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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN goes WWA for entire CWA. Probably not a bad idea for now. They can upgrade later if strengthening trend continues or they can pinpoint the heavier precip/snow area.

Actually a good thing about that is I'd hate to break our 700+ day streak of no wsw issued on a busted storm.....   so we got that going for us

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3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

This isn't going to be the storm that produces a big 12+ wide like the models were showing for the lakes 2 days ago. The negative tilt just isn't there until it hits up into the eastern/northern lakes in the northeast. If you look at the  January 9 12z run of the NAM, you can see the difference.

If somebody can get 8 inches out of this, it was a good storm. I think a general 4-8 inches is doable.

IWX

Adding to concerns, the 12Z NAM develops a bullseye of QPF over
our east-central CWA in response to the enhanced forcing in the
right entrance region of a strengthening 300MB Jet between 9-15Z,
which stretches over northern Lower Michigan/Ontario/Quebec. The
enhanced upper level divergence works to tilt our trough
negatively and contract (strengthen) the frontal zone across our
area. Looking at a cross section through the frontal zone, we see
a brief period of decent instability/CSI. If it occurs, this will
favor the development of heavier bands of snow, which supports the
idea of the NAM`s increase in QPF (including the FWA area).
Overall, however the time the ingredients come together is pretty
short-lived, and don`t expect too much in the way of additional
ice accumulations beyond those forecasted at this point.
Furthermore, thinking it will largely be more snow/sleet than any
freezing rain at the times of greatest instability. In the end,
put 2-3" snow in the forecast for the eastern half of the advisory
given the potential.

 

(we'll see if the NAM has a clue..)

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

In theory, this should be the NAMs time to shine with the mesoscale aspects involved, but it's a tricky setup with the rapidly changing thermal profiles.  I'd buy the enhanced banded idea but exact placement could always be off.

I just wanna see these rates the short-range Canadien is flashing over mby! :lol:

 

20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png

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