buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Euro solution is where I would have put my original guess. Good hit for nw OH and central IN. Being 4-5 days out we're at least still in the game but man that would be one hell of a heartbreak storm for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Indianapolis special. Southern Illinois and Central Indiana get destroyed. Notable shift east of 00z. Taking the 12z runs as a whole, we have the GEM/Euro on the western side and the GFS/Ukie on the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A lot of consistency between GFS/GDPS/ECMWF with the 12Z suite... all showing the snow swath extending from southern Indiana to Central/Northern Ohio to SEMI to Southern Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The Euro still does go NNE from MS until it gets to OH then it turns east like the GEM, maybe this will have an erratic track, either way both eventually hit a brick wall with the high pressing in. Probably don't need that any stronger or else this might slide more W to E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WestCoaster said: A lot of consistency between GFS/GDPS/ECMWF with the 12Z suite... all showing the snow swath extending from southern Indiana to Central/Northern Ohio to SEMI to Southern Ontario I wouldn't necessarily include the GFS with the latter 2, but maybe it's just me. I guess it's not terrible agreement for 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The gradient is insane on the euro. 2" in mby then a foot 20 miles nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Indy just gets crushed on the 12z Euro. Probably a 2 foot storm there verbatim, if not a bit more. Big dogs have missed the city proper every which way over the years, so this would be something to see. Regardless of location, the main takeaway at this point is the continued consistency for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, buckeye said: The gradient is insane on the euro. 2" in mby then a foot 20 miles nw. That is unreal! Hell, I’m 10 miles a tad north of west from you so that means 6 inches right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: That is unreal! Hell, I’m 10 miles a tad north of west from you so that means 6 inches right? Lol its actually tighter than that because looking again, the 2" in mby includes the slop we got this morning. So really it's like Westerville/Delaware gets an inch and Marysville gets a foot lol. I might need a straight jacket and drool bucket if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 A bit of a no duh post but if you're farther west, you want the initial wave as far west as possible with a slowdown in the cold frontal passage. Just the opposite if you're east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: its actually tighter than that because looking again, the 2" in mby includes the slop we got this morning. So really it's like Westerville/Delaware gets an inch and Marysville gets a foot lol. I might need a straight jacket and drool bucket if that happens Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wouldn't necessarily include the GFS with the latter 2, but maybe it's just me. I guess it's not terrible agreement for 4 days out. Comparing the GFS and GEM below for the snow swath, it's pretty decent agreement 4-5 days out if you ask me... although I guess the exception is your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A handy little bit of advice offered from a met at IWX that I think most of us already know, but something to keep in mind: "Based on our extensive in-house research, negatively tilted troughs always end up west of model based track typically from 1 to 1 1/2 degrees. That said, H7 low track indicated from greenville KY to sandusky OH would be shifted 50-75 miles west. Ensemble based tracks evenly split between west and east but composite EC/GEM very close to yesterday's composite while GFS continues to oscillate back and forth. I'd bank on it at this point." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 It looks like the GFS bouncing around seems to have little bearing on Toronto's snow totals from this system. Seems to have a much bigger impact for the western part of this subforum. Despite bouncing around, the last 6 runs of the GFS have the following storm totals for Toronto: 8/12Z: 21" 8/06Z: 18" 8/00Z: 15" 7/18Z: 22" 7/12Z: 11" 7/06Z: 16" Even the GEM looks promising: 8/12Z: 14" 8/00Z: 20" 7/12Z: 14" Any of those totals would be the best snow I've received since February 2013... probably a Top 2 event for the last 10 years. I'm sure disappointment will find its way in over the next few days, but I am so happy just to have something to track... it has been so long since I have felt excited to track anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 euro has a significant icestorm for the i-71 corridor.... .5 to an inch of freezing rain it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: euro has a significant icestorm for the i-71 corridor.... .5 to an inch of freezing rain it appears. Not gonna take much ice to be a problem especially with winds kicking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A handy little bit of advice offered from a met at IWX that I think most of us already know, but something to keep in mind: "Based on our extensive in-house research, negatively tilted troughs always end up west of model based track typically from 1 to 1 1/2 degrees. That said, H7 low track indicated from greenville KY to sandusky OH would be shifted 50-75 miles west. Ensemble based tracks evenly split between west and east but composite EC/GEM very close to yesterday's composite while GFS continues to oscillate back and forth. I'd bank on it at this point."Did he go to Penn State? In college the meteorology teacher I had went there and told me this exact same thing. I’d have to imagine however the dry slotting and convection on the south side of a such a storm may cut model totals a tad. Almost always with these lows Toledo and it’s suburbs deliver, but the second you get east of the city it drops off fast. Could really be an event where you see that area off to the west that’s very rural shutting things down for potentially a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, buckeye said: euro has a significant icestorm for the i-71 corridor.... .5 to an inch of freezing rain it appears. Yeah, hard to read 6-hour interval texts, but its rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, osubrett2 said: Yeah, hard to read 6-hour interval texts, but its rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow. I was using the wxbell freezing rain maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: I was using the wxbell freezing rain maps Yeah, that's better than text. Though their algorithms for winter precip accumulation always seems off. Debating on getting the free trial for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Hey Buck....what does the Euro have for Dayton? You talked about the NW gradient....how about us in the Western part of the state? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 56 minutes ago, IWXwx said: A handy little bit of advice offered from a met at IWX that I think most of us already know, but something to keep in mind: "Based on our extensive in-house research, negatively tilted troughs always end up west of model based track typically from 1 to 1 1/2 degrees. That said, H7 low track indicated from greenville KY to sandusky OH would be shifted 50-75 miles west. Ensemble based tracks evenly split between west and east but composite EC/GEM very close to yesterday's composite while GFS continues to oscillate back and forth. I'd bank on it at this point." Highly agree with this - it’s been proven time and time again. Stronger the surface low; farther west it travels. Weak and suppressed - further east. The amount of gulf moisture with this thing is impressive - PWAT’s 1.5”+.... in January! A lot of the 12z guidance really wants this thing to head out east with that massive high pressure moving in quickly - but this is the norm being 100 hours out. Will be lots of flip-flopping in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 What a big thump for Kokomo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 man I'm getting excited here in central Indiana been a long time. Really hope it happens. Great to see some good agreement at this time from models too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Hey Buck....what does the Euro have for Dayton? You talked about the NW gradient....how about us in the Western part of the state? Thanks. Dayton gets 4. NW Ohio smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Dayton also gets like 1" of ZR on the Euro. My gut here was initially this would wiff me to the northwest and I still am worried about that, but with the next shortwave diving in acting as a bit of a kicker and a large high north of the storm, and a general eastward trend with the ensembles the last couple runs, I'm intrigued. Still waiting for the other shoe to drop and for it to inevitably trend farther NW again, but I do think there's a limit for how much it does so. Would personally favor eastern IL/IN/NW OH/MI at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The GEFS have a nice swath of solutions to slower and amped up to a weak wave Ukie. I would say 2/3rd are west if the op with some even bringing the rain/ice line close to here. Only one or two are like the ukie nonsense. Which is a large shift west compared to 06z ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, OHweather said: Dayton also gets like 1" of ZR on the Euro. My gut here was initially this would wiff me to the northwest and I still am worried about that, but with the next shortwave diving in acting as a bit of a kicker and a large high north of the storm, and a general eastward trend with the ensembles the last couple runs, I'm intrigued. Still waiting for the other shoe to drop and for it to inevitably trend farther NW again, but I do think there's a limit for how much it does so. Would personally favor eastern IL/IN/NW OH/MI at this time. I'm actually worried it goes to far southeast in comparison to an amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm actually worried it goes to far southeast in comparison to an amped solution. Definitely possible if we don't get a clean phase...which the majority of models/ensemble members have, but some don't so it's a solution we can't yet discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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