buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 better trough tilt on the nam....should be west some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WWA just issued for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: better trough tilt on the nam....should be west some Yep, and slightly stronger than 12z. Seems to be a trend. Every run on the models is a mb stronger and a few miles further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Must be some type of force field over me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Winter Storm Warning for us in W. Ky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Inching westward. More like leaping westward per some MESO models. NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 ILN goes WWA for entire CWA. Probably not a bad idea for now. They can upgrade later if strengthening trend continues or they can pinpoint the heavier precip/snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: ILN goes WWA for entire CWA. Probably not a bad idea for now. They can upgrade later if strengthening trend continues or they can pinpoint the heavier precip/snow area. Plus we're all so snow-hardened having 9" last year and almost 10" this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: Plus we're all so snow-hardened having 9" last year and almost 10" this year... Heck thats a lot for me. I've been in Richmond for a month but lived in Georgia my entire life. Anything over 2" in a winter is a good winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN goes WWA for entire CWA. Probably not a bad idea for now. They can upgrade later if strengthening trend continues or they can pinpoint the heavier precip/snow area. Actually a good thing about that is I'd hate to break our 700+ day streak of no wsw issued on a busted storm..... so we got that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: This isn't going to be the storm that produces a big 12+ wide like the models were showing for the lakes 2 days ago. The negative tilt just isn't there until it hits up into the eastern/northern lakes in the northeast. If you look at the January 9 12z run of the NAM, you can see the difference. If somebody can get 8 inches out of this, it was a good storm. I think a general 4-8 inches is doable. IWX Adding to concerns, the 12Z NAM develops a bullseye of QPF over our east-central CWA in response to the enhanced forcing in the right entrance region of a strengthening 300MB Jet between 9-15Z, which stretches over northern Lower Michigan/Ontario/Quebec. The enhanced upper level divergence works to tilt our trough negatively and contract (strengthen) the frontal zone across our area. Looking at a cross section through the frontal zone, we see a brief period of decent instability/CSI. If it occurs, this will favor the development of heavier bands of snow, which supports the idea of the NAM`s increase in QPF (including the FWA area). Overall, however the time the ingredients come together is pretty short-lived, and don`t expect too much in the way of additional ice accumulations beyond those forecasted at this point. Furthermore, thinking it will largely be more snow/sleet than any freezing rain at the times of greatest instability. In the end, put 2-3" snow in the forecast for the eastern half of the advisory given the potential. (we'll see if the NAM has a clue..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The areas around Buffalo seem to have the best chance of seeing at least 6'' of snow, if not 10 inches. Won't be seeing much lake effect enhancement due to the frozen lake erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy46237 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 From what we know right now, Metro Indy is just going to be a sloppy mess, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: The areas around Buffalo seem to have the best chance of seeing at least 6'' of snow, if not 10 inches. Won't be seeing much lake effect enhancement due to the frozen lake erie. It's taking a big hit from this warmup. Only 42.4% covered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Rain all day here and the temp went from 59 to 34 in maybe a half hour. Luckily the rain stopped so no freezing rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 In theory, this should be the NAMs time to shine with the mesoscale aspects involved, but it's a tricky setup with the rapidly changing thermal profiles. I'd buy the enhanced banded idea but exact placement could always be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: More like leaping westward per some MESO models. NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z GFS seems to continue the hair north/stronger look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Good luck to all the Ohio folks, particularly south Ohio. Looking forward to my flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: In theory, this should be the NAMs time to shine with the mesoscale aspects involved, but it's a tricky setup with the rapidly changing thermal profiles. I'd buy the enhanced banded idea but exact placement could always be off. I just wanna see these rates the short-range Canadien is flashing over mby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18Z a nail biter for GTA. Shocked to see it move west by about 40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: 18z GFS seems to continue the hair north/stronger look. I think we're starting to get to a general consensus for our area of about 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 After an hour or two of sleet, finally seeing a little light snow in DVN with temps down to 20 from that nice 53 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: 18z GFS seems to continue the hair north/stronger look. Almost doubled the total for mby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I think we're starting to get to a general consensus for our area of about 4-6". That's what ganahl says too...4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Narrow zone of icing in Wisconsin. Some 0.10" freezing rain reported in Iowa. Light freezing rain reported at Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This has to be the weirdest most inconsistent winter storm I've ever seen. Never seen so many different forecasts and inconsistent warnings advisories and models to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Almost doubled the total for mby.. What a turn of events haha. Feel like it’s not over... 00z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Actually a good thing about that is I'd hate to break our 700+ day streak of no wsw issued on a busted storm..... so we got that going for us 702 days for the ILN CWA. More specifically, 1055 days for the Dayton and Columbus crew along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Final call for mby: DAB. Enjoy the storm friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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