vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: More disturbing is the fact that its only as low as 1009 by the time it makes it to the coast. Well, the good news for me tonight is the ice storm potential for us has lessened. Man that's something I do not want to relive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Well, the good news for me tonight is the ice storm potential for us has lessened. Man that's something I do not want to relive again. Still got the euro! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Lol at the nam. The Rodney Dangerfield of the models. I forgot it gave me 24" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: Lol at the nam. The Rodney Dangerfield of the models. I forgot it gave me 24" tonight. Don't you miss the days of the ole double e rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 FWIW... looking through the 0z GEFS ensembles - many of them are further west with the precip shield. Should take the burn away for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The run to run model shifts with this setup have been quite significant, shows how sensitive it is to small changes in initial conditions that get carried out through the runs. Seems pretty likely that we're out of the game out this way barring a huge change but for areas east of here that we're in the prime big dog threat zone until tonight's 00z runs, there's still room for this to come back. The secondary Pacific wave being sampled tomorrow should finally clear up how this is gonna go. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GEFS is making me think it will correct west later. And also it will make people calm down hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The run to run model shifts with this setup have been quite significant, shows how sensitive it is to small changes in initial conditions that get carried out through the runs. Seems pretty likely that we're out of the game out this way barring a huge change but for areas east of here that we're in the prime big dog threat zone until tonight's 00z runs, there's still room for this to come back. The secondary Pacific wave being sampled tomorrow should finally clear up how this is gonna go. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk In all my years of doing this i have never seen anything like this especially with the euro. Can never recall a single time it showed what it did last night and the night before inside of day 5 and simply vanish or miss as the GFS and others would suggest! Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Speaking of euro! It is running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z Euro staying with the east consensus track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 euro has caved.. No west jump tonight.. Congrats Ohio folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: 0z Euro staying with the east consensus track wise. When is the last time the euro caved to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: When is the last time the euro caved to the GFS? Happens more often than people remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 SLP track is certainly east... but precip shield extends west. 1033 high sitting right over Lake Superior this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Northern stream wins again. I feel bad for those who have been shafted but man I can't wait for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Northern stream wins again. I feel bad for those who have been shafted but man I can't wait for spring. Look at the difference in the height field there between tonight's and last night's 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, Harry said: Speaking of euro! It is running! Let's just say, if this Euro run were a person on Tinder, it'd be a hard swipe to the left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Look at the difference in the height field there between tonight's and last night's 00z runs Oh it is insane, feel like I just wasted several days chasing nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Intrigued to see tomorrow’s runs after 18/21z. (Full sampling of second wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Officially punting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Gosh, at this point I better take the 5-7" the Euro shows and run...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: Intrigued to see tomorrow’s runs after 18/21z. Oh I will wait until then as well, but seeing the northern stream rearing its ugly head is one that will be hard to change away. Lack of data being added to the models from Alaska is really killing their ability to model the atmosphere in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Happens more often than people remember. I never recall this model showing a storm hitting like it did two nights in a row inside of day 5 and just about lose it! We have been doing this alot of years and i cannot recall it? Feel free to point out whatever i may have forgotten. Oh well! Pretty wild to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, OHweather said: Gosh, at this point I better take the 5-7" the Euro shows and run...wow. Still a respectable storm for central OH up to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: Oh it is insane, feel like I just wasted several days chasing nothing. I almost thought I was looking at the wrong model/run. Had to double/triple check. 00z Euro definitely a big eastward shift/move toward *relative* mediocrity (compared to what it has been advertising) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Oh I will wait until then as well, but seeing the northern stream rearing its ugly head is one that will be hard to change away. Lack of data being added to the models from Alaska is really killing their ability to model the atmosphere in the US. This right here! I doubt it comes back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Harry said: I never recall this model showing a storm hitting like it did two nights in a row inside of day 5 and just about lose it! We have been doing this alot of years and i cannot recall it? Feel free to point out whatever i may have forgotten. Oh well! Pretty wild to say the least. The original question by the other poster was not very specific. When there's not a storm (especially a modeled huge one like this), what model had which solution at which time tends to not be remembered as well. There's been plenty of times when the Euro has shifted to the GFS... certainly the case if you include patterns in the long range, etc. As far as what you're saying, the February 09 phantom bomb may be a candidate? That one started unraveling right around 4 days out iirc. Would have to think more for examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I almost thought I was looking at the wrong model/run. Had to double/triple check. 00z Euro definitely a big eastward shift/move toward *relative* mediocrity (compared to what it has been advertising) I mean it is insane how much has changed in one model run almost to the point that it isn't believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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