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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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20 minutes ago, OHweather said:

HRRR keeps inching a bit NW and snowier for tonight's snow swath.  May work out for places on the bubble like YNG, CAK, CMH and CVG.

You gave up half an hour ago and now raising the hope flag.  Winter in Ohio.  :lol:

Cincy, Dayton, Wilmington have switched over to snow based on obs.  It's coming... only question is how much. 

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20 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

You gave up half an hour ago and now raising the hope flag.  Winter in Ohio.  :lol:

Cincy, Dayton, Wilmington have switched over to snow based on obs.  It's coming... only question is how much. 

I reserve the right to change my forecast every new radar frame :P 

I still have everyone getting snow, just much less than hoped.  If the HRRR pans out it'd be really pushing the upper bounds in some areas.  Where the NW cutoff is will be key as it could be sharp tonight. This was a painful adjustment to post on FB this morning, I still think it's in the park.  image.jpg.bc0e19313dd56ae1d2aefee164249536.jpg

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On 1/7/2018 at 8:46 AM, IWXwx said:

Buffaloweather wants to lock in the GFS for a synoptic dump.

Actually, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are in amazing agreement with the low placement for six days out.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

You know, for being almost a week out, that op GFS run was not really too bad on timing, strength and placement, but please don't confuse me with Jonger.

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43 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I reserve the right to change my forecast every new radar frame :P 

I still have everyone getting snow, just much less than hoped.  If the HRRR pans out it'd be really pushing the upper bounds in some areas.  Where the NW cutoff is will be key as it could be sharp tonight. This was a painful adjustment to post on FB this morning, I still think it's in the park.  image.jpg.bc0e19313dd56ae1d2aefee164249536.jpg

Regarding a sharp nw cutoff, I agree completely.    It could be pretty dramatic too.   Someone between columbus and Lima is gonna be heartbroken.

Current obs in Westerville : light sleet

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35 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

Snowing a lot now in Toronto, wow. Huge flakes. Definitely SN. Based on the radar, we may actually get some snow cover.

Cotton balls pounding down for the last 1/2 hour. National loop is inducing hallucinations of a further NW track but I don't think that's reality (at least not enough to help us). If we can get anything >1" out of this it's a success. Looks like we're closing in on that mark now.

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1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Cotton balls pounding down for the last 1/2 hour. National loop is inducing hallucinations of a further NW track but I don't think that's reality (at least not enough to help us). If we can get anything >1" out of this it's a success. Looks like we're closing in on that mark now.

I don't know if the track changed, I honestly can't even find the low centre, if there even is one...

It seems like the front has really enhanced the snow shield up here though... defos for days...

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Interesting.

Mesoscale Discussion 0023
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

   Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn
   New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow

   Valid 121958Z - 130000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may
   develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8
   PM EST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into
   portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough
   pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate
   an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic
   forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by
   early evening.  Associated lift, including through the favorable
   dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of
   increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71
   corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east
   northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New
   York state.  Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to
   sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances
   southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy
   snow.  This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near
   or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to
   develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes
   region this evening.

   ..Kerr.. 01/12/2018

mcd0023.gif

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7 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I don't know if the track changed, I honestly can't even find the low centre, if there even is one...

It seems like the front has really enhanced the snow shield up here though... defos for days...

Should definitely walk away with an inch, as if it ain't already, maybe 2" if were lucky. Temperatures crashed quick, including thermals, and therefore we saw a rapid changeover.  

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