IllinoisWedges Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there. Can you post 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Can you post 'em? Mind you this is straight 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Mind you this is straight 10:1 ratios. Thank you! Interesting how some are even further NW. 10:1 haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Thank you! Interesting how some are even further NW. 10:1 haha. Yeah there are a few that are, or I should say the low track allows for Chicago to be in the game on some of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, Stebo said: Mind you this is straight 10:1 ratios. WOW. Is it even possible for a scenario like E20 or E46 to occur?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Definitely pulling for you guys. Looks like this has potential to be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 IWX afd says their fully in the Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Seen this song and dance play out a thousand times....only question left is how long til the gfs caves. Ironic that the 6z nam suddenly jumps in the gfs camp...its like an exclamation point on how bad the American models are. Enjoy it guys....better you than the damn east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6z GFS goes further east, as did the 6z NAM. I don't have access to the full suite of GEFS, but the 11 members you see on the PSU site are pretty much in lock step with their OP model. Should be interesting. I'd probably stay away from the EURO solution until there's more intra/inter model run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z GFS goes further east, as did the 6z NAM. I don't have access to the full suite of GEFS, but the 11 members you see on the PSU site are pretty much in lock step with their OP model. Should be interesting. I'd probably stay away from the EURO solution until there's more intra/inter model run consistency. Granted the euro has been much more jumpy on this then the gfs, but I can't think of a time where the gfs pulled the euro into its solution inside 96 hrs, especially with this type of storm. That and the ukmet jumping to the western solution makes it very hard to ignore, and probably correct. Only good news is I just checked and the euro has pulled so far west we are now out of the freezing rain threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z GFS goes further east, as did the 6z NAM. I don't have access to the full suite of GEFS, but the 11 members you see on the PSU site are pretty much in lock step with their OP model. Should be interesting. I'd probably stay away from the EURO solution until there's more intra/inter model run consistency. The 6z gefs mean precip shield is much further west than the op. At this point I'd say everything is in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just nice to be tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: Granted the euro has been much more jumpy on this then the gfs, but I can't think of a time where the gfs pulled the euro into its solution inside 96 hrs, especially with this type of storm. That and the ukmet jumping to the western solution makes it very hard to ignore, and probably correct. Only good news is I just checked and the euro has pulled so far west we are now out of the freezing rain threat too. EURO still looks further west than the UKIE or GEM. It's definitely possible given the strength of the s/w in the base of the trough and the strengthening baroclinic zone that a storm could rapidly deepen and curl N/NNE. But I'd play the compromise game attm given the kicker on its heels (that won't even be sampled fully til about 66 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The 6z gefs mean precip shield is much further west than the op. At this point I'd say everything is in play That's good to hear brother! 'Cause I be getting whiffed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baum said: Just nice to be tracking. ...something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: EURO still looks further west than the UKIE or GEM. It's definitely possible given the strength of the s/w in the base of the trough and the strengthening baroclinic zone that a storm could rapidly deepen and curl N/NNE. But I'd play the compromise game attm given the kicker on its heels (that won't even be sampled fully til about 66 hours). The only puzzle piece that didn't fit into the usual road to disappointment, was the nam jumping in the gfs camp full throttle. I know the nam sucks but usually in this situation you'd expect it to hump the euro's western solution hardcore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here are the GGEM ensembles at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: The only puzzle piece that didn't fit into the usual road to disappointment, was the nam jumping in the gfs camp full throttle. I know the nam sucks but usually in this situation you'd expect it to hump the euro's western solution hardcore. This is what surprised me as well. Then again, the storm hasn't really entered the NAM's wheelhouse time frame either. I think we are still in the game ... barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: This is what surprised me as well. Then again, the storm hasn't really entered the NAM's wheelhouse time frame either. I think we are still in the game ... barely. Does the nam have a wheelhouse ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Does the man have a wheelhouse ? Touché! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Board is alive and chirping at this hour. Refreshing to see a good ole fashioned '78 blizzard redux can draw out the folks....still. Apologies if there wasn't enough meteorological value in this post for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baum said: Board is alive and chirping at this hour. Refreshing to see a good ole fashioned '78 blizzard redux can draw out the folks....still. Apologies if there wasn't enough meteorological value in this post for some. Might be about 50 millibars too high for that comparison ... But I agree, at least we had something to follow. Although I kind of hope I can tuck this one into the failure camp (if that's where its headed), sooner rather than later, with some better concensus today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Granted there is the possibility of a coastal transfer depending on how far S or SE the LP tracks. The vort timing is key and whether it interacts with the kicker, as spoken earlier, which wont be till within 60 hours. The transfer may play a role in how strong the initial low is. I'd expect a somewhat clearer solution/consensus by tomorrow 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Board is alive and chirping at this hour. Refreshing to see a good ole fashioned '78 blizzard redux can draw out the folks....still. Apologies if there wasn't enough meteorological value in this post for some.Woke up early to check this thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looking at the eps, the slp placement mean at hr102 is over central WV, yet as mentioned earlier, the snowfall mean matches the OP almost perfectly. Seems odd, but maybe that's an indication that the further nw solutions are also the wettest, or at least the snowiest, solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 22 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looking at the eps, the slp placement mean at hr102 is over central WV, yet as mentioned earlier, the snowfall mean matches the OP almost perfectly. Seems odd, but maybe that's an indication that the further nw solutions are also the wettest, or at least the snowiest, solutions. I was wondering that myself. Looking at the "low locations" on the Euro ensemble, they are almost all west of the mean SLP area. The biggest cluster of lows is basically right up the I-71 corridor as it comes through Cincy/CMH. My cynical forecast called for that 2 days ago so I'll roll with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just looked at the 06 GFS, man it's really east.? Also saw the Euro maps (thx, btw)...let's split the difference and run this thing up I-71 from Louisville to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 That was quite a nw shift on 0z euro. If this secondary energy goes negative tilt quicker could see see a more nw track. Curious if this trend continues. Cutoff is quite brutal with this. LOT had an excellent write up this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Great to see this board active with a potential major storm to track (finally) Woke up with 3 new pages to read! Frontogenesis band is the main threat up here, and it is going to be extremely narrow so I am a touch worried that models have me in the bullseye 48 hours out. The local forecast office placed the whole area under a WSW as a precaution but my guess is it gets trimmed to a few counties wide in a SSW-NNE orientation tomorrow. Whoever is under that main frontogenesis band in Minnesota will be in for a solid 6 inches and then back into the freezer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said: Great to see this board active with a potential major storm to track (finally) Woke up with 3 new pages to read! Frontogenesis band is the main threat up here, and it is going to be extremely narrow so I am a touch worried that models have me in the bullseye 48 hours out. The local forecast office placed the whole area under a WSW as a precaution but my guess is it gets trimmed to a few counties wide in a SSW-NNE orientation tomorrow. Whoever is under that main frontogenesis band in Minnesota will be in for a solid 6 inches and then back into the freezer! Your event up there is tied to this first wave coming onshore. The event further east and south will be tied to a different secondary wave rounding the base of the trough late this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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