snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, osubrett2 said: What was Feb09? The only storm that month I remember is a warm storm with a huge wind event during Dos-A-Cero at Crew Stadium. Massive bomb like Apps runner, sub 980 IIRC, that most of the globals progged 5-7 days out for Feb 4-6ish, 2009. UKMET was especially aggressive with this bomb. By day 3 it had all but evaporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Massive bomb like Apps runner, sub 980 IIRC, that most of the globals progged 5-7 days out for Feb 4-6ish, 2009. UKMET was especially aggressive with this bomb. By day 3 it had all but evaporated. I still light a candle every Feb 4th in memory of what could have been. I'll never forget Larry Cosgroves emergency breaking column about it. "Columbus to Pittsburgh could be paralyzed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: I still light a candle every Feb 4th in memory of what could have been. I'll never forget Larry Cosgroves emergency breaking column about it. "Columbus to Pittsburgh could be paralyzed". A lot of the big names were on board. DT too from what I remember. Lot of crow was eaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Haven't thrown in the towel yet. If the 0z runs come in lock-step with the 12z, even further east, then I think you can file this away in the fail folder as we'll finally have some run-to-run continuity. However, I think there's a chance the 0z models come back further to the west. We've seen this before where all the models lose the storm only to bring it back, even if it's a shadow of its former glory. To quote Snowstorms, "let's see". Until I see some convective issues or any reason to believe global models are mishandling the pieces at the H5 level, I have a hard time buying the westward shift 18z Nam had. By tomorrow's 12z runs, aside from the kicker, we should have full sampling for all the pieces. This will give us full clarity in regards to the track and strength to a certain extent. I also don't fully buy into the extensive eastward shift we had with last night's 0z runs, which was only further amplified on 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Tricky call around here as to how much precip hangs back/resurges in the cold enough air tomorrow evening/early Friday. Could see any solution ranging from just trace amounts of snow/sleet/freezing rain to something a little more robust like 1-2" with some mix. Window for freezing rain does look very short as the progged profiles rapidly become more conducive for sleet with the refreeze layer getting sufficiently cold, before the entire column goes below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Expecting a tenth or two of rain, with a few flurries possible behind the front. Flash freeze will be the highlight for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 36 hours ago seemed locked in for a solid 4-6. Now 1-2 seems like the best we will do. The main band will be extremely tight and has shifted considerably SE of the metro area. Minneapolis just can't get a decent snow event these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Haven't thrown in the towel yet. If the 0z runs come in lock-step with the 12z, even further east, then I think you can file this away in the fail folder as we'll finally have some run-to-run continuity. However, I think there's a chance the 0z models come back further to the west. We've seen this before where all the models lose the storm only to bring it back, even if it's a shadow of its former glory. To quote Snowstorms, "let's see". Agreed. I haven't thrown in the towel yet, but am feeling deflated. I'm thinking maybe 2-4" for Toronto, maybe 6 " if we're lucky. A far cry from the 10-12" we were looking at just a couple of days ago. By the way, good to see you again Canuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 58 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Massive bomb like Apps runner, sub 980 IIRC, that most of the globals progged 5-7 days out for Feb 4-6ish, 2009. UKMET was especially aggressive with this bomb. By day 3 it had all but evaporated. Oh man, I remember that. We were all crushed. It was a trend setter too, marking the end of a good run of winter weather stretching back to December 2007. It wouldn't be until February 2013 that this new run of bad luck ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Expecting a tenth or two of rain, with a few flurries possible behind the front. Flash freeze will be the highlight for the QCA. If I can't get under the defo band I'd rather have that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: How does the Euro go from a sub 1000mb LP over Detroit to a 1000mb LP over Manhattan in a matter of a few runs at the most. That's easily a 500 mile shift. That's terrible! The progressive northern stream continues through this winter with the exception of the east coast, who have gotten there regular blizzard. I've completely lost faith in the models. **** this winter! I wouldn't say this winter has been crap. Far from it. Snow for the run-up to Christmas, snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 What the 22Z RAP has done is a downright bizarre SE departure even compared to the other SE trending models. I don't expect it to fully verify, but It is the RAP and we're less than 24 hours out. We'll likely be getting measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 If the globals do verify yes maybe most of us won't get thumped but at least they are giving most of the sub maybe 3 inches or more over the next 5-7 days. Sorry, it's the hippie in me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: If the globals do verify yes maybe most of us won't get thumped but at least they are giving most of the sub maybe 3 inches or more over the next 5-7 days. Sorry, it's the hippie in me lol It's hard to come back to earth after glimpsing heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: What the 22Z RAP has done is a downright bizarre SE departure even compared to the other SE trending models. I don't expect it to fully verify, but It is the RAP and we're less than 24 hours out. We'll likely be getting measurable snow Some of the high-res models are smoking the Des Moines area tomorrow. Gonna be a close call. Looks like a pretty good chance you guys get several inches out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Some of the high-res models are smoking the Des Moines area tomorrow. Gonna be a close call. Looks like a pretty good chance you guys get several inches out there. The better it starts to looks down in Iowa the worse up this way. I do hope DSM can thread the needle with that county-wide band, my brother lives down there and is as big a snow weenie as the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said: The better it starts to looks down in Iowa the worse up this way. I do hope DSM can thread the needle with that county-wide band, my brother lives down there and is as big a snow weenie as the rest of us. That sucks. I know areas of eastern NE/northwest IA were looking relatively safe the past few days until it just started inching southeast. This can be a cruel hobby sometimes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, snowcaine said: GFS looks a lot like the Euro. Supressed and east. Honestly, this entire system has been a heartbreaker for us here in Toronto... Every run, so close but not close enough. Have to agree. But that's Toronto for you. Whether it be the Raptors, Blue Jays, Maple Leafs or snowstorms, we seem to get teased into believing that something big is going to happen, only for us to be disappointed. I personally never bought into the 12"+ hype for Toronto. Storms like that here, are pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That sucks. I know areas of eastern NE/northwest IA were looking relatively safe the past few days until it just started inching southeast. This can be a cruel hobby sometimes lol. Yeah it can be, but with the heartbreak comes the fun and fascination of the chase. At least I still get the cold which I actually do enjoy quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 I think somebody is going to get a decent amount of sleet. Maybe a corridor of 1"+ with a much broader swath of amounts under 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Agreed. I haven't thrown in the towel yet, but am feeling deflated. I'm thinking maybe 2-4" for Toronto, maybe 6 " if we're lucky. A far cry from the 10-12" we were looking at just a couple of days ago. By the way, good to see you again Canuck! Thanks OB. I'll still pop by for the big dogs and threats thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 For most in this region, I suspect the event will be rain changing to sleet, with icing on roads, then a skiff of snow on top of that as temperatures fall. Average snowfall amounts will probably be less than an inch or 2 cms. But the main impact of this event will be iced up roads and sidewalks. Flash freeze warnings are possible, as the event is mainly overnight, which will accelerate the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I never bought into this one. My faith in SW ejecting storms is very low. All we will have to show from it is grass and crusty northern Michigan snowpack. Bring back the clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: For most in this region, I suspect the event will be rain changing to sleet, with icing on roads, then a skiff of snow on top of that as temperatures fall. Average snowfall amounts will probably be less than an inch or 2 cms. But the main impact of this event will be iced up roads and sidewalks. Flash freeze warnings are possible, as the event is mainly overnight, which will accelerate the changeover. Sounds like we need one of those energy peak thingys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 00z NAM coming in slightly weaker at hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Northern stream looks a tick slower this run, might be a hair left of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Northern stream looks a tick slower this run, might be a hair left of 18z run. Agree probably coming west a bit. Does it stay with an amped solution ? We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Looks to me like its going towards the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Looks to me like its going towards the globals Yep, has that ugly elongated look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 00Z NAM looking a lot like its 12Z run, which is further east... not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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