Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Suppression from the north has been the story so far this winter. Why change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Most disheartening map I've seen this evening is the ggem snow output. It kind of says this ain't gonna be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Well, the GFS just took me from 12" to 2". GN...going to bed. Winter's over...zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Most disheartening map I've seen this evening is the ggem snow output. Big step down from 12z overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I’m willing to bet the Euro will be atleast a bit east and more suppressed. One thing most of the 00z guidance harps on this evening, is the strength of that high over the northern Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 just demoralizing lol, what have us in indiana done to keep missing these storms the past few years? Nothing goes our way anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I saw the temps get pummeled next week on the 12Z runs, perked my ears. Went from 30's and 40's next Thursday to teens and sub zero. Big Daddy PV ain't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: I’m willing to bet the Euro will be atleast a bit east and more suppressed. You have not followed many systems have you or even this one it seems? 00z runs have been further nw while 12z is further se.. It is the one continuing theme with that model for the past few years. Thing is which will cave the 00z or 12z? One usually does and i am not sure to be honest? Has been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This is all typical of the Midwest winter. First low goes far north and gives us warmth and destroys the snowpack for those of us who have one...and then another low completely misses us to the east. Weak systems moving in on a fast flow and lake effect snow showers it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: just demoralizing lol, what have us in indiana done to keep missing these storms the past few years? Nothing goes our way anymore Didn’t you guys do well during the last clipper? Like seriously come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Can y'all save the cliff jumping for another day or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Can y'all save the cliff jumping for another day or so? With THESE models it is still too early for that. Plus i think there is a thread for that anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can y'all save the cliff jumping for another day or so? You mean when the east coast is getting the snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Can y'all save the cliff jumping for another day or so? Lol, think some of us know that. But when the Man's been stepping on your neck and the slightest glimmer of hope gets squashed, there's gonna be some irrational protests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Harry said: With THESE models it is still too early for that. Plus i think there is a thread for that anyways? I don't know Harry, it's not like its 4 days out...we're down to inside 72 hours, it would be a model whiplash like I've never seen for this to go back to some of those IN to MI blasts 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: You mean when the east coast is getting the snowstorm? This won't fail like that. If it fails it'll simply be a result of petering out in a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I don't know Harry, it's not like its 4 days out...we're down to inside 72 hours, it would be a model whiplash like I've never seen for this to go back to some of those IN to MI blasts This won't fail like that. If it fails it'll simply be a result of petering out in a progressive flow. Well that will be something we can all celebrate together. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, blackrock said: This is all typical of the Midwest winter. First low goes far north and gives us warmth and destroys the snowpack for those of us who have one...and then another low completely misses us to the east. Weak systems moving in on a fast flow and lake effect snow showers it is... Just goes to show how historic GHD 2011 was. Not sure if we'll ever see something quite like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I don't know Harry, it's not like its 4 days out...we're down to inside 72 hours, it would be a model whiplash like I've never seen for this to go back to some of those IN to MI blasts This won't fail like that. If it fails it'll simply be a result of petering out in a progressive flow. If it was a few years ago i would agree but these models have gotten me a few times especially lately inside of 72 hrs.. If the euro caves then yeah it is a done deal. Either way good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Still gonna have to keep an eye on how much moisture rides up post frontal and how quickly/deeply the cold air undercuts... in the early stages of all this. These maps are valid at just 60 hours and there is a big difference in the ice potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, cmillzz said: Just goes to show how historic GHD 2011 was. Not sure if we'll ever see something quite like that again. Where in Indiana are you? This area did better with both GHD II 2015 and Jan 4/5 2014! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 One thought is there is full sampling of the upper low that will cause the first storm for the 0z runs, and maybe a bit of partial sampling for the next shortwave that will eventually become the "threat" we're watching. Perhaps that caused the changes we've seen so far. That said, we won't get full sampling of that second shortwave until 0z Thursday, so I wouldn't give up hope for some bump back stronger/northwest until then. We don't get sampling of the "kicker" until 0z Friday, though by then I'm not sure how much of a difference it'll make, but could be small changes. Another concern is the role convection plays, which will always give the models trouble. Hard to guess which way it'll influence the storm ultimately, though the GFS/NAM/CMC all have a little jump east towards convection over the south which is somewhat fishy. Chicago is probably pretty much out of this, but IN/MI still have some hope to cling to for the time being. I'm becoming more optimistic locally, though the risk for a more southeast/moderate storm that doesn't produce huge totals has clearly increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth came out in full force this evening. You would almost swear the big day was tomorrow and we didn't have two more full days of model data and flip flopping to stress over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z Ukie, judging by the maps on meteocentre, has shifted east as well. An east shift seems to be the consensus among 0z runs thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: The weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth came out in full force this evening. You would almost swear the big day was tomorrow and we didn't have two more full days of model data and flip flopping to stress over! Haven’t heard much in the way of that quite yet.. just wait a day or two haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 0z Ukie, judging by the maps on meteocentre, has shifted east as well. An east shift seems to be the consensus among 0z runs thus far. I was worried about suppression. I think Boston is going to get hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was worried about suppression. I think Boston is going to get hit again. More disturbing is the fact that its only as low as 1009 by the time it makes it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Still a good hit for SE IN and central Ohio folks this run, they've been pretty starved too. At least we may still have the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: More disturbing is the fact that its only as low as 1009 by the time it makes it to the coast. 11 more mb higher and its a 1020 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 11 more mb higher and its a 1020 high That actually made me laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 more mb higher and its a 1020 high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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