Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Good old convective feedback. You'd think after all these years that would have been fixed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Windshield wiper special ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 IWX will issue a Special Weather Statement tonight regarding the storm according to their AFD. Noted a tone of cautiousness but they did a good job IMO of breaking down the GFS vs EURO/NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS ticks west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 More precip farther west on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yeah decent shift west on 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The writing is on the wall for an ugly ice storm here in central Ohio. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS has came a long way since yesterday. Wonder if the trend will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam shifts east, GFS west... would be ironic if the GFS ends up the most west model after starting the day the most east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The model bouncing is a joke tbh. Blame it on sampling or w/e but consistency is lacking big time imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I don't know, seems a consensus is building. There are going to be swerves west and east for another 2-3 days as the storm will be cranking up 3 days from now. I just don't see any big moves now considering the models know where the barco zone will set up. Just how well it cranks up. If I was in FTW and TOL, I would be treating myself lol. Way too early to be getting excited in those places. That's the worst way to get yourself all excited just for a big letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 From IWX.... ...Potential Winter Storm Late Friday Through Saturday... A period of active winter weather is expected from Friday morning through Saturday. Rain is expected to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow early Friday morning into before changing to all snow Friday afternoon. Some ice accumulation and slick roadways are possible during this period. Snowfall accumulations are expected to be minor through Friday afternoon with a few inches of snow possible especially along and southeast of Route 24. A stronger storm system will affect the area Friday night into Saturday with a potential of significant snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact track of this system, but at this time the greatest potential of significant snow accumulations appears to be roughly southeast of a line from Litchfield, MI to Logansport, IN Friday night into Saturday evening. In addition, there is a potential of gusty north winds accompanying the storm resulting in blowing and drifting snow and significantly reduced visibilities. Small changes in forecast storm track will dramatically change forecast snowfall amounts. Anyone planning travel across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region should stay updated on later forecasts as confidence in the track of this storm increases over the next few days. Much colder air will move back into the region Saturday night behind this system with increasing chances of lake effect snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Despite the intra-run instability, actually had a bit more consensus being found amongst the models at 12z. Cautiously optimistic here in snow-hole central. If it does materialize it'll end a really perplexing drought we've been in re: snow-storms in January. Toronto hasn't had 6"+ of synoptic snow in January since 2004 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Despite the intra-run instability, actually had a bit more consensus being found amongst the models at 12z. Cautiously optimistic here in snow-hole central. If it does materialize it'll end a really perplexing drought we've been in re: snow-storms in January. Toronto hasn't had 6"+ of synoptic snow in January since 2004 I believe. I was just about to say we had a 6"+ event last February and in December 2014 until I saw "January" lol. I agree, January's have been very uneventful for the last 10+ years, especially the last two. I'll gain optimism by Thursday, still alot of uncertainty for our area. How are the dynamics for any LES enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I was just about to say we had a 6"+ event last February and in December 2014 until I saw "January" lol. I agree, January's have been very uneventful for the last 10+ years, especially the last two. I'll gain optimism by Thursday, still alot of uncertainty for our area. How are the dynamics for any LES enhancement? Famous last words I know but I feel we'll get something decent out of this. Even if it's a ZR/PL palooza followed by 6" of snow ala last night's EURO. Zero LEnhS here as flow has too much northerly component. Hamilton, but especially Niagara, could get some once the cold air deepens a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 53 minutes ago, JayPSU said: The writing is on the wall for an ugly ice storm here in central Ohio. Ugh. Still 3 days to go. It won't take much for this to shift 3 counties to the east or west to get us out of the ZR zone. Snow or rain is fine with me, ZR is not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 twitter hysteria well under way one met call this a "one in a lifetime storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Central Illinois said: twitter hysteria well under way one met call this a "one in a lifetime storm" If the potential were maximized yes, but not currently modeled no. It isn't far off though in some locations with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 twitter hysteria well under way one met call this a "one in a lifetime storm" Yeah if Toledo were to get 15-20” it for sure would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Watching this one from Sydney, Australia, so I don’t have any skin in the game. But it looks like someone is going to get absolutely murdered with ice the way some of these NAM runs look. Pulling for a STL-IND special, been awhile since that area has gotten a good hit. I hear it's a tad bit warm there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: If the potential were maximized yes, but not currently modeled no. It isn't far off though in some locations with the Euro. Yeah, if the max band runs around IND-FWA-TOL and it's the amount of precip that the Euro has been showing, then it would be getting into once in a lifetime there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 31 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Famous last words I know but I feel we'll get something decent out of this. Even if it's a ZR/PL palooza followed by 6" of snow ala last night's EURO. Zero LEnhS here as flow has too much northerly component. Hamilton, but especially Niagara, could get some once the cold air deepens a bit. One thing that maybe in our favour is the strong HP across the Plains which may limit just how far west it can track. Timing is everything, but surface temperatures should cool off relatively quickly through Friday. Let's see! Can't say I'm not excited to be tracking this, been a while. Great input! Not an LES expert, so thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Top analog is 12/23/2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hopefully tonight's runs come in with more of a consensus. I guess the fun thing about there being so much variability is it leaves a lot more people still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Below is a good (free!) site that shows the snowfall amounts for the EURO... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/indiana/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180114-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Long time lurker...first time (in this forum, anyway) poster. I’m am planning on traveling to Indy for work on Saturday but was wondering if traveling into the area on Friday is actually better. Should I travel on Friday or wait till Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Top analog is 12/23/2004. Right idea for sure, I would take this and shift it about 50-75 miles west but definitely a great analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z NAVGEM well south of consensus. Barely anything for north Ohio, Michigan and Upstate New York. Don't know its creditability. It's trended south each run since it's 0z run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Right idea for sure, I would take this and shift it about 50-75 miles west but definitely a great analog. Me too. We got about an inch of ice out of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Long time lurker...first time (in this forum, anyway) poster. I’m am planning on traveling to Indy for work on Saturday but was wondering if traveling into the area on Friday is actually better. Should I travel on Friday or wait till Saturday? Friday would be much better. The earlier Friday, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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