 21.538 20.480 2016 19.582 19.061 19.073 19.484 20.518 21.802 23.054 23.805 23.698 22.830 21.745 20.588 2017 19.579 19.135 19.055 19.593 20.491 21.704 22.927 23.661 23.593 22.886 21.709 20.620 2018 19.529 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Thanks, the whole Hemisphere has cooled off pretty significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 1/8/2018 at 9:58 PM, raindancewx said: The raw Atlantic SSTs imply 1952 was probably the equivalent of this year in the Atlantic, once you factor in that its a bit warmer globally. Dec 1952 was 20.418C in the Atlantic, Dec 2017 was 20.620C. The 1952 number is the warmest December figure in the previous warm AMO era, and consistent with the AMO being a three / six solar-cycle (33/66 year) cycle, i.e. 1895-1927 = cold, 1928-1962 = warm, 1963-1994 = cold, 1995-?? is warm. Should note, Dec 1944 was 20.348C too - pretty impressive. Dec 2016 was 20.588C, Dec 2017 2017 was 20.620C. The long-term rate of warming in December (1856-2017) implies 2017 is 1952+65 years warming. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data Is the length of the AMO cycle variable? What governs its length? Also note a sign of the 11 year solar cycle is how we get torch summers every 11 years or so- 1933, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, 2010...... next one should be 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Its broadly governed by salinity and where denser waters will/won't surface, but the sun and volcanoes seem to have some influence too. Its interesting that Calbuco, Mayon and Agung are all waking up lately, and have coincided with switches from the warm to the cold AMO phase in the 1890s/1960s. Switch is coming sometime around 2024-2030 I think. My hunch is that the small differences in solar energy mean more for sea ice extent, and volcanoes mean more for changes for total energy in the tropics. So when you blend them together...and the effect lasts for a couple years, the entire ocean cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Whatever natural variability signal is there will be blunted (or enhanced?) by AGW especially if it holds off for another decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The AMO doesn't seem like a good candidate to make that argument. Where do you think all that cold ice water is going when it is melting? It seems like when the natural -AMO comes, but you still have a lot of melt in the Arctic you'd have a pretty cold AMO cycle. The other issue is, the 1980s/1990s had certainly a warmer Earth than the 1950s right? But the AMO, to use January was never above 19.2C in January from 1964-1994. It was almost every year from 1928-1963. The natural cycles just mean x region of the Earth is going to be cold or warm relative to the rest of the Earth for a while. The Earth warming doesn't change that since you have chaotic imbalances in the natural cycles, but a linear warming signal (i.e. its not chaotic). The AMO is also more closely correlated to solar cycles than the IOD/PDO from what I've seen in doing statistical tests, might be why "solar minimum" effects seem to focus on the N. Hemisphere in areas where the AMO has the most dominance as a factor in local weather. It seems like, since we may have a grand solar minimum and are due for a major volcanic eruption in the tropics, that those features would preserve the natural flip of the cycle pretty well. Personally, since its been nearly 30-years since a major volcanic eruption in the tropics, I think we're due for 2-3 in a short period of time, whether that's in 10 years, 20 years or 50, who knows? But the models don't know either, and its why its sort of hard to take them seriously except for the signal that some level of warming will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 So the NTA is neutral to negative right now, a lot because of March's Atlantic pattern change and -NAO. There is a really strong correlation to Spring North Atlantic Tripole (NTA) and Hurricane season activity. For example, 2010,2005, 1998, 1995, 1969, were all very +NTA. This year is opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 this year is going to suck. strap in for a clunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 19 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: this year is going to suck. strap in for a clunker. I would go for 12 named storms as the over/under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 On 4/20/2018 at 5:19 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I would go for 12 named storms as the over/under Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 24, 2018 Author Share Posted April 24, 2018 Quite a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Can forget late season canes, maybe early season will be the best shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Author Share Posted May 13, 2018 Just having fun today... favors El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 Analogs to 5-18-18 TNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 This might be the coldest May AMO since 1995 in an anomaly sense - definitely the coldest the Atlantic has looked in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 The Gulf stream is north.. that's about it. It will be a slower season, even though SSTs will quickly return to average or slightly above. Not much evidence of the +NAO persisting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 1, 2018 Author Share Posted June 1, 2018 You can pretty guess AMO will be up to positive by hurricane season. Some analogs: 2009, 2004, 1996, 1976, 1975, 1958 (It's an OLR point, Pacific-Atlantic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 AMO came in at... -0.000 for May. Similar to 2009 & 2014. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 AMO has cratered since January. The MDR is currently at record cold levels, but an incoming trade slowdown could help the MDR recover nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 I'm always impressed by how the globe see-saw's, which seems human. (How many drops of water are in the ocean etc..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Precipitable water was way above average (2017, 2010) Also every year 1948-1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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