Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: East? Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is. edit: I guess you mean Niagara. You sure you don't want to hold out a bit of hope till 0z. Only partial sampling through 12z today. The difference 50 miles can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 RGEM didn't change the entire evolution like the NAM, but appears to be a bit farther SE than its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, OHweather said: RGEM didn't change the entire evolution like the NAM, but appears to be a bit farther SE than its 6z run. I think it will be a nowcast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 RGEM still a good hit for CMH, and even the 3km NAM isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS looking better. Not as much of an elongated turd look to it as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: GFS looking better. Not as much of an elongated turd look to it as last night. Agreed. It's a slight improvement over the 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12z NAM is a little interesting for the Detroit area. I don’t know if I trust how fast it wants to drop 850mb temps but there’s a lot of precipitation that moves into the region after around or just after the changeover. Detroit snow magnet? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Looks like an I-71 jackpot of 7” with of course a hole in the death trap for snow known as central Ohio where there is just 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: Looks like an I-71 jackpot of 7” with of course a hole in the death trap for snow known as central Ohio where there is just 4”. If we can muster anything out of this it will be a win I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 there really is no true concensus of where the heaviest axis(or plural), set up. This really is going to be a nowcast wrt jackpots and lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: there really is no true concensus of where the heaviest axis(or plural), set up. This really is going to be a nowcast wrt jackpots and lollipops My gut and experience says it will end up a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: there really is no true concensus of where the heaviest axis(or plural), set up. This really is going to be a nowcast wrt jackpots and lollipops This, to me, is incredible. IMO, it's an indication that despite such amazing technology, meteorology and forecasting has such a long way to go. And do not take this the wrong way, I am not bashing the science or the people behind it. I am saying that despite such amazing computer modeling, data, etc, storms like this STILL can be a shot in the dark, and I think in the age we are in, that thought sometimes leaves people at a loss. That said, I'm ready to nowcast. I could honestly see this going either way. There has been such a strong un-ignorable eastward trend, but if we get a westward wobble, I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: I think it will be a nowcast storm. No doubt we will be tweaking things through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, geddyweather said: This, to me, is incredible. IMO, it's an indication that despite such amazing technology, meteorology and forecasting has such a long way to go. And do not take this the wrong way, I am not bashing the science or the people behind it. I am saying that despite such amazing computer modeling, data, etc, storms like this STILL can be a shot in the dark, and I think in the age we are in, that thought sometimes leaves people at a loss. That said, I'm ready to nowcast. I could honestly see this going either way. There has been such a strong un-ignorable eastward trend, but if we get a westward wobble, I wouldn't be surprised. Without straying too much into politics...if our government had the proper respect for science, we COULD invest more into increasing our observation areas in the currently very sparse areas for data. This would genuinely help with our forecast modeling. But off my soapbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: East? Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is. edit: I guess you mean Niagara. Yes sorry! I mean Niagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Most of the 12z models have come in a little stronger with the low, even the GFS, which is a few MBs stronger at 12z than 0z. Same with CMC, NAM, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Nice to see SE Michigan back in the play for a moderate storm. It appears will have to wait for the 0z model suite for the final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just catching up on the thread. Have been busy since the models bailed on me. Now I'm saying, "You mean I still have a chance?" The Detroit magnet must have been turned on and I could see the residual benefits of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: Without straying too much into politics...if our government had the proper respect for science, we COULD invest more into increasing our observation areas in the currently very sparse areas for data. This would genuinely help with our forecast modeling. But off my soapbox. You can always get better, and what you suggest would help to some extent. I think people sometimes have unrealistic expectations. Fact is, modeling will never achieve total perfection given what is currently known about mathematics (even then, there would only be so many data/observation points being input). Maybe it's not great from a public relations perspective, but as a weather hobbyist, I am glad that every detail is not known in advance. It would get boring if it were 100% predictable each and every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 My guess at what's happening is the models all shifted way SE as the energy got sampled and the northern stream's stronger influence became evident. Now that that's resolved, we still have time for some modest NW bump that inevitably occurs when a dynamic/moisture laden setup develops a low deeper than the longer range models. The HRRRx is a huge hit along and just NW of I-71...I didn't see the QPF but it probably has lollis of over a foot. That's more aggressive than I would be, but this may be an interesting forecast down to the end. Mildly optimistic for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 uk appears to have moved west with a low just east of Pittsburgh. Precip maps look good for OH but hard to tell without seeing between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not expecting any more than a light dusting here in extreme east-central IN. Probably too far west for anything more than that. Good luck to everyone in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not surprisingly, the models are too slow with the temperature drop behind the front. For example, the HRRR/RAP had Moline at 44 degrees, but it's already down to 38. The obvious implications are a slight speed up of flash freeze conditions and a changeover to ice where precip occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 uk appears to have moved west with a low just east of Pittsburgh. Precip maps look good for OH but hard to tell without seeing between panels.The 48 hour HRRR unloads on us. Solid 6-12 right up Cincy Dayton Columbus. Can't say I've used the 48 hr hrrr before lol Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Snowstorms said: You sure you don't want to hold out a bit of hope till 0z. Only partial sampling through 12z today. The difference 50 miles can make. I'm not expecting a major snowfall for the GTA, but if things go right, then we could see 2-4". The 12Z UKMET moved in the right direction. As others have stated, it's going to be a nowcast situation. On a smaller scale, the snowfall last month on the Saturday before Christmas (Dec. 23) wasn't solidified until 12z Friday Dec. 22. Same with the Christmas Eve snowfall. It came down to the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not surprisingly, the models are too slow with the temperature drop behind the front. For example, the HRRR/RAP had Moline at 44 degrees, but it's already down to 38. The obvious implications are a slight speed up of flash freeze conditions and a changeover to ice where precip occurs. Yup, I've just transitioned from IP to snow, like 2 or 3 hours ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Yup, I've just transitioned from IP to snow, like 2 or 3 hours ahead of schedule. Just so nobody reading my other post takes it the wrong way... it looks like the actual front/wind shift is located about where it should be. It's just that the cold air is coming in faster once you're behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just so nobody reading my other post takes it the wrong way... it looks like the actual front/wind shift is located about where it should be. It's just that the cold air is coming in faster once you're behind it. Yea, the gradient itself is steeper at the surface for sure, and maybe aloft too? Most guidance didn't have snow here until after 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: I'm not expecting a major snowfall for the GTA, but if things go right, then we could see 2-4". The 12Z UKMET moved in the right direction. As others have stated, it's going to be a nowcast situation. On a smaller scale, the snowfall last month on the Saturday before Christmas (Dec. 23) wasn't solidified until 12z Friday Dec. 22. Same with the Christmas Eve snowfall. It came down to the last minute. I agree that 2" is still possible. This is very much a nowcasting event. I remember when a storm made a sudden shift in either February or March 2001. This very much reminds me of the December 30 , 1997. 30 cm (12") forecast the day before only for Toronto to get a dusting and Kingston, Ontario getting pounded. In a way that was the biggest bust I've experienced from 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Yea, the gradient itself is steeper at the surface for sure, and maybe aloft too? Most guidance didn't have snow here until after 1pm. It's probably both then based on what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.