hlcater Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It will be a lot more interesting if the NAM still has this solution at this time tomorrow. That is when I would heavily weight it. To give it some credit, it has been doing very well lately with the stronger systems on the east coast. (As im sure many know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18z rgem has 1005 low in same position as NAM (1002), at 48hrs.... fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 come on 3k nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 We have a winter storm watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Going to come down to the mesoscale models vs the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Not going to get my hopes up too much, but inside of 60 and especially 48 hours the NAMs did the best with the recent blizzard on the east coast. It is something to watch for sure as they along with other mesoscale models will clue in on any small nuance that the globals are missing. Again not going to hang my hat on it just yet, but there is still a bit of room to correct back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: I think it has...and that's not being a weenie...I mean hell there really is no further it can go in minimalization. I don't know if you saw the 12zukie but it also weakens the low into two waves as it comes up. Looked a lot like the euro surface map around hr 60-72 The most dramatic swing west to east among all the models for the storm within 24-26 hours. Doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 What will make or break this storm is how fast the cold air gets to your backyard. Do we waste 60% of the precip as sleet or will there be a faster changeover than expected? Thinking back to these type of storms (rain changing to snow), probably more often than not the cold air gets in quicker than expected once you go from liquid to frozen. Dec04 was a classic example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM weenie map. Amounts are Kuchera ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Will be interesting to see a storm track directly over the apps... really don’t see that happening. This model spread is unreal... OP’s are all mostly east while some ensembles (short range) are tracking a sub 1000mb juicy low directly NNE into central OH before drifting northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: What will make or break this storm is how fast the cold air gets to your backyard. Do we waste 60% of the precip as sleet or will there be a faster changeover than expected? Thinking back to these type of storms (rain changing to snow), probably more often than not the cold air gets in quicker than expected once you go from liquid to frozen. Dec04 was a classic example. I could definitely see the cold air coming in a bit quicker, especially near the surface. Models often struggle a bit to keep up in rapid advection/tight gradient scenarios, so the drop to freezing behind the front could be a bit quicker than progged. One fly in the ointment for that would be if temps significantly overperform in the warm sector, which would obviously make it a farther tumble to get below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Looks like 18zgfs moved closer to the euro than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This is trying so hard to nail the east coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS looks a lot like the Euro. Supressed and east. Honestly, this entire system has been a heartbreaker for us here in Toronto... Every run, so close but not close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Considering where I live, I'd take my 4.7" on the GFS and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Main s/w energy partially passed over northern Mexico on 12z run, where RAOB coverage is not as dense. Maybe that accounted for the weaker/progressive trend on the 12z models? I don't know. Straw grasping time folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Main s/w energy partially passed over northern Mexico on 12z run, where RAOB coverage is not as dense. Maybe that accounted for the weaker/progressive trend on the 12z models? I don't know. Straw grasping time folks. 18z is almost fully sampled, so the GFS siding with the Euro is pretty crippling. The NAM is being ballsy though and RDPS looks similar... But never good to be in the GEM/NAM camp over the ECMWF/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Seriously wondering if this could go the way of Feb09.....just in slow motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Considering where I live, I'd take my 4.7" on the GFS and run. Couldn’t agree more! Central Ohioans need to embrace this considering how hard it is to get snow around here. Maybe, just maybe, our 1st WSWatch in quite a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: Seriously wondering if this could go the way of Feb09.....just in slow motion. It’s just odd to me how some short range guidance is beginning to show a low track that we were expecting a couple of days ago and the OP’s are so much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I hope this isn't just wishful thinking, but the 18z NAM keeps major hopes alive for TOL, CLE, CMH, CVG, DAY, Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Couldn’t agree more! Central Ohioans need to embrace this considering how hard it is to get snow around here. Maybe, just maybe, our 1st WSWatch in quite a long time. I'm hugging it with tough love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, snowcaine said: 18z is almost fully sampled, so the GFS siding with the Euro is pretty crippling. The NAM is being ballsy though and RDPS looks similar... But never good to be in the GEM/NAM camp over the ECMWF/GFS Unless things have changed, off-hour runs (6z, 18z) don't digest RAOB data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This is out to hour 60 with the sleet removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Unless things have changed, off-hour runs (6z, 18z) don't digest RAOB data. Ahh I forgot about that. Strictly 12z and 00z IIRC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Whether we get salvage snow will come down to whether the H5/H7 lows amplify/close off like the NAM/RGEM show or whether this is just a glorified FROPA like the GFS/EURO show. I guess the good news it'll only take a 50 miles shift back to the west even on the EURO/GFS to get something appreciable, if not significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 FWIW 18z RGEM looks more like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The 18z NAM/RGEM have a little less northern stream influence and a much more robust southern stream shortwave (closed off at 500mb) than the global models, which is what allows their stronger/much wetter solution. There are reasons this is possible, including the strong temp gradient the storm will be developing on and ample feed of moist/unstable air from the Gulf, which can cause a positive feedback in a developing storm and allow it to strengthen. But, the overwhelming trend on the global models can't be ignored, and you wonder if the meso models are just giving some false hope for a more NW solution like they often do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 39 minutes ago, snowcaine said: GFS looks a lot like the Euro. Supressed and east. Honestly, this entire system has been a heartbreaker for us here in Toronto... Every run, so close but not close enough. Haven't thrown in the towel yet. If the 0z runs come in lock-step with the 12z, even further east, then I think you can file this away in the fail folder as we'll finally have some run-to-run continuity. However, I think there's a chance the 0z models come back further to the west. We've seen this before where all the models lose the storm only to bring it back, even if it's a shadow of its former glory. To quote Snowstorms, "let's see". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 31 minutes ago, buckeye said: Seriously wondering if this could go the way of Feb09.....just in slow motion. What was Feb09? The only storm that month I remember is a warm storm with a huge wind event during Dos-A-Cero at Crew Stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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