Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: The original question by the other poster was not very specific. When there's not a storm (especially a modeled huge one like this), what model had which solution at which time tends to not be remembered as well. There's been plenty of times when the Euro has shifted to the GFS... certainly the case if you include patterns in the long range, etc. As far as what you're saying, the February 09 phantom bomb may be a candidate? That one started unraveling right around 4 days out iirc. I was away when that happened i do believe? Near the start of the month correct? My brother passed on.. sigh So yeah i kinda forgot about that. Don't even recall what any of the models showed? Did they all show a bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This hasn’t just shifted east, it FLEW east. Almost comical. That clipper early next week though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Will be quite a rapid temp drop as this front moves through. Token ice. I take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I don't know if anybody really cares about this, but here's something about the 1st wave of the storm. The 00z NAM has 9" of snow just east of Minneapolis/St. Paul, with an area of sleet near this axis also. Currently the NWS offices are not calling for any areas of 9"+ near Minneapolis. The 00z GFS also has 10-11" max (Kuchera ratio) near the MN/IA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Harry said: I never recall this model showing a storm hitting like it did two nights in a row inside of day 5 and just about lose it! We have been doing this alot of years and i cannot recall it? Feel free to point out whatever i may have forgotten. Oh well! Pretty wild to say the least. February 2009 phantom bomb (another apps runner I might add)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Chicago Storm wins this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GRR has punted Confidence has become much stronger that we will miss out on much of, if not the entire snowstorm that will be ongoing Fri night into Saturday. Good model consensus now exists in taking the heavier swath of snow now through Ohio. This is the result of the developing upper low digging a little further south, and the sfc front/upper jet being a tad farther east when the wave lifts NE. This will result in our area being cold once again, with some lake effect closer to the lakeshore with an almost due N low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 However DTX is not giving up on a western track yet By the time the upper level energy comes out of the Rockies and boots the Gulf Coast Storm System to the northeast, 6 HR max 500 MB height fall center forecasted to track through central/western PA Saturday morning, a bit too far East. Thus, NAM and GFS advertising a complete miss to southeast Michigan with respect to deformation snow, with 00z Canadian advertising just a glancing blow across far eastern areas as low tracks up the spine of the Appalachians. Bulk of GFS ensemble members even farther east than operational run. With such an amplified upper level ridge over the Atlantic and Pacific energy not moving onshore to the Pacific Northwest until Thursday morning, still not totally willing to give up on a stronger/farther west solution just yet, although the 00z EURO and UKMET have given up ground as well and shifted farther east. Also, don`t like that strongly positive tilted trough axis swing tracking through Quebec/Ontario, which will factor into the equation as well, and could force the system to the East coast quicker. If synoptic snow does not materialize, still could see some lake effect off of Lake Huron on Saturday, be mainly confined to Thumb region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 KIND update as of 0400 Short term focus is a potential high impact winter storm Friday into Saturday. The responsible upper level trough has only now come onshore to be sampled by the RAOB network, and significant spread in model solutions continues to create a lower confidence forecast. The GFS in recent runs has been somewhat of an outlier with a far more progressive and easterly solution than the bulk of the remaining model suite, with the Euro (at least until the latest run) and the Canadian among the more consistent solutions, clustering around a more developed, slower, and thus further west solution, which would generally be expected with a system that looks to take on a fairly strong negative tilt. Per national and regional coordination discussions, continue to favor a somewhat more westerly consensus track. Thanks to WPC for the coordination call tonight. At this time, thoughts are to expect high potential for rain Thursday into Thursday evening, with transition to a wintry mix beginning from the northwest late Thursday night and overspreading the area into Friday morning, with colder air continuing the transition to snow by Friday evening. This would likely mean some sleet and perhaps some light icing from freezing rain prior to the changeover to snow. A general model consensus places the axis of highest snowfall amounts over the eastern half of the forecast area and into ILN and LMK`s Indiana counties as well. Interestingly, this aligns fairly well with some of the stronger analogs for this event, including late December 2004 and early January 1996, which were both significant snowfall producers for the region. While it remains somewhat soon to start nailing down specific ranges given the model uncertainty, the eastern half or so of central Indiana looks at this time to be in a region favorable for warning criteria or higher snowfall amounts, although again, small changes in model solutions could significantly shift this axis. Main message at this point remains that there is strong potential for a significant high impact winter storm somewhere in the region Friday into Saturday, and residents of central Indiana should be prepared for this potential as details hopefully become clearer over the next 24 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 FWIW the 06Z GFS came a bit west and increased totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16 hours ago, UMB WX said: east has been the play for yrs. compromise the trash together good luck with the les - baum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 RGEM at 48 looks like it would play ball if extrapolated. Wouldn't be as/any further east of the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: RGEM at 48 looks like it would play ball if extrapolated. Wouldn't be as/any further east of the 0z GFS. Last night's 0z runs only furthered my skepticism, so until I see some consistency, I fail to remain optimistic. Haven't ever been a fan of these secondary waves riding along the initial front as they're extremely volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 hours ago, UMB WX said: good luck with the les - baum Ha. Literally just finished reading the whole thread starting when the 00Z NAM came in. Pure unadulterated entertainment. If nothing else this storm has revived my faith in the board. Great analysis, model hugging, sniping, IMBY, meltdowns, AND A BOARD OUTAGE...etc. All remeniscent of the glory days. Here's hoping Buckeye, and Cincy area get a nice storm. IMHO they've gone the longest without a decent storm. Me, I don't put much faith in a lake induced event, and probably stings a little less if it's 350 miles to the SE versus 100 miles. And Chicago Storm did win the thread as he usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Guess we needed a time out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, DAFF said: Guess we needed a time out. . What happened? System overload or did everyone just give up? 12z GFS worst yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Lol at the models. Just lol. Will see if we can get some with the change over and flash freeze Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 All the bright colors sure have disappeared as the system has changed from a wound-up juicer to a more progressive wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro with no closed surface low until it hits the mid-atlantic.....What. An. Epic. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 So I live in Western Kentucky and it is showing that we are dead center of the worst part right now. All the local meteorologist are predicting 1-2 inches of snow even though I've seen ALOT higher amounts from this site as well as others. They are saying they believe it's going to be ALOT of sleet for us. What do you all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 How does the Euro go from a sub 1000mb LP over Detroit to a 1000mb LP over Manhattan in a matter of a few runs at the most. That's easily a 500 mile shift. That's terrible! The progressive northern stream continues through this winter with the exception of the east coast, who have gotten there regular blizzard. I've completely lost faith in the models. **** this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 so 3" on the euro, (and we're in the 'sweet spot' for it too lol) 6" or so on the ggem and gfs 10" (lol) on the nam Looks like a low end warning? Maybe 4-7" might be the call now barring any continued weakening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 On to the next one that doesn't exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I have more confidence in the short term sref and rpm than the crappy gfs euro and nam right now. At least they are more consistent even being high res models. Still not giving up here in Indy. Wouldnt shock me to see the models go back west later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 ARW and NMM were more bullish with hanging onto precip farther west. Going to cling for a weenie consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 IND gonna issue a watch mentioning that amounts may not get there but will do it based on impact and public awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, zinski1990 said: I have more confidence in the short term sref and rpm than the crappy gfs euro and nam right now. At least they are more consistent even being high res models. Still not giving up here in Indy. Wouldnt shock me to see the models go back west later lol Just make sure you look at the distribution of members to assess and not simply the mean, where a few wackjobs can skew the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: I have more confidence in the short term sref and rpm than the crappy gfs euro and nam right now. At least they are more consistent even being high res models. Still not giving up here in Indy. Wouldnt shock me to see the models go back west later lol If there was going to be anything more than a bump west I think the euro would have shown it at 12z. Instead it went the other way and you can barely make out a closed low on the surface map at 72 hrs. Honestly I was rooting for a stronger system even with the risks that comes with. I'd rather take my chances with a more dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just make sure you look at the distribution of members to assess and not simply the mean, where a few wackjobs can skew the mean. dont get me started lol at least the mean for indy on the latest sref was like 6 inches but I saw some over a foot and one 20 inches lol never know i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Boy this thread died quick. Holy smokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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