GreenBo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 HRRR sets up a nasty frontogenetic band around Detroit. High precipitation rates and mostly all snow. Magnet working overtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Well for the 2nd time this winter a useless thaw has ripped away a healthy snowpack to just piles. Looking like it could be an interesting morning tomorrow here in SE MI, we may salvage something yet. I thought la Nina is Spanish for "snow and melt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Brings back memories of a storm, (circa '94? maybe '95...january)... we had steady moderate to heavy sleet all day long, temps in the teens. Then at nightfall it turned to a brief period of heavy rain and thunderstorms followed by freezing rain and a flash freeze. The next day OSU students were skating on high st. For the record, an all day steady sleet storm yielded about 1.5" of sleet. There is no greater waste of precip.It's like having a hot sister Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: It's like having a hot sister Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Your best contribution to the thread so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Final call for mby: DAB. Enjoy the storm friends! Agreed. This storm was one that got away. There are plenty of storms in the sea, though. Environment Canada seems to be calling for a chance of snow on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: It's like having a hot sister Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk An oldie but a goodie. I think you coined that phrase back in the wwb days. When regions had no borders and a single forum was shared by all. We all fought over the same storm and threads turned into raging dumpster fires..... I miss those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Agreed. This storm was one that got away. There are plenty of storms in the sea, though. Environment Canada seems to be calling for a chance of snow on Tuesday... Just one of many disappointments. This was our best chance at any major accumulating snow as beyond a weak clipper, which may very well track SE of us and become another east coast special, there's nothing that intrigues me through Jan 22nd. Trash month. MJO moving through phases 3-4-5 means increased warmer risks, pacific jet extension, etc. This may mean more storms but also the risk of many cutters due to a tight gradient. Tired of the disappointments. Enjoy the storm guys! Especially Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: That's what ganahl says too...4-6 Bank it. And hope for isolated lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: Bank it. And hope for isolated lollipops. I would take 4 to 6 and run with it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Steve said: I would take 4 to 6 and run with it!! Agreed. With this kind of set up it's really the best we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: I thought la Nina is Spanish for "snow and melt" I swear it is. Better to have had and lost then to not have had at all lol. 50 shades of gray in all parking lots at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Just one of many disappointments. This was our best chance at any major accumulating snow as beyond a weak clipper, which may very well track SE of us and become another east coast special, there's nothing that intrigues me through Jan 22nd. Trash month. MJO moving through phases 3-4-5 means increased warmer risks, pacific jet extension, etc. This may mean more storms but also the risk of many cutters due to a tight gradient. Tired of the disappointments. Enjoy the storm guys! Especially Ohio. Better move or find another hobby then. Cause it ain't gonna get any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Now down to 24 here. Was 40 degrees at 2, pretty strong cold front. Of course not as sharp as down south but still pretty sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Better move or find another hobby then. Cause it ain't gonna get any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Why do "Detroit" and "band of snow" seem to go hand-in-hand this decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Wintry precipitation beginning to develop tonight back across Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Interesting to see the HRRR have the low down south inching NW run to run for the last several runs. Certainly the snow band in this area is going to be in the area longer than originally expected. I guess the massive magnet in Wyandotte is on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Interesting to see the HRRR have the low down south inching NW run to run for the last several runs. Certainly the snow band in this area is going to be in the area longer than originally expected. I guess the massive magnet in Wyandotte is on tonight. No doubt. Just peeked at the 23z HRRR and it’s lolipoping 5-6” in and around the Ann Arbor region. Frontogenetic banding keeps getting more robust and expansive with each subsequent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 After an exhaustive review, some thoughts... Temps are a bit warmer in the warm sector ahead of the front than modeled and also cool a bit quicker right behind the front. Heights are running a little higher ahead of the trough than 12z and 18z models had, though it's a small difference. The northern stream shortwave may be diving SE a bit less aggressively than modeled as well. This is supported by WV loops showing the southwestern vort max with the northern stream shortwave clearly diving in a bit behind the shortwave that becomes our storm as opposed to towards or ahead of it (which would tend to force the storm farther east). At the moment, the models appear to be perhaps a tad too far east with the developing surface low over western LA/AR, though it's messy right now and not well-defined. I also don't like that some models have the low moving ESE across AL/GA tomorrow despite the trough being slightly negatively tilted...not sure if they're jumping around due to a bit of convective feedback. All in all, although there aren't huge differences these obs suggest the farther SE models may be incorrect. I ended up going a bit NW of the Euro for that reason. Keep in mind the GFS, UKMET, and some hi-res models (especially the ARW which is way overdone) have snow a good bit NW of the Euro, so it's not like there's no guidance support. It may ultimately come down to whether or not there's enough of a positive feedback with the developing cyclone tonight into tomorrow to force enough of a negative tilt to keep the low west of the Apps a little longer. Obs suggest it may occur and a lot of higher-res stuff shows it, but the models that are farther SE still create a good bit of uncertainty. Ultimately, here's my forecast snow/sleet. Included 2-4" for far NW OH due to short-term models showing a beefier fgen band in that area late morning into the afternoon, and this does extrapolate towards Detroit and Fort Wayne too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 FWIW, the mean on the 21Z SREF plume for CMH just jumped up to 6.4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 21z SREF Plume for the Findlay area. Just over four inches on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The nam came north a bit and stronger yet the precip shield really didn't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 0Z NAM looks pretty well aligned with the Euro. Cuts totals in my area quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: The nam came north a bit and stronger yet the precip shield really didn't follow suit. Is it me or does it seem like precip never really made it past the convection in Kentucky and eastern oh/western pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Best of luck with your snowstorm, Ohio friends! Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well that was a dumpster fire of a run, especially the 3km NAM. Hoping that is a fluke.....the precip just kind of goes away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I thought the NAM was going to be impressive after it initialized. Nope. Off to bed. Type to you next week. I'm with you, I ran thru the 500 first and was pumped to see the surface....no match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: I'm with you, I ran thru the 500 first and was pumped to see the surface....no match. Something is off with that. Why would the precip just dissolve like that with a deepening (albeit slowly) low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Precip pattern reminded me off what you'd see with a coastal jumper....which its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Right, no reason for the precip to just fade away like that. Oddly enough the 12km NAM at least makes a little more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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