buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: Boy this thread died quick. Holy smokes you know the board has been down for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I think we're about to get NAM'd again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 the euro eps members are pathetic. A few moderate (6-10") hits thru Ohio.... a couple further west and further east...but the vast majority look like dusting to a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I think we're about to get NAM'd again. I hope so but back to where it was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I think we're about to get NAM'd again. It does look juicier than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Well looks like the only thing that’s guaranteed is another shot of frigid polar air to reinforce my bitter disappointment in this winters weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I would laugh hard if the runs this evening and tonight all went back to what they were consistently showing before last nights let down. Of course I'd be excited but it be too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, zinski1990 said: I would laugh hard if the runs this evening and tonight all went back to what they were consistently showing before last nights let down. Of course I'd be excited but it be too funny That would be the most epic model fail ever. That would even beat the infamous Feb'09 vanishing app bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: the euro eps members are pathetic. A few moderate (6-10") hits thru Ohio.... a couple further west and further east...but the vast majority look like dusting to a couple of inches The only consolation I can think of on those is they were just terrible on the East Coast storm last week...way too weak/dry/east until barely 24 hours out...but considering this is part of a larger trend they were quite concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Living in Indy can be such a gut punch with winter storms I swear. Sorry about my rambling but ive seen many storms like this where just south and east get the big snow when indy gets like 1-2 inches if that. March 2008 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm.And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm. And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well. . Yep what happened to the days when the EURO was the most reliable model especially for winter? The GFS used to cave towards it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Chicago Storm said: What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm. And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well. . Exactly and I always thought that this type of storm set up was in the euro wheelhouse. The IWX nws office must feel cheated on the way they hugged and slobbered all over the earlier euro runs and trashed the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The 18Z NAM is also a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: 18z nam a bit more amped. Definitely further NW with the precip shield. Unusual for a storm to track along the apps. It's usually either west or east of the apps. We'll see how this transpires through 12z tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Exactly and I always thought that this type of storm set up was in the euro wheelhouse. The IWX nws office must feel cheated on the way they hugged and slobbered all over the earlier euro runs and trashed the gfs. I also think their Special Weather Statement last night might have jinxed us all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 There's still a chance this one can pull a 12/26/12 (it also showed a major storm before a massive east / weaker shift and then it came back somewhat in the last 48 hours), but anything close to what the models showed before is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 ILN unimpressed: ..... All in all, snow amounts will be tempered, especially being dependent on how fast precipitation changes to all snow. In addition, the period of strongest frontogenetic forcing is more short lived, along with a small window of vertical motion intersecting the favored dendritic growth zone (- 12 C to -18 C), which will result in lower snowfall amounts. Given these reasons, did not feel confident enough to go with a Winter Storm Watch for a part of my area in the 4th and 5th period of the forecast. We will likely end up having at least an advisory everywhere, but questionable if we reach low warning criteria in parts of the area (4" in 12 hours versus 6` in 12 hours south versus north). So, latest thinking is about 3 to 5 inches for roughly the northwest two thirds of the CWFA (with near 4 inches being the mid point), with 2 to 4 inches the remainder of the southeast with 3 inches being the mid point. It should finally be noted that the pressure gradient will pick up Friday into Friday night with some gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range, which will cause some drifting and local blowing of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Yes NW about 30 miles. This is gonna be a 24 hour prior nail biter for these parts if the 12Z Euro hangs out on its own. I've noticed on all of the models the orientation and strength of the opposing ridges is very much in flux. How much of this is/could be due to the models not handling latent heat transfer well is above my feeble weather brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM 3km 18z is a bit further west and stronger with the LP, with the precip shield further NW as a result. H5 pattern slightly more defined on the 3km vs 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Man I hope the NAM shifts just a tad more west on tonights run. Definitely looked better on 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM's traditional happy hour is 18z. This might be the most fun we have with it for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 It will be a lot more interesting if the NAM still has this solution at this time tomorrow. That is when I would heavily weight it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 So is the 3km NAM just as bad as the 12km NAM. It is painting a completely different picture, and should not be discounted in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: So is the 3km NAM just as bad as the 12km NAM. It is painting a completely different picture, and should not be discounted in my opinion. I pulled it out once to try to use as a defense witness and was pummeled on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 you know the board has been down for awhileNo haha supervisor on a night shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm. And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well. . Yeah, not the finest hour. Question now is whether it has gone too far in the minimization direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Yes NW about 30 miles. This is gonna be a 24 hour prior nail biter for these parts if the 12Z Euro hangs out on its own. I've noticed on all of the models the orientation and strength of the opposing ridges is very much in flux. How much of this is/could be due to the models not handling latent heat transfer well is above my feeble weather brain I feel you, east of you in eastern Delaware county/Muncie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah, not the finest hour. Question now is whether it has gone too far in the minimization direction. I think it has...and that's not being a weenie...I mean hell there really is no further it can go in minimalization. I don't know if you saw the 12zukie but it also weakens the low into two waves as it comes up. Looked a lot like the euro surface map around hr 60-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: So is the 3km NAM just as bad as the 12km NAM. It is painting a completely different picture, and should not be discounted in my opinion. The 3km has a better handle on the dynamics, LP positioning and H5 pattern than the 12km within 60 hours. It's a higher resolution of the 12km Nam. Would be very important in nailing down precip quantities once we get within 36 hours as it should have a better handle on the abundant moisture plume from the Atlantic and Gulf. I believe it did fairly decent in the east coast blizzard as opposed to the operational models. But don't quote me on that, haha. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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