vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: Getting lost in all the disappointment is the fact that we are 48 hrs out and models are still all over the place on placement of the snow area(s). This will continue to be a headache to forecast. I don't envy the NWS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I can't help but think this ton of warm moist air thats being transported north is really screwing with the models. It's a lot warmer here. 6-9 degrees, than any model had us as early as 12Z. My P&C low has increased 10 degrees since this morning. I dunno, there just seems something fishy's going on. Models underestimate temps in the warm sector of cold season storms like 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The gfs gave me this and took it away. That was way worse. Had about 2-3 days of these runs from a stj that suddenly dissapearedSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs gave me this and took it away. That was way worse. Had about 2-3 days of these runs from a stj that suddenly dissapeared Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah I feel our areas have just been screwed a lot. Good luck to you guys. I don't envy the NWS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Models underestimate temps in the warm sector of cold season storms like 99% of the time. I get that. Guess I'm still riding that little quote from LOT yesterday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 If it makes you guys feel better, I don’t think I’ve seen a 6+ inch event since 2011. Maybe a clipper or two that overperformed. Even though this is trending better for us, we still will likely only get 4-6 inches. Really been a tough stretch for anyone pitside the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Some good melts in this thread. I never really had a good feeling about any particular solution with this one. Ensembles were the key. Been seeing huge spread between members beyond 72 hrs for the whole event. Never could be confident in much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Barely anyone is staying up for the euro. Fool me once ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Each run of the HRRR getting drier and further east in IA/MN. Not even sure there will be warning criteria worthy totals in southern MN anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Barely anyone is staying up for the euro. Fool me once ... I happened to be awake and saw that the Euro went farther east, but I wasn't awake specifically to watch the Euro. Not this time at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 General 2-5" on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: The gfs gave me this and took it away. That was way worse. Had about 2-3 days of these runs from a stj that suddenly dissapeared Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk A 9 and a half day forecast , once a hack always a hack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, OHweather said: I happened to be awake and saw that the Euro went farther east, but I wasn't awake specifically to watch the Euro. Not this time at least. At least it gets some heavier snows into OH as a whole. Better run for MBY than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: At least it gets some heavier snows into OH as a whole. Better run for MBY than the 12z. Def better than 12z. Slightly more amped and stronger. Probaby worth 2-4 more inches for central and s. Oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Def better than 12z. Slightly more amped and stronger. Probaby worth 2-4 more inches for central and s. Oh Perhaps we reached rock bottom and are going the other way? The glass is half full my friend! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6z NAM a good hit for southern and eastern OH. Anyone NW of CMH is shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: 6z NAM a good hit for southern and eastern OH. Anyone NW of CMH is shafted. Over a foot for you. I'm rooting NAM all the way. 6z was quite a bit stronger. But it is off hour. I'll wait on the GFS but would like to see it come in stronger as well in hopes that it's due to having more sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, dilly84 said: Over a foot for you. I'm rooting NAM all the way. 6z was quite a bit stronger. But it is off hour. I'll wait on the GFS but would like to see it come in stronger as well in hopes that it's due to having more sampling. Yea, stronger overall, even CMH squeezes a decent hit out of it. I must be honest, I am not a huge fan of this set up. Threading the needle around these parts rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: Yea, stronger overall, even CMH squeezes a decent hit out of it. I must be honest, I am not a huge fan of this set up. Threading the needle around these parts rarely works out. Not really threading the needle as we know we are going to get some ZR. Changeover from West to east so I think we'll be good. Just a matter of how strong or weak the system ends up being. Every model is around the same track but the strengths are so different it's hard to say. We could get 2" or 12" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Not really threading the needle as we know we are going to get some ZR. Changeover from West to east so I think we'll be good. Just a matter of how strong or weak the system ends up being. Every model is around the same track but the strengths are so different it's hard to say. We could get 2" or 12" lol. The globals need to get on board. At least the 00z euro was a step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: RGEM looks better than the NAM. It ensembles have been much more bullish as well. More refined and negative tilted. The core band is more up over I-71(definitely a buckeye run) rather than eastern ohio. I wonder if the northern stream dipping further southeast than expected hasn't thrown the models off but ultimately that would have led to a track over I-71 interestingly once the belled tolled. So it may be a blessing. FWIW, ILN has issued a watch for the I-71 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6z RGEM is a bit more robust than the rest of the guidance. 0z UKIE/6z GFS would only need a 30-40 miles push to the west to give Toronto a moderate event Friday night. Still have a heartbeat with this one. Wish the northern stream would dig a little more and at least partially phase with the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 With the good start to winter here and the complete model failure here, this will probably be the 7th or 8th largest snowfall....THIS SEASON so far . But what should not be taken lightly is that condijtions could be dangerous tomorrow morning. Rain turning to ice then snow as temps plummet. Travel nightmare. A glaze of ice followed by 1-2" snow is the current forecast. Early am temps tomorrow in the 50s will be teens by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 hours ago, Toronto4 said: Same here. As a lifelong Torontonian, I have grown accustomed to busts and the odd pleasant surprise (April 11, 1999, Feb 8, 2001 and March 5, 2001). Back to this upcoming “event”, I’m not expecting anything major and if things somehow improve, it’ll be 2 to 3” at best for the GTA. I agree with the 2-3". The 6z RGEM seemed to go slightly northwest giving us a brief busst of moderate snow in the midnight to 2 am period on Saturday. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z RGEM is a bit more robust than the rest of the guidance. 0z UKIE/6z GFS would only need a 30-40 miles push to the west to give Toronto a moderate event Friday night. Still have a heartbeat with this one. Wish the northern stream would dig a little more and at least partially phase with the southern wave. We'll see what the 12z RGEM does. If it holds steady or goes even slightly northwest, we're good for 2-4", I'd say, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: We'll see what the 12z RGEM does. If it holds steady or goes even slightly northwest, we're good for 2-4", I'd say, Well...the RGEM is sort of on its own here. Would need other models to come on board with the amount of amplification it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WTF happened at 6z lol? Getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just a nudge to get into 3-6". And I'd take it. I hate going into the deep freeze with bare grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: WTF happened at 6z lol? Getting interesting. Everything a little more amped/west. Would be hilarious if it was a last-minute trend back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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