Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowcaine said: 3km NAM certainly a bit more interesting than the 12km NAM... still a very close miss for GTA. But I don't think it matters... it's done. When you say miss, do you mean total miss? Not even one inch to freshen up the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12km NAM vs 3km NAM... how is this even the same model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'd guess the 3K is amped up on sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowcaine said: 12km NAM vs 3km NAM... how is this even the same model lol I would take either of these as long as there is not too much sleet or freezing rain. Which means, of course, that this will never happen. This is Central Ohio we are talking about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, snowcaine said: 12km NAM vs 3km NAM... how is this even the same model lol Wow, what a pile of garbage that model run is. 1.9" for Niagara or 16.8"? I wonder what the Japanese and Chinese models are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Wow, what a pile of garbage that model run is. 1.9" for Niagara or 16.8"? I wonder what the Japanese and Chinese models are showing? 3km goes out 60 hours 12km 84, most likely why. I prefer 12km for synoptic 3km for Lake Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 just cant believe how bad these models are 2018 and we just manage this lack of consistency this close to a storm is pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Doesn't feel as bad to me for whatever reason. I've grown sort of numb to it. Same here. As a lifelong Torontonian, I have grown accustomed to busts and the odd pleasant surprise (April 11, 1999, Feb 8, 2001 and March 5, 2001). Back to this upcoming “event”, I’m not expecting anything major and if things somehow improve, it’ll be 2 to 3” at best for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The 3km is ( possibly wrongly) not amped on sleet and thus more snow. Could be on to something with it's tighter grid? I'm grasping at straws I know.... Lol. I wouldn't trust the 3km NAM that closely on a narrow band yet... Only inside 24-36 hours maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, zinski1990 said: just cant believe how bad these models are 2018 and we just manage this lack of consistency this close to a storm is pathetic To be honest this is the thing that really needs to be looked at. I mean we were within 96 hours and had massive waffling. Hell it is still going backwards in some capacities that some of the watches issued will need to be reduced potentially significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 00Z RDPS coming in a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: To be honest this is the thing that really needs to be looked at. I mean we were within 96 hours and had massive waffling. Hell it is still going backwards in some capacities that some of the watches issued will need to be reduced potentially significantly. As Ohio pointed out earlier in the thread there were 3 shortwaves coming together during this storm that caused the storm to be more amped. It looks like it just misses the the phase almost completely or farther east. Tough one for models to get until the last moment I guess? I was always worried about suppression with these types of setups. A coastal takeover the original low is more likely to go farther NW then modeled. This one however is more likely to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 yah it seems like it started happening like this since the GFS and EURO had their supposed "updates" or new improved models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 3k NAM Lmao I won't complain over 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As Ohio pointed out earlier in the thread there were 3 shortwaves coming together during this storm that caused the storm to be more amped. It looks like it just misses the the phase almost completely or farther east. Tough one for models to get until the last moment I guess? I was always worried about suppression with these types of setups. A coastal takeover the original low is more likely to go farther NW then modeled. This one however is more likely to be suppressed. Oh it is a complicated pattern but I also think the models aren't helping themselves. I don't know if maybe things are too detailed now and every little bird fart and gust of wind is getting magnified these days. To the point that there is actually too much going on in the models and you have runaway chaos. Honestly I don't know though, this one is above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I think we got slapped in the face last March too, lol. It's not winter without being let down couple times. Last March was a big slap for Toronto, Hamilton managed to get saved by very efficient lake enhancement plus an initial lake snake. Was one of the more impressive snow gradients I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Preliminary observation of the RGEM, and I can confidently say its over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, YHM Supercell said: Last March was a big slap for Toronto, Hamilton managed to get saved by very efficient lake enhancement plus an initial lake snake. Was one of the more impressive snow gradients I've seen. Don't even get me started on that. It was the biggest slap in the face since the Feb 09 event. This is no exception now. We've grown accustomed to it. Question is, will this be the 4th winter in a row where YYZ fails to reach average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Preliminary observation of the RGEM, and I can confidently say its over for us. Might be ok for Ohio....1001 over s. WV. haven't seen precip maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Might be ok for Ohio....1001 over s. WV. haven't seen precip maps though Ohio looks to be in a good spot for atleast couple inches at the worst case scenario. Goodluck with that. You guys definitely deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Don't even get me started on that. It was the biggest slap in the face since the Feb 09 event. This is no exception now. We've grown accustomed to it. Question is, will this be the 4th winter in a row where YYZ fails to reach average? Was hoping we'd manage down here with this, we usually do better with these gradient snow setups. Looking like a loss even for here. Might be salvageable in eastern Niagara region. Last year was pitiful with exception of the March 14th event. This year started with lots of nickel and dime events, but we need something substantial and alas our chances for this event are pretty well whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 So what the heck happened with Tropical Tidbits? Not a single forecast from the 00z NAM. The NAM/NAM 3-km should have started to update on there an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, YHM Supercell said: Was hoping we'd manage down here with this, we usually do better with these gradient snow setups. Looking like a loss even for here. Might be salvageable in eastern Niagara region. Last year was pitiful with exception of the March 14th event. This year started with lots of nickel and dime events, but we need something substantial and alas our chances for this event are pretty well whiffed. I think Buffalo got 20-25" from that one. One of the biggest synoptic events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Thinking gfs might be an improvement from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Thinking gfs might be an improvement from 18z Aside from the energy digging ever so slightly more south, I don't really see many (if any) changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: So what the heck happened with Tropical Tidbits? Not a single forecast from the 00z NAM. The NAM/NAM 3-km should have started to update on there an hour ago. It does that a couple times a week it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think Buffalo got 20-25" from that one. One of the biggest synoptic events here. Was very impressive. Initial rates on the lake effect band in NE flow were some of the most impressive I've seen. Escarpment upsloping also played a significant role in totals across our area here. Almost a reversal of the Tug Hill area. (To a much less extent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: Thinking gfs might be an improvement from 18z Southern stream slightly more negative tilt at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 0z GFS is even further East. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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