buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowcaine said: Aside from the energy digging ever so slightly more south, I don't really see many (if any) changes. Yea head fake, looked like the energy was tucking back in to the west slightly more but the surface low wasn't playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Yea head fake, looked like the energy was tucking back in to the west slightly more but the surface low wasn't playing Yep, I got faked out too lol the precip ends even faster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 What a storm to track...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: The GFS was further west, but not any more impressive. At 0z Saturday, the new 0z run has a 1004mb low in VA vs the 12z run with a 1003mb in central West Virginia. Seems like another jog east to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I guess we're a couple days out... here's to hoping that the models are struggling to remedy what happens... but the writing kinda is on the wall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 just can't buy a classic winter storm with an actual low pressure anymore instead now all we get are strong frontal passages and progressive shortwaves. Sorry this isn't really the thread for this but man it's been since march 1 2015 that indianapolis has seen a winter storm warning. After that nothing big at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: What a storm to track...... Brutal, I feel for the north central IN crowd, talk about having the rug pulled out from under you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 What a difference 24 hours makes... courtesy of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Brutal, I feel for the north central IN crowd, talk about having the rug pulled out from under you. I know the feeling man. Looking at that map says it all and explains what I've been griping about in being in Central Indiana. Hoping our luck will change soon. As a winter and snow lover like most of u guys it's been a really tough few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I guess the only folks who never get shafted with storms are those east coast guys and yet they still whine. This is just another regular day in our sub-forum, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: I guess the only folks who never get shafted with storms are those east coast guys and yet they still whine. This is just another regular day in our sub-forum, lol. They have no room to talk. They get a noreaster or sometimes multiple every year it seems like and I mean historic storms like 2-3 feet covering the whole eastern seaboard sometimes. Spoiled man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I guess the only folks who never get shafted with storms are those east coast guys and yet they still whine. This is just another regular day in our sub-forum, lol. I think theirs tend to fall apart farther out instead of 24 or 48 hrs out like us. Also seem to lock in at longer leads as well when they do hit. But they get a lot more fantasy storms that never happen then we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'm really quite surprised at this outcome. I did say back on page 2 or 3 of this thread not to discount the progressive/weak camp until it went away just because weather, but man I really thought a more dynamic system was likely. It seems like there has been a higher false alarm rate in the day 4-5 period the last couple or three winters than before then...maybe the models are better so we put more stock in their solutions 5 days out and it's a perception thing, or maybe they have been over-amping storms. Hemispheric verification scores keep inching up, but I agree with the perception the models have been jumpier lately. And someone take away the Euro's throne while we're at it...some rouge op runs never surprise me, but its ensembles were really shifty too and honestly under-dispersive, the final solution may end up more progressive than all but maybe 2 members had a couple days ago. The EPS is a much superior ensemble to the GEFS, but it's really put up some shockingly bad performances this winter either here or out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 While the band of precip affecting my side of the sub is not the same one as most on here are looking at, The RAP and HRRR continue to fascinate me, and they also fascinate the NWS Forecast office in DSM, the aforementioned runs they state are "Unsettling" in a rare 9pm evening discussion and update. The RAP and HRRR have relentlessly deviated from the larger scale models for several hours and counting with a more easterly solution, promising to smoke the city with up to 5 inches of snow. Globals keep it relatively west with 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The "blizzard corridor" of ND is getting the beginnings of a blizzard/ near blizzard condition, with 1/4 mile visibility. I guess it would have to be 35mph steady winds, instead of just a few gusts above 35mph, but it's difficult to tell the difference if the visibility is 1/4 mile. KGFK 110353Z 35026G34KT M1/4SM R35L/3500V4500FT +SN BLSN VV008 M17/M19 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34035/0303 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP127 P0001 T11721189 $ KGFK 110253Z 34025G32KT 1/4SM R35L/4500V5000FT +SN BLSN VV008 M16/M18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 34035/0200 SLP123 P0001 60003 T11611183 53029 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: Brutal, I feel for the north central IN crowd, talk about having the rug pulled out from under you. No kidding... I feel for everyone outside of the lake belts who have little in the way of season snowfall to date. Nearly record breaking for some I believe. Still only the beginning of January. Plenty of time for the next fai... I mean the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 48 minutes ago, Stebo said: Oh it is a complicated pattern but I also think the models aren't helping themselves. I don't know if maybe things are too detailed now and every little bird fart and gust of wind is getting magnified these days. To the point that there is actually too much going on in the models and you have runaway chaos. Honestly I don't know though, this one is above my pay grade. I am speechless LMFAO! Might be my new sig, Gil would be proud lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: No kidding... I feel for everyone outside of the lake belts who have little in the way of season snowfall to date. Nearly record breaking for some I believe. Still only the beginning of January. Plenty of time for the next fai... I mean the next storm. yah imagine being in chicago, milwaukee, central or northern illinois right now being between these 2 storms that must really suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: No kidding... I feel for everyone outside of the lake belts who have little in the way of season snowfall to date. Nearly record breaking for some I believe. Still only the beginning of January. Plenty of time for the next fai... I mean the next storm. I mean I can vouch to say we got lucky here in Toronto back in December with the clippers and overrunning events with added LES enhancement which really boosted our totals. But I mean, other than that, its been a very disappointing and lacklustre start to winter. With the on-coming thaw, I'm worried some of us will challenge record lows, in terms of snowfall, where surprisingly some of us have broken in recent winters. This winter continues on a theme of crap winters that we've experienced in recent years. Now I can go on with my rant, but that's gotten me no where. It's just disappointing. I've completely lost faith in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 33 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: What a storm to track...... I feel for you guys seeing a double digits snowstorm vanish into the model abyss. Your guys loss is my gain. A few days ago it looked like tonight was going to be a pretty dry Arctic cold front passing over northern mn lucky to eek out a couple inches of snow. Now it looks like widespread 4-6"+ for nearly all of northern mn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'm trying to remember the last amped winter storm on a neg tilted trough that blasted our sub. They are becoming the unicorn of storms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, YHM Supercell said: Was hoping we'd manage down here with this, we usually do better with these gradient snow setups. Looking like a loss even for here. Might be salvageable in eastern Niagara region. Last year was pitiful with exception of the March 14th event. This year started with lots of nickel and dime events, but we need something substantial and alas our chances for this event are pretty well whiffed. Last winter after December was brutal. 15-16 was awful. This winter thus far, aside from a couple of events in December, is pitiful. Might even be a close cut-off in the Niagara region too. Models really backing off on qpf amounts as the theme of progressiveness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I mean I can vouch to say we got lucky here in Toronto back in December with the clippers and overrunning events with added LES enhancement which really boosted our totals. But I mean, other than that, its been a very disappointing and lacklustre start to winter. With the on-coming thaw, I'm worried some of us will challenge record lows, in terms of snowfall, where surprisingly some of us have broken in recent winters. This winter continues on a theme of crap winters that we've experienced in recent years. Now I can go on with my rant, but that's gotten me no where. It's just disappointing. I've completely lost faith in the models. its alright let it out, talking with us helps lol it has for me because everyone else around me hates snow and thinks im weird because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I'm trying to remember the last amped winter storm on a neg tilted trough that blasted our sub. They are becoming the unicorn of storms for us. i dont know maybe jan 5 2014, definite ones before that were dec 26 2012 and jan 31-feb 2 2011 aka GHD probably the coolest and best storm formation ive seen since living in Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Last winter after December was brutal. 15-16 was awful. This winter thus far, aside from a couple of events in December, is pitiful. Might even be a close cut-off in the Niagara region too. Models really backing off on qpf amounts as the theme of progressiveness continues. Yup essentially a miss for Niagara now too unless we do the classic last minute wiggle. Would prefer it stay this way now tho. Can't even manage much with the lead wave other than a complete commute destroyer. Flash freeze going from RN to ZR/IP to SN.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GEM ticked east again as well. Third run in a row now where you can just divide your snow total by 2 and that's the next run. 13" -> 7.5" -> 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowcaine said: GEM ticked east again as well. Third run in a row now where you can just divide your snow total by 2 and that's the next run. 13" -> 7.5" -> 3.5" thats terrible, remember the days when it started conservative only to see each model run beef up qpf up until the storm began? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I can't help but think this ton of warm moist air thats being transported north is really screwing with the models. It's a lot warmer here. 6-9 degrees, than any model had us as early as 12Z. My P&C low has increased 10 degrees since this morning. I dunno, there just seems something fishy's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: I can't help but think this ton of warm moist air thats being transported north is really screwing with the models. It's a lot warmer here. 6-9 degrees, than any model had us as early as 12Z. My P&C low has increased 10 degrees since this morning. I dunno, there just seems something fishy's going on. guess we'll not know until friday lol, keep expectations low and be surprised for good is my thinking at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Getting lost in all the disappointment is the fact that we are 48 hrs out and models are still all over the place on placement of the snow area(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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