snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Same snow axis as NAM but a little more than half the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: Terrible run for most of us. Yup. Even though I'm in the 'jackpot' zone, it ain't much. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Buckeye, we might need to take the weaker, suppressed solution and run with it . Seems like to me in this situation the stronger/deeper low will just go too far west anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 There is still a lot of model inconsistency it seems like this hour from what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Keep trying, stebo. The main low rides west of the Apps and is clearly visible. There is no true convective feedback this run. The surface reflection is not displaced from the UL’s. Plain and simple. I know you want the storm, but come on. . Seems like arguing for the sake of arguing. No true convective feedback sounds like some attempt to meet some technical criteria. Would you agree that the depiction of a surface low in SC would not be happening if there were a lack of convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, geddyweather said: Oof, that's a rough look on the GFS. Fast, surpressed, and southeast. Navgem coupe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I’m trolling on a storm I was never in the game for? . Thoughts on lake effect potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, wxdudemike said: Buckeye, we might need to take the weaker, suppressed solution and run with it . Seems like to me in this situation the stronger/deeper low will just go too far west anyway. Screw that...the nam gives us everything we could ask for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, wxdudemike said: Buckeye, we might need to take the weaker, suppressed solution and run with it . Seems like to me in this situation the stronger/deeper low will just go too far west anyway. My sentiments exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Maybe the NAVGEM was onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Yup. Even though I'm in the 'jackpot' zone, it ain't much. lol I’ll take my half foot and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Screw that...the nam gives us everything we could ask for! Oops, my b. Thanks for knocking the realism out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GEM shifts east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z CMC shifts east as well. Not liking the trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Seems like arguing for the sake of arguing. No true convective feedback sounds like some attempt to meet some technical criteria. Would you agree that the depiction of a surface low in SC would not be happening if there were a lack of convection?I agree with that.But at the same time like I said, the surface wind reflection is still tucked in with the lower pressure west of the Apps, thus why I say not a true convective feedback scenario. Now if there were not a lower pressure and wind reflection west of the Apps, everything would be displaced and then I’d agree with a toss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I’ll take my half foot and run! All day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 fwiw, would've had some RAOB sampling with key features on the 00z runs (not everything though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z GGEM looks like a good hit for SE IN/NW half of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I'd laugh if the Euro would actually go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I’ll take my half foot and run! Better than nothing. Stupid NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 man i better wake up to some better back to the west runs. This sucks so sick of missing big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Thoughts on lake effect potential?Looks like long duration, but not really anything sig looking on guidance.Haven’t looked at soundings, but my guess is parameters aren’t the best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Damn I would have bet the house the trends would be back nw on tonight's runs. Clearly this is probably a real trend from new data ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Very strong surface high to the west on this GFS run. 1050mb at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Whew, well, after that turn of events I will happily take my CMC 6-8" and run. Seems like everything has taken a major step backwards tonight. Will the Euro save us all? Or pour rocket fuel on the flames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I'd laugh if the Euro would actually go west I could absolutely see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Damn I would have bet the house the trends would be back nw on tonight's runs. Clearly this is probably a real trend from new data ingested. Tonight's euro run will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: I could absolutely see that happen. In a way, I wouldn't be surprised. Especially since the SREFs thinking has to be coming from somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: In a way, I wouldn't be surprised. Especially since the SREFs thinking has to be coming from somewhere I believe the 21z SREF would not have whatever new data the 0z models had though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: In a way, I wouldn't be surprised. Especially since the SREFs thinking has to be coming from somewhere Clown college? In all seriousness, those are fun to look at but very limited utility at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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