buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 so this is what it's like to be nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: so this is what it's like to be nam'd Hey, it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: The right-hand turn into SC is likely wrong, but if you follow it on a straighter path NE from northeast Georgia, it's about the same as 18z. Yea, it doesn't end up in a vastly different place, but that quick jog to the east and back again is weird. The trend is our friend? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM has good idea with the system, the instability is so difficult to pick up on the models, but it's showing some. Notice widespread thunderstorm activity Thursday. There will be severe weather risk with it, with 60+ kt 850mb jet that will more then favorable for wind damge and tornado risk. It won't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, snowlover2 said: Colder air was moving in faster. I would think that would push it more east as shown. Not really because the front stalls anyways. That would have minimal effects other than a larger ice zone. 850mb front isn't moving as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Colder air was moving in faster. I would think that would push it more east as shown. I knew this was going to be south and east based early in the run with a flatter western ridge and lower heights to the east. The northern stream was also pressing more. Wasn't expecting that though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: so this is what it's like to be nam'd I would just ignore the Carolina excursion and it's a slightly colder, but similar track as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Buckeye special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 It’s very common for Columbus to get .50” ZR, .50” of IP, and 16” snow! Man, we’d be shut down for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: so this is what it's like to be nam'd Hey, I'm just happy it didn't do the usual challenge to be the farther west model when it finally gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: wow the nam sucks really bad I just dont get it The convective issue later in the run is screwing things up a bit imo... enough for it to shaft a good chunk of central IN. I wouldn't sweat that yet where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: I knew this was going to be south and east based early in the run with a flatter western ridge and lower heights to the east. The southern stream was also pressing more. Wasn't expect that though lol. In the last panel the heaviest snows are over your house and mine. Pure weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: It’s very common for Columbus to get .50” ZR, .50” of IP, and 16” snow! Man, we’d be shut down for days. Quite honestly we haven't even been able to buy a digital fantasy in two years.... so at least we finally got one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Quite honestly we haven't even been able to buy a digital fantasy in two years.... so at least we finally got one of those That would be the biggest snowstorm in Ohio history. You guys are long overdue too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: In the last panel the heaviest snows are over your house and mine. Pure weather porn. It drops 10” on us in the final three hours of the run. Pure weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That would be the biggest snowstorm in Ohio history. You guys are long overdue too. Nah. That would be April 1901 when a few places got like 42". Even November 1950 would beat it easily- 10"-35" statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nothing out of the ordinary for the nam. 06z will bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Looking forward to the GFS shifting west and giving Ohio rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 How are the winds supposed to be with this thing? Does it ever get into blizzard warning possibilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 yah good ole NAM convective feedback issues, so typical of this model at this range really everyone knows it makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Another convective issue is the the initial low eventually gets over amplified by an erroneously strong LLJ into from OH into New England, this helps incorrectly pull the front east. Just garbage all over the place with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Odd to see 2 of the NAM biases play against each other. Usually colder than others, which could be assumed with this run. But the “medium” to long range of the NAM has a northwest bias and yet it came in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, CoachLB said: Nothing out of the ordinary for the nam. 06z will bring it back. Back to Louisiana and then over to Tennessee and then back again, and then maybe a detour over to South Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, blackrock said: Back to Louisiana and then over to Tennessee and then back again, and then maybe a detour over to South Carolina... It had to get some carolina BBQ to go with its TN whiskey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Another convective issue is the the initial low eventually gets over amplified by an erroneously strong LLJ into from OH into New England, this helps incorrectly pull the front east. Just garbage all over the place with this run. NAM usually has NW bias which is strange. Almost every synoptic system I've seen from the NAM is NW of typical end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM usually has NW bias which is strange. Almost every synoptic system I've seen from the NAM is NW of typical end result. We haven't seen a system like this since the last upgrade coming in from the south with a deep low. So the bias is unknown with low location, though it is apparent convective feedback is still an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: Quite honestly we haven't even been able to buy a digital fantasy in two years.... so at least we finally got one of those Just wait til later when Ji comes in here congratsing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: Quite honestly we haven't even been able to buy a digital fantasy in two years.... so at least we finally got one of those This=heartbreak in next model run but its to be expected I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The NAM didn’t have any convective feedback. Some of you are grasping straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 A new weather model over on TropicalTidbits.com with a look at the upcoming storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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