Jim Martin Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Evening Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall pattern shaping up to send us back into the deep freeze for a period of time. Upper level trough will dig into the eastern United States once again and allow arctic air to return to the region. A surface low pressure system will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and then track northeast through the Ohio River Valley. This is the favored track for ideal synoptic snows for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania provided warm conveyor belt from the Atlantic Ocean does not penetrate too far west into the storm system. All indications are that this will indeed take place causing copious amounts of moisture to track back west along the northern and eastern periphery of the surface low pressure system. Along with the moisture will come the warm air in the middle levels as arctic air slides southeast across the area. This will set the stage for a potential isentropic lift producing liquid precipitation that will become a mixed bag of precipitation across the southeast half of the forecast area. Depth of the cold air in the northwest half should support all snow. So, this storm will have to be monitored closely for the makings of a potential winter storm for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Heard the Toshiba is looking good. . Actually I have heard positive things about the Panasonic model but I have yet to see much model output from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 18Z GFS certainly east of the 12Z ... quite a sharp accumulation gradient on the western side of the snow swatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 They're different storms but two I can think of that may or may not be good analogs? 1. The Boxing Day storm (I think 2012). That trended a bit southeast from early model runs. Was a mixed bag here but blizz warnings from southern IN into western OH. 2. The early January 2014 storm. Heartbreaker here but plastered IN and MI pretty good. That one was bullseyeing us 5 or 6 days before but slowly and steadily trended north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, JPOracle said: 1884 Enigma Outbreak is an analog In terms of what? Surface and/or upper air pattern? SPC says no dice on anything more than a very marginal severe threat due to limited instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: In terms of what? Surface and/or upper air pattern? SPC says no dice on anything more than a very marginal severe threat due to limited instability. Upper Air Pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It's pretty neat that Weather.us (Ryan Maue) let these EPS of charts be free. This definitely pointing to a wet/snowy ensemble average at Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I haven't posted in a long while. But, I like the potential for this system considering with that we're going to have a negative tilt. My only worry is that the warm air will stick around and that this system can trend back to the west. We're supposed to get into the low to mid 60s Thursday and based on what I've witnessed, warm air always wins out in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's pretty neat that Weather.us (Ryan Maue) let these EPS of charts be free. This definitely pointing to a wet/snowy ensemble average at Toledo I cannot locate them on the site. Can you assist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 47 minutes ago, buckeye said: They're different storms but two I can think of that may or may not be good analogs? 1. The Boxing Day storm (I think 2012). That trended a bit southeast from early model runs. Was a mixed bag here but blizz warnings from southern IN into western OH. 2. The early January 2014 storm. Heartbreaker here but plastered IN and MI pretty good. That one was bullseyeing us 5 or 6 days before but slowly and steadily trended north and west. The 12/26/12 storm was actually on the CIPS list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 CIPS could be fairly useless for this event. The reason why the weather is so out wack is from an asteroid hit the earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 The Enigma setup did have a lead system, but the problem I have with it is that the trough with this one is quite a bit deeper/farther south. We have a surface low progged to come out of the Louisiana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, JPOracle said: CIPS could be fairly useless for this event. The reason why the weather is so out wack is from an asteroid hit the earth just for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 There must be some amped/west SREF members for the mean to look like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, JPOracle said: CIPS could be fairly useless for this event. The reason why the weather is so out wack is from an asteroid hit the earth Might want to lay off everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam @84 hours is far west of the GFS/GGEM and very progressive. If extrapolated, Chicago and surrounding areas would see the heaviest amounts with rain/ice elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There must be some amped/west SREF members for the mean to look like this I'll take it. I don't think I have seen that storm path in my 9 years here in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nasty band of IP/ZR just behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Nasty band of IP/ZR just behind the front. Yeah and that front is still moving east, I don't agree with the extrapolation above, you can see it on the p type map/temp map that the front hasn't stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah and that front is still moving east, I don't agree with the extrapolation above, you can see it on the p type map/temp map that the front hasn't stalled. There's a band of decent snow amounts through mby through 84 hrs, but I think heavier snow totals would end up occurring farther east beyond the end of the run. In any case, there is only so much analysis that should be put into the later panels of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Nam @84 hours is far west of the GFS/GGEM and very progressive. If extrapolated, Chicago and surrounding areas would see the heaviest amounts with rain/ice elsewhere. That low in KY isn't even the main secondary. Energy starting to go neg tilt is down in AL by the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah and that front is still moving east, I don't agree with the extrapolation above, you can see it on the p type map/temp map that the front hasn't stalled. Yes, I agree. My mistake. Would probably be similar to the 18z GFS, give or take. H5 looks similar at 84 hours. Progressive run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 looking to be a huge storm maybe a 2 round system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: Yes, I agree. My mistake. Would probably be similar to the 18z GFS, give or take. H5 looks similar at 84 hours. Progressive run! I don't think that is the case either, it is already starting to go neg at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's a band of decent snow amounts through mby through 84 hrs, but I think heavier snow totals would end up occurring farther east beyond the end of the run. In any case, there is only so much analysis that should be put into the later panels of the NAM. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 I can't draw right now to illustrate this but one of the changes since 18z is in the northern stream. See the 540 and 546 contours and how they are farther south into the trough on the 00z run? The 18z GFS made a similar move in that regard but not to the same extent as the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Big thing i am looking for is the strength of the Plains low ( first low ) as the strength of it may determine how far east our main system gets shoved. A weaker first low should help keep everything moving slower ( cold front etc ) which should allow the main system to come in further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Lock this in, I foresee a nightmare morning commute for Minneapolis Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, KokomoWX said: I cannot locate them on the site. Can you assist? http://wx.graphics/models/city/eps_charts.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 0z GFS took a jog to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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