OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Your event up there is tied to this first wave coming onshore. The event further east and south will be tied to a different secondary wave rounding the base of the trough late this week Thanks for the clarification, wasn't actually sure how to lump the event up here into the main storm in the OV since the energy from my first wave does seem to get somewhat absorbed into the 2nd low coming north. Always appreciate the correction, still learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Couple of things that come to mind which may be under-modelled currently. Mesoscale models should have a somewhat better grasp. 1) With a very strong CCB, a potent dryslot will be present which may further enhance the gradient along the NW side of the low. Most relevant if the further west/more amped tracks occur. 2) Potential for LES on the backside of the low as wind shifts to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said: Thanks for the clarification, wasn't actually sure how to lump the event up here into the main storm in the OV since the energy from my first wave does seem to get somewhat absorbed into the 2nd low coming north. Always appreciate the correction, still learning. No problem at all! You def got a nice snowstorm coming! Praying this 2nd wave keeps coming NW. This is the big bubba I been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Does the nam have a wheelhouse ?The gfs has been outperforming the euro at least on east coast. In this winter...id go with the more progressive east and lesser amp solution. Check out navgem lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Majority of models show a TROWAL moving from the Mid-South toward Indiana, and continuing northeast - track subject to change. In contrast to typical comma heads, a true TROWAL can produce robust snowfall rates in line with other strong WAA regimes. TROWALs are mesoscale features, so models will bounce around a bit. If a TROWAL verifies, good luck getting under it and enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 EPS tracks it from Central/Eastern Kentucky to north of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This will end up tracking east not west. Don't buy the euroSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: This will end up tracking east not west. Don't buy the euro Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk What makes you say That? Climo and the NWS beg to differ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 KBUFs thoughts: There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track. Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix would last much longer Friday night into Saturday. QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a common solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This thread shows me how different I am than some of you guys. I have seen several posts about being happy just to have something to track. I have thoroughly enjoyed this winter. But tracking this storm is just stressful. I get no enjoyment out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs has been outperforming the euro at least on east coast. In this winter...id go with the more progressive east and lesser amp solution. Check out navgem lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I do not keep track of model verification or anything, but a few of our snowfalls this winter the euro schooled the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, michsnowfreak said: This thread shows me how different I am than some of you guys. I have seen several posts about being happy just to have something to track. I have thoroughly enjoyed this winter. But tracking this storm is just stressful. I get no enjoyment out of it True, but there’s nothing better than when things start trending your way haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This thread shows me how different I am than some of you guys. I have seen several posts about being happy just to have something to track. I have thoroughly enjoyed this winter. But tracking this storm is just stressful. I get no enjoyment out of it Tracking is the best part IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: What makes you say That? Climo and the NWS beg to differ Agree. "FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED IN THEIR CAMPS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH GFS QUICKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW AND EC/GEM/UKMET ALL LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER/STRONGER AND FURTHER NW SOLUTION. INTERESTING NOTE ON 700 MB LOW ON THE GFS IS DEPICTED MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN SFC REFLECTION (OVER E OHIO SAT AM). SUSPECT WITH TIME THE GFS WILL COME INTO LINE WITH OTHER MODELS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I am in Western KY. The lower part of the Ohio Valley (Right under the Ohio River).... are local meteorologist are getting on board with a significant snow storm but it looks like its going to hit more eastern KY. What are yalls thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This will end up tracking east not west. Don't buy the euroSent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkWho's JI?Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 NAM is coming in a bump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nice negative tilt @84 hours on the Nam. Looks well defined and moisture laden as well. Its definitely SE of the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 zr thread remains on the models. Honestly, how real is this threat for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam is less phased, actually kind of cuts off which keeps it from shooting north....at least. Ultimately what us easterners have to root for is more of that....otherwise that trough goes negative tilt and the low drives right up into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: This will end up tracking east not west. Don't buy the euro Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: Nam is less phased, actually kind of cuts off which keeps it from shooting north....at least. Ultimately what us easterners have to root for is more of that....otherwise that trough goes negative tilt and the low drives right up into OH. It looks like it is about to aim due north in the hours after that...or starting to lean in that direction for future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 As much as I think Chicago is kind of out of this (and I wouldn't feel too bad given how many more storms they've had than us Ontario/Ohio folks), I have seen this happen many times when once there's sampling, bullseye is right over Chicago/SEMI and it's sadness for us eastern posters who were teased with the goodies in the med/long range... but it sure feels good to be sandwiched in the middle of the GFS/Euro solutions right now. It has been a long time since there's been a proper Apps runner, which is probably why I'm so skeptical... cautiously optimistic at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 You know there is a storm coming when JI stops in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, blackrock said: You know there is a storm coming when JI stops in... psyops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 "Who is Ji?" Ji is a legendary Mid Atlantic poster. Known for being as pessimistic as anyone who ever trolled a weatherboard. Over the years....his infamous declaration that "WINTER IS OVER" is one of legends. Often parodied...never duplicated. We should be honored such royalty stopped by these parts. LOL!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, blackrock said: It looks like it is about to aim due north in the hours after that...or starting to lean in that direction for future model runs. it definitely would sling shot north a bit more but would probably only be able to go so far before it shunted east looking at the 500. of course we're extrapolating an 84 hr nam...so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, iluvsnow said: "Who is Ji?" Ji is a legendary Mid Atlantic poster. Known for being as pessimistic as anyone who ever trolled a weatherboard. Over the years....his infamous declaration that "WINTER IS OVER" is one of legends. Often parodied...never duplicated. We should be honored such royalty stopped by these parts. LOL!!!!! I was going to write a similar post! lol... It was surreal to see his post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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