January 11-13 Winter Storm

[jbcmh81]

7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Easton!!!   That's one of the first places I think of when I think of that 2004 storm.    Franklin County was the dividing county between epic icestorm and massive snow storm.   I was right in between.  But Easton got CLOCKED with ice being on the east side.   My folk lived near there and were without power for a week.   If you remember temps dropped into the singles and teens in the wake of that storm which drove the misery factor to a 10 when you figure in all the power outtages.   Then add in the fact that it was a week before Christmas.   Brutal.

I remember waking up that morning to pouring freezing rain.  I was in Circleville for the holidays and all I can remember was spending Christmas eve in the dark next to a gas fireplace.  There was mostly ice there with a few inches of snow.  No power for days.  2004 was through far SE Ohio I believe, which is maybe a bit further west than what is being shown by the GFS/Euro now. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Not sure how the board feels about WxBell images, so if this is bad then please remove the images...but since I'm pretty callous with my subscription...

I would say that's actually decent clustering.  I think it lost a number of western outliers and maybe added a couple of crappier/weak/SE outliers from the last run, but decent clustering there from central IN to the Lake Erie region as a bullseye.  The bigger cluster definitely shifted SE.  

I counted about 20 big hits here on the 00z run and now it's down to a handful, so it's a definite shift.  Still would like to see some better consistency on the op Euro/ensembles and not the windshield wiping.

[IWXwx]

I'm kinda liking where I'm sitting on this one. It would take a substantial wagons west to be overly concerned about ice, especially after eyeing those EPS members.

[NTXYankee]

18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Easton!!!   That's one of the first places I think of when I think of that 2004 storm.    Franklin County was the dividing county between epic icestorm and massive snow storm.   I was right in between.  But Easton got CLOCKED with ice being on the east side.   My folk lived near there and were without power for a week.   If you remember temps dropped into the singles and teens in the wake of that storm which drove the misery factor to a 10 when you figure in all the power outtages.   Then add in the fact that it was a week before Christmas.   Brutal.

Surprisingly I never once lost power, I lived in Little Turtle at the time too and there was no good way to get to Easton, I think the 161 interchange was still being redone.  I remember the cold, it was brutal.  It was the only time I ever remember Easton not being busy two days before Christmas too.

[buckeye]

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I'm kinda liking where I'm sitting on this one. It would take a substantial wagons west to be overly concerned about ice, especially after eyeing those EPS members.

my daughter is in grad school in Marion, IN.

I'm gonna text her a heads up....   knowing her she has no clue.

[OHweather]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I counted about 20 big hits here on the 00z run and now it's down to a handful, so it's a definite shift.  Still would like to see some better consistency on the op Euro/ensembles and not the windshield wiping.

Surprised to see the EPS shifting so much run to run.  There are 3 shortwaves involved which may be contributing.

[wxdudemike]

17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 From what I saw heavy cluster over E.KY and WV.... only 2 stragglers that are north or west of the OH river, both of those are north of cincy.

Yep the cluster of lows is a solid east shift, even the mean is east too. 

[snowlover2]

IND Latest

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
212 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.



.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 211 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

Ensembles are coming into better agreement with respect to the
late week system, although differences in intensity and track are
still apparent.

Most of the ensembles and the operational long range models seem
to be converging on eastern Indiana/western Ohio as the most
likely location for the deformation zone to set up, and resultant
heaviest snowfall potential. Having said that, the spread of the
individual members is still rather large, extending from eastern
Illinois on the western end to eastern Ohio on the eastern end.
There are also still some members that are quite a bit weaker and
more suppressed with this system than the operational long range
models indicate.

Will continue with PoPs for snow Friday night into Saturday to
cover this feature. At least some accumulations appear likely
during this time frame, possibly significant if the stronger
solutions verify.

Ensembles are also indicating increasing potential for a clipper
type system around Sunday night into Monday, with the potential
for light accumulations at that time. Will add some PoPs for light
snow to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

 

[Jackstraw]

19 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I'm kinda liking where I'm sitting on this one. It would take a substantial wagons west to be overly concerned about ice, especially after eyeing those EPS members.

Yes, the icing potential is looking less and less as of right now.  I'm still concerned with suppression to the south and a weaker wave, but it's nice to be on the "good" side of the track if these runs hold.  I guess that's better than being concerned with amped cold rain like we have had the last 3 years.

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, Powerball said:

Definitely pulling for you guys. Looks like this has potential to be the real deal.

Thanks - you helped out..hehehe

1 hour ago, Baum said:

Consensus seems to be converging on a STL-IND-DTX special based on today. 3 days out, and I'm still not to dissapointed where I sit as a lot still to be told in this tale. Just nice to see a big winter storm lighting up the board.Could be worse I could live in Caledonia.

We've bantered about how/why that combo is such an elusive beast. This wild season might just be the one to get 'er done

[Snowstorms]

Barometric pressure may not be that "deep", however there is an extraordinary amount of moisture with this system reaching deep into the Atlantic and Gulf. High resolution models will pick this up better when in range. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Barometric pressure may not be that "deep", however there is an extraordinary amount of moisture with this system reaching deep into the Atlantic and Gulf. High resolution models will pick this up better when in range. 

Personally I will be very interested in the NAM/RGEM once they are within about 36 hours.  This type of setup should be in their wheelhouse.

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Personally I will be very interested in the NAM/RGEM once they are within about 36 hours.  This type of setup should be in their wheelhouse.

Both the NAM and RGEM have been decent this winter, in their own perspective, for various systems, etc. It'll be interesting to see how the moisture is distributed among the system, where the dry slot is, etc. Should certainly see some high ratios in certain areas with those cold temperatures. 

[Powerball]

One thing that occurred to me. If you get that type of moisture in the cold sector, you're definitely going to be looking at some pretty impressive ratios with this storm (despite the wind).

Even in areas near the mixing line, snowflake aggregation should allow for decent ratios.

[GreenBo]

DTX is keeping a very watchful eye. 

 

Big story for the extended period remains the potential for a winter
storm on Friday night into Saturday. An upper shortwave is progged
to move over the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning which will then
track SE over the Rockies and help budge a cutoff low over the Gulf
coast states by Friday. This upper energy will then track up the
Ohio Valley and lead to a developing surface low pressure system
that will track northeastward up the spine of the Appalachians.
Model guidance is still highly variable on the track and strength of
this system as it develops, which has a major impact on which areas
will see accumulating snowfall. The ECMWF has backed off a bit with
its totals over our area but still advertises a significant winter
storm, while the GFS continues to suggest that the system will be
too far east for SE Michigan to see much snowfall at all. Current
thinking is that the best chance for snowfall will be the eastern
portion of our County Warning Area. For now the forecast remains low
confidence as we wait to gather more observational data on the
number of players (particularly the shortwave over the Pacific
Northwest) that will have to come together for our area to see
significant snowfall.

 

 

[nwohweather]

The relative weakness of the low is pretty perfect for this area, so often you see a panhandle hook just wreck Chicago and the western side of the lakes. But that combination with a powerful arctic high over the Northern Plains should keep this over this way.

Still a 50 MB drop between the pressure centers should make winds fairly intense, and blizzard conditions likely in that defo band. This is my greatest worry for NE Indiana, lower MI, and NW Ohio. These are very rural areas that will be buried for around a week by 12-18”

[IWXwx]

52 minutes ago, buckeye said:

my daughter is in grad school in Marion, IN.

I'm gonna text her a heads up....   knowing her she has no clue.

She must attending IWU...my alma mater

[Jackstraw]

Noticed the 12Z Euro tanked temps next week.

[Jim Martin]

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

She must attending IWU...my alma mater

Off topic, but for someone like myself, don't know about you, I did my degree in Accounting and I'm currently working thru my professional designation. Never really saw myself being more than a weather enthusiast. 

[Hoosier]

NAM gets a bit jumpy with the sfc low for a while after 60 hours.  Convection will definitely play a role in this system for better or worse and why I will be interested in the hi-res/convection allowing models as it gets close.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, Powerball said:

One thing that occurred to me. If you get that type of moisture in the cold sector, you're definitely going to be looking at some pretty impressive ratios with this storm (despite the wind).

Even in areas near the mixing line, snowflake aggregation should allow for decent ratios.

The winds are gonna be a concern for getting enormous ratios I think.  But something near 15:1 could still be attainable.

[TugHillMatt]

I am guessing the models have outlined the farthest West and East this storm could go. Hopefully it can become a pretty big storm that spreads snow to as much of the forum as possible.

[JayPSU]

NAM would be an apocalyptic ice storm for central OH, probably followed by a half foot of snow in later panels.

[Jim Martin]

The NWS in Wilmington (OH) already talking about issuing Winter Storm Watches in their Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon.

[snowlover2]

1 minute ago, Jim Martin said:

The NWS in Wilmington (OH) already talking about issuing Winter Storm Watches in their Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon.

ILN Latest

Quote

All eyes will then be focused on the development of low pressure
along the southern end of the front over the lower Mississippi River
Valley Thursday night. Upper level energy is forecast to perturb
this low and allow it to strengthen as it moves northeast across the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and then continue its track northeast to
the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. As this is occurring, the
aforementioned cold front will be slowly pushing southeast into our
CWFA. This scenario will allow cold air to undercut lagging warm air
aloft which will result in a change over to a wintry mix from
northwest to southeast through the day. As we head into Friday
night, frontogenetic forcing is expected to develop somewhere near
the Indiana/Ohio border. Where this sets up will bring the potential
for significant snowfall.  Right now based on latest model blends,
the best potential seems slated for parts of east central Indiana,
the Miami Valley (Dayton area) into west central Ohio. For all other
locations, the transition to snow will occur later on Friday night
which will keep accumulations lower, but could still be enough to
warrant possible Winter Storm Watches in these locations. Most if
not all locations will experience sleet and freezing rain. Overall
ice accumulations should be held down some due to the mix with other
winter weather types. All of this has been placed in the HWO.
Temperatures Friday into Friday night will show a downward trend as
much colder air filters back into the region from the northwest.

For Saturday, low pressure will be pulling away from our region.
Snow early on will taper off by afternoon. CAA will not allow much
if any temperature recover from morning lows. In fact, some
locations may show a gradual downward trend.

Another large scale mean mid level trough will setup across eastern
North America as we head into Sunday/Monday. This will return our
area to frigid temperatures once again. Surface high pressure is
expected to transition from west to east Sunday into Sunday night.

By Monday into Monday night, shortwave energy in the northwest flow
aloft will dig southeast into our region. This will be associated
with another cold front. Have continued with a chance of snow with
this system.

Surface high pressure will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cold

 

[jbcmh81]

6 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

NAM would be an apocalyptic ice storm for central OH, probably followed by a half foot of snow in later panels.

18z looks like it was a hair east of 12z and a bit colder- actually more than a hair.  12z had the low over central Alabama while 18z had it over northeast Georgia.    Trends still good.  There's always the chance that very heavy rates could make the switch to snow faster.

[CoachLB]

NWS Wilmington 
eyes will then be focused on the development of low pressure along the southern end of the front over the lower Mississippi River
Valley Thursday night. Upper level energy is forecast to perturb this low and allow it to strengthen as it moves northeast across the Tennessee Valley on Friday and then continue its track northeast to
the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. As this is occurring, the
aforementioned cold front will be slowly pushing southeast into our CWFA. This scenario will allow cold air to undercut lagging warm air
aloft which will result in a change over to a wintry mix from northwest to southeast through the day. As we head into Friday night, frontogenetic forcing is expected to develop somewhere neartheIndiana/Ohio border. Where this sets up will bring the potential for significantsnowfall.  Right now based on latest model blends,
the best potential seems slated for parts of east central Indiana,
the Miami Valley (Dayton area) into west central Ohio. For all other
locations, the transition to snow will occur later on Friday night which will keep accumulations lower, but could still be enough to warrant possible Winter Storm Watches in these locations. Most if not all locations will experience sleet and freezing rain. Overall ice accumulations should be held down some due to the mix with other winter weather types. All of this has been placed in the HWO.
Temperatures Friday into Friday night will show a downward trend as much colder air filters back into the region from the northwest.

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NAM gets a bit jumpy with the sfc low for a while after 60 hours.  Convection will definitely play a role in this system for better or worse and why I will be interested in the hi-res/convection allowing models as it gets close.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Watching this one from Sydney, Australia, so I don’t have any skin in the game. But it looks like someone is going to get absolutely murdered with ice the way some of these NAM runs look. Pulling for a STL-IND special, been awhile since that area has gotten a good hit.