buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 My son goes back to Athens tomorrow. According to the nam they can expect over a foot....meanwhile the gfs has them at 1". And we're inside 48 hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Just a nudge to get into 3-6". And I'd take it. I hate going into the deep freeze with bare grass. Not happening so to bad, haha. Like I said yesterday, unless I see the other models mishandling the H5 pattern, I have a hard time buying an outlier. Stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 ILN not buying the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: Everything a little more amped/west. Would be hilarious if it was a last-minute trend back west. Really amazing how subtle the differences at 500 are making such a huge difference at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: ILN not buying the NAM. Bummer since the 3km brings the foot line well into central Ohio too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: Bummer since the 3km brings the foot line well into central Ohio too Yea, definitely a spread the wealth scenario. A good foot over most of central OH. Too bad it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Well...the RGEM is sort of on its own here. Would need other models to come on board with the amount of amplification it's showing. The HRDPS, a high resolution model, is the only model that is currently offering us SOME hope. Atm, I dont buy it but let's see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011106&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Yea, definitely a spread the wealth scenario. A good foot over most of central OH. Too bad it won't happen. I dunno, 6Z RGEM was going that way after .5” of ZR. That was an insane run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: I dunno, 6Z RGEM was going that way after .5” of ZR. That was an insane run! Scary scenario if that verified! Did the 3km NAM do well with the last East Coast storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Scary scenario if that verified! Did the 3km NAM do well with the last East Coast storm? Yes both NAMs did pretty well. Euro didn’t do well on the western side of the storm near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Congrats to the folks cashing in on this one, much needed for you all! Back end minor glazing and maybe a 1" of snow enough for them to a trigger a WWA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This is a setup that could really have some nowcast surprises. All the moving parts and the added uncertainty of when precip changeovers occur. ILN should go 1-8" . That should cover it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: This is a setup that could really have some nowcast surprises. All the moving parts and the added uncertainty of when precip changeovers occur. ILN should go 1-8" . That should cover it There definitely could be some localized lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, buckeye said: This is a setup that could really have some nowcast surprises. All the moving parts and the added uncertainty of when precip changeovers occur. ILN should go 1-8" . That should cover it Hey, 2-4 with locally higher amounts covers anything! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, wxdudemike said: Hey, 2-4 with locally higher amounts covers anything! LOL 54 minutes ago, buckeye said: Bummer since the 3km brings the foot line well into central Ohio too That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, NoDoppler4TnySandz said: That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping. And I know all my Buckeye brothers understand what I am talking about, particularly those not in the Northern sections of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Going to finish with well under an inch here, this turned into a non-event rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 For those threading the needle with this event, it seems that all of the higher res models are a tick west of their lower resolution counterparts. Happy for those who are going to see snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: The HRDPS, a high resolution model, is the only model that is currently offering us SOME hope. Atm, I dont buy it but let's see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011106&fh=48 HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Models really blew the temperature forecast this morning... the entire sub is much warmer. It's actually really pleasant out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, snowcaine said: HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier. The snow pack, or whats left of it, is going to be history by tomorrow morning so salvage what you can because it doesn't look like were going to see something similar for a while, lol. Cold and barren ground on the weekend. Absolutely hate that. January off to another terrible start. At this point, I've got no optimism left with this system. Progressiveness has been winning this entire winter and there's no reason to doubt it won't again for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: My son goes back to Athens tomorrow. According to the nam they can expect over a foot....meanwhile the gfs has them at 1". And we're inside 48 hrs lol. They'll get a tenth or two of ZR, an insane amount (1-2") of sleet, and end as 1-2" of snow is my guess. Surprised there isn't a Winter Storm Watch down there yet. The NAM has a lot of that snow falling as heavy sleet for like 6 hours on the ptype maps. 6z runs...are we finally getting our NW shift?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 LOL…12Z NAM gives us a turd. Basically a frontal passage. Time to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Lol....nam completely different scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 A compromise between the 6z and 12z NAM is what we're likely to get. Don't panic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 And meanwhile, the 3km NAM still delivers the goods. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3km Nam extents precipitation shield west by about 40 miles.. That was unexpected. The difference between the 3 and 12km models is surprising... I wonder if convection is throwing this solution off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, snowcaine said: 3km Nam shifts west by about 40 miles.. That was unexpected. Now that's what you call a snow hole or snow dome, right over Toronto, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Now that's what you call a snow hole or snow dome, right over Toronto, lol. I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, snowcaine said: I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. East? Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is. edit: I guess you mean Niagara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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