cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'd be feeling pretty good if I lived near the tri-state area of MI/OH/IN. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'd love to see a Euro Kuchera map. Wouldn't doubt if there's an area near/over 30" on there in/near northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Verbatim, the 00z EURO also depicts a pretty significant freezing rain threat for parts of Central Indiana and Western/Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd love to see a Euro Kuchera map. Wouldn't doubt if there's an area near/over 30" on there in/near northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Can't see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Can't see Now you can, stupid lack of allowing .png files. What is this, 1992... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: lol wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Now you can, stupid lack of allowing .png files. What is this, 1992... Even more snow than I thought. Good God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Even more snow than I thought. Good God. Yeah the last 4 runs have something like that, it is overdone though with the wind being 25mph gusting to 40-45. Which btw this would be a bonafide blizzard for most of the snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: It’s all fun and games until you realize it’s still 4 days out and you’re near the bullseye.... lol 38” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah the last 4 runs have something like that, it is overdone though with the wind being 25mph gusting to 40-45. Which btw this would be a bonafide blizzard for most of the snow area. Yeah those winds would tend to hurt ratios a bit. Nonetheless, a legit 2+ foot swath on multiple Euro runs is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'll take my 31 inches and like it! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I would probably take that map and drop 30% in the western edges and 20% on the eastern edges (wetter snow there). That said you are still looking at someone getting potentially well over 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: lol, that reminds me of a run the ECMWF had during the 72-96 hour timeframe with a upper midwest storm back in December 2009 where it bombed a 960mb bomb over Wisconsin. Same exact timeframe. It relaxed in later runs lol. This is showing those amounts with much weaker SLP and different tracks, this is driven by massive amounts of moisture coming north, not uber dynamics, though dynamics would definitely be in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Overamped much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Another thing to look at for SEMI, during the height of the event the 850mb temps crash, with the winds out of the NNE we would get enhancement off of Lake Huron just to add a cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Quite a Euro run, wow. Icing concerns Thursday night/Friday morning in southeast half of my CWA to a blizzard/near blizzard later Friday into Saturday for the same areas. High impact storm for a lot of people and keeps us in the tracking game in northern Illinois. For my own perspective as a snow lover, need this to come back farther west even. This is giving off vibes of 2/24/16 and I want no part of that lol. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Quite a Euro run, wow. Icing concerns Thursday night/Friday morning in southeast half of my CWA to a blizzard/near blizzard later Friday into Saturday for the same areas. High impact storm for a lot of people and keeps us in the tracking game in northern Illinois. For my own perspective as a snow lover, need this to come back farther west even. This is giving off vibes of 2/24/16 and I want no part of that lol. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah, there's an overlap area there that gets some ice followed by the massive dump of snow. Even what would normally seem like modest amounts of ice could have an exaggerated impact with the kind of winds that the Euro is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah, there's an overlap area there that gets some ice followed by the massive dump of snow. Even what would normally seem like modest amounts of ice could have an exaggerated impact with the kind of winds that the Euro is suggesting. Most of those areas actually get .1-.3" of ice, though I feel this might be overdone and this might be a straight rain to snow type event, for the most part as the front shifts east. Once it stalls though someone will get a bad ice storm with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Most of those areas actually get .1-.3" of ice, though I feel this might be overdone and this might be a straight rain to snow type event, for the most part as the front shifts east. Once it stalls though someone will get a bad ice storm with this one. Any particular reason why you feel it's more of a rain to snow transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Any particular reason why you feel it's more of a rain to snow transition? Front is moving along at a modest clip and there is decent CAA behind the front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Any particular reason why you feel it's more of a rain to snow transition? It seems more common to get ice when you have warm air overriding a layer of cold air. This will be dense cold air pushing in, which seems to favor a quick changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The rain to ZR or sleet scenario is taking the Euro verbatim. It's related to why it's in general had a westward track vs the other guidance, as the baroclinic zone is slower to shift farther southeast. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 The 850 mb front is modeled to lag the surface front by quite a bit though, so that icy/sleety transition zone doesn't seem that unlikely to me. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, blackrock said: It seems more common to get ice when you have warm air overriding a layer of cold air. This will be dense cold air pushing in, which seems to favor a quick changeover. Yeah the cold layer is deep plunging in from the northwest. Only when the front stalls out do issues really arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 850 mb front is modeled to lag the surface front by quite a bit though, so that icy/sleety transition zone doesn't seem that unlikely to me. Just my 2 cents. Initially back further southwest, I was looking more locally across the tri state area. The ice zone is much smaller this way, as the 850mb front surges east quicker up here compared to IL/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there. Was just gonna post this.. Nice shift west/nw with those vs 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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