jbcmh81 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, OHweather said: HRRR keeps inching a bit NW and snowier for tonight's snow swath. May work out for places on the bubble like YNG, CAK, CMH and CVG. You gave up half an hour ago and now raising the hope flag. Winter in Ohio. Cincy, Dayton, Wilmington have switched over to snow based on obs. It's coming... only question is how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Changed over to snow about 5 minutes ago. Good flake size of nickle and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 As of 1:15 I can say we have had nothing but rain here in the Dayton area...currently hovering in the 34 degree range. Don't take rain/snow/mixed radar maps as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Moderate sleet in Knox county. Much earlier than anticipated. Was looking at 3-4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: You gave up half an hour ago and now raising the hope flag. Winter in Ohio. Cincy, Dayton, Wilmington have switched over to snow based on obs. It's coming... only question is how much. I reserve the right to change my forecast every new radar frame I still have everyone getting snow, just much less than hoped. If the HRRR pans out it'd be really pushing the upper bounds in some areas. Where the NW cutoff is will be key as it could be sharp tonight. This was a painful adjustment to post on FB this morning, I still think it's in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: As of 1:15 I can say we have had nothing but rain here in the Dayton area...currently hovering in the 34 degree range. Don't take rain/snow/mixed radar maps as gospel. I wasn't, they're the reported obs on ILN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Surface low is a bit west of morning model projections, but still rather weak. I think the recent HRRR runs seem to be capturing this well. Fingers crossed for at least 3" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 8:46 AM, IWXwx said: Buffaloweather wants to lock in the GFS for a synoptic dump. Actually, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are in amazing agreement with the low placement for six days out. You know, for being almost a week out, that op GFS run was not really too bad on timing, strength and placement, but please don't confuse me with Jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Over to sleet here in Westerville as of about 1:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Good thing roadways warmed the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 43 minutes ago, OHweather said: I reserve the right to change my forecast every new radar frame I still have everyone getting snow, just much less than hoped. If the HRRR pans out it'd be really pushing the upper bounds in some areas. Where the NW cutoff is will be key as it could be sharp tonight. This was a painful adjustment to post on FB this morning, I still think it's in the park. Regarding a sharp nw cutoff, I agree completely. It could be pretty dramatic too. Someone between columbus and Lima is gonna be heartbroken. Current obs in Westerville : light sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Sleeting here in Dayton now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Hrrr snow bands significantly nw on the 18z run. Brings 5-7" over to cmh. Further proof of how hard this has been to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It looks like SW Indiana has been getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We're up to 2 inches here and still ripping pretty good nice big flakes. 1/4 inch of ice. Roads are a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Snowing a lot now in Toronto, wow. Huge flakes. Definitely SN. Based on the radar, we may actually get some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Quick change from sleet to mod/heavy snow big flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Starting to cover everything including pavement surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Been a nice defo band setting up over W KY and through IN associated with the upper trough. A little surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Indiana has to be over-performing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Starting to cover everything including pavement surfaces. Good to hear. I was wondering if the warm temps the last few days would hinder the snow from accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Starting to cover everything including pavement surfaces. Looked out my back window at 2:30 and could see it coming. Just checked and pavement and sidewalks covered already. Level 1 snow emergency lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Currently in downtown Findlay. Level One road advisory here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, snowcaine said: Snowing a lot now in Toronto, wow. Huge flakes. Definitely SN. Based on the radar, we may actually get some snow cover. Cotton balls pounding down for the last 1/2 hour. National loop is inducing hallucinations of a further NW track but I don't think that's reality (at least not enough to help us). If we can get anything >1" out of this it's a success. Looks like we're closing in on that mark now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Heavy sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said: Cotton balls pounding down for the last 1/2 hour. National loop is inducing hallucinations of a further NW track but I don't think that's reality (at least not enough to help us). If we can get anything >1" out of this it's a success. Looks like we're closing in on that mark now. I don't know if the track changed, I honestly can't even find the low centre, if there even is one... It seems like the front has really enhanced the snow shield up here though... defos for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Interesting. Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121958Z - 130000Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8 PM EST time frame. DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by early evening. Associated lift, including through the favorable dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71 corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New York state. Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy snow. This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes region this evening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowcaine said: I don't know if the track changed, I honestly can't even find the low centre, if there even is one... It seems like the front has really enhanced the snow shield up here though... defos for days... Should definitely walk away with an inch, as if it ain't already, maybe 2" if were lucky. Temperatures crashed quick, including thermals, and therefore we saw a rapid changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Should definitely walk away with an inch, as if it ain't already, maybe 2" if were lucky. Temperatures crashed quick, including thermals, and therefore we saw a rapid changeover. I'm already at 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Absolutely pouring down sleet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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