Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Dayton gets 4. NW Ohio smashed. Im assuming Richmond gets 4 also since we are only 45 miles west of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Im assuming Richmond gets 4 also since we are only 45 miles west of Dayton. I'm 20 minutes from Greenville in darke county. Has me at 15 for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Im assuming Richmond gets 4 also since we are only 45 miles west of Dayton. Euro gives Richmond a nice thump.. right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, OHweather said: Definitely possible if we don't get a clean phase...which the majority of models/ensemble members have, but some don't so it's a solution we can't yet discount. Really what it comes down to is how much of a kicker vs. phaser the incoming s/w is, which is something that is a question in many storm setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 How are things looking for Western Kentucky right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 & when should we know more? Like 2 days before it happens? Or the day of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Can't believe nobody posted the 84 hr NAM. Nice restraint, lol Oh well. I look at anything and everything especially when something big lurks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Really what it comes down to is how much of a kicker vs. phaser the incoming s/w is, which is something that is a question in many storm setups. Right. It helps confidence somewhat that there's been pretty consistent agreement among the ops and ensemble members on a decent phase, but until the (smaller) camp that has more of a kicker than a phaser goes away we can't discount it. In terms of limiting uncertainty, the piece that creates the first wave on Thursday doesn't get sampled partially until 12z tomorrow and more fully 0z Wednesday...the second piece that turns into our southern stream shortwave does get partial sampling tomorrow and fuller sampling Wednesday...and the shortwave that either phases or kicks it farther east doesn't get sampled until 0z Friday. So there is quite a bit of time, though some certainty may be added as early as tomorrow's 12z runs if there's a decided trend one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would say 2/3rd are west if the op with some even bringing the rain/ice line close to here. Only one or two are like the ukie nonsense. Which is a large shift west compared to 06z ensembles as well. I have been not looking forward to the mini torch Thursday as we have such a nice snowpack that will undoubtedly be down to piles and patches...but is the warm weather actually helping this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, michsnowfreak said: I have been not looking forward to the mini torch Thursday as we have such a nice snowpack that will undoubtedly be down to piles and patches...but is the warm weather actually helping this storm? Explicitly no the warm weather isn't but the trough having 2 pieces, the first system lays out a path for the second system to follow. So in a roundabout way yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 It's subtle but dprog/dt on the past few GFS runs has been slowing the front down slightly, which is what you'd want to see for a better chance of baby bumps west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can't believe nobody posted the 84 hr NAM. Nice restraint, lol Oh well. I look at anything and everything especially when something big lurks lol, I saw this too, but didn't want to crap on the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not the greatest run to run continuity here. The differences aloft do allow for more precip to get farther west initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 That lake effect band on the 18z GFS would make up for missing the synoptic dump. Nearly 20 hours of Chicago special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Can't believe nobody posted the 84 hr NAM. Nice restraint, lol Oh well. I look at anything and everything especially when something big lurks This looks way more plausible with temps expected and typical of Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: This looks way more plausible with temps expected and typical of Central Indiana. I actually didn't think it was that bad of a look. It would likely change to snow after that and rip... though maybe the eastern part of central IN would be more problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Has anyone ever used this site for Euro forecast for a location, https://www.yr.no? It is a txt/graphic forecast based on Euro Op runs. It has my location at over an inch of frozen precip. I don’t think there is a way to figure out from it, what kind of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Trough looks pretty vigorous and is already neutral tilt by 84 hours. I would tend to think this favours a further west solution. But that kicker driving in the backside of the trough might keep things more progressive. I'd in the undecided camp right now. Either solutions seems plausible/possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A bit of a no duh post but if you're farther west, you want the initial wave as far west as possible with a slowdown in the cold frontal passage. Just the opposite if you're east.Keep the ‘no duh’ post coming every now and then. Helps conceptualize things for those of us with limited understanding . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This is an OV and E. GL event.Anyone around here thinking this is a legitimate threat may want to think again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 NAM model isn't overdone, that energy coming in looks like an bombogenesis scenario. 18z analog to me would be the 1884 Enigma Outbreak and the panasonic model is some agreement with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, JPOracle said: NAM model isn't overdone, that energy coming in looks like an bombogenesis scenario. 18z analog to me would be the 1884 Enigma Outbreak and the panasonic model is some agreement with it Panasonic model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Panasonic model? Yeah I would love to take a look at that output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Intrigued by this one. Tough forecast until all the players on the field. Digggg and relax a bit. Otherwise the awful GFS is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Its an private weather model based in Pittsburgh, public open sourced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yeah I would love to take a look at that output.Heard the Toshiba is looking good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Put some basic prelim thoughts in the LES thread for anyone from Chicago metro or elsewhere who is interested in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Am having flashbacks to the Blizzard of 1978 in terms of the weather before that colossal storm with this potential setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1884 Enigma Outbreak is an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Put some basic prelim thoughts in the LES thread for anyone from Chicago metro or elsewhere who is interested in that. Was watching this threat as well. If it's a miss with the synoptic snows, at least put us in a sweet spot with a long fetch LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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